Phillies vs. Astros Picks, Predictions World Series Game 2: Are We in for Another Slugfest?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 29, 2022 5:57 AM EDT • 2 min 55 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

After dealing the Houston Astros their first postseason loss, the Philadelphia Phillies look to go up 2-0 in the 2022 World Series. Read on for our Phillies-Astros Game 2 picks.

Houston won 106 games in the regular season, while Philadelphia won 87. The 19-win difference is the second-largest between opponents in World Series history (per ESPN Stats & Info). But after Philadelphia's 6-5 Game 1 victory, the Phillies suggest we can throw those win totals out the window.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Saturday’s World Series Game 2 between the Phillies and Astros (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, Draftkings Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Phillies vs. Astros same-game parlay picks!

Phillies vs. Astros Game Info

Date: Saturday, Oct. 29, 8:03 p.m. ET
TV:
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Weather: Indoors

Phillies vs. Astros Odds

Phillies vs. Astros Odds Analysis

Houston ranges anywhere from a -140 to -150 moneyline favorite. Sharp action is on the Astros, who have attracted 58% of the bets and 87% of the cash.

All sportsbooks are in unison with the 7-run total. There has been solid two-way action, with the Over attracting 50% of the bets and 52% of the cash.

Phillies vs. Astros Projected Pitchers

Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA, 1.039 WHIP) vs. Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA, 1.157 WHIP)

Wheeler has been sensational through four postseason starts. He began with just three earned runs allowed through his first 19 1/3 postseason innings. He then was responsible for sending the Phillies to the World Series after limiting the San Diego Padres to two runs on three hits over six innings in the team's NLCS-clinching Game 5 victory.

Valdez surpassed his previous career high in wins (11) by six victories while leading the league in complete games (three). Valdez was also durable while facing a league-high 827 batters and owning an NL-best 0.5 HR/9 rate. His 3.0 BB/9 rate and 3.06 FIP were his best for a full season. He has allowed two earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in two postseason starts.

Phillies vs. Astros Picks

Phillies vs. Astros ML Pick

Phillies F5 (+145) ★★★

This pitching matchup is the only one in which I see Philadelphia having an advantage in this series, but we are limiting this play to the first five innings because of the Phillies’ suspect bullpen.

Philadelphia hit lefties better than righties all season. Against southpaws, the Phillies had a 115 wRC+, .335 wOBA, .324 BABIP, and a .769 OPS. When facing right-handed pitching, those numbers dipped to 102 wRC+, .316 wOBA, .289 BABIP, and .727 OPS.

The only game of Wheeler’s the Phillies lost in October was when they were shut out by the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS, but even in that loss, Wheeler did not allow any runs until the sixth inning. The Phillies ace has allowed just one earned run in the first five innings (20 innings total) in his last four road starts combined, and we expect him to come up big early in Game 2, giving his team another excellent chance to get out to an early lead.

Astros vs. Yankees O/U Pick

Over 7 (+100) ★★

Though Wheeler has a 0.45 ERA through the first five innings of his last four road starts, the O/U split in his starts has been well-balanced all season. The Under is 14-14 in Wheeler’s outings but cashed in just seven of 16 road appearances. In addition, five of his last eight starts saw at least seven total runs scored.

Not only do the Phillies hit lefties better than righties, but their overall numbers against southpaws since the trade deadline rank as some of the best in the league. Philadelphia ranks third in wRC+ (123) and wOBA (.346), and led all teams with a .373 BABIP in that span. The Phillies should have success getting to Valdez in Game 2.

Astros vs. Yankees Prop Pick

Valdez Over 5.5 strikeouts (+100) ★★

Valdez struck out 10 Phillies batters over five innings on 88 total pitches in his final regular-season start on October 5. Philadelphia had a slightly higher K rate against lefties (22.8%) than righties (22.3%), and Valdez is coming off a postseason start against the New York Yankees in which he recorded a career-high 23 swinging strikes, 16 on his curveball alone.

The Astros southpaw may not get to double-digit strikeouts in this start, but will rack up plenty.

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Phillies-Astros picks made 10/29/2022 at 8:23 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”