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Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Props 8-20

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 20, 2024 7:40 AM EDT • 2 min 50 sec read.

Atlanta Braves pitcher Reynaldo Lopez throws against the Philadelphia Phillies as we look at our best Phillies vs. Braves prediction for Tuesday, Aug. 20.
Atlanta Braves pitcher Reynaldo Lopez throws against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Truist Park. Photo by: Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves play the first of seven games against each other over the next 14 days, with the Braves looking to make up a chunk of the seven-game deficit in the NL East division race.

Our Phillies vs. Braves predictions are made with the knowledge that Atlanta was dealt devastating news that Austin Riley will miss the next six to eight weeks with a hand fracture.

Coupled with the fact that the Phillies have ace Zack Wheeler toeing the rubber, it's enough to make Philadelphia -130 road moneyline favorites in this series opener.

First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:20 p.m.ET.

Phillies vs. Braves prediction

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Braves ML (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

The Braves are 7-3 in Reynaldo Lopez’s last 10 starts, and in the three losses, they scored four combined runs. One of the wins in that span was a 6-0 victory over the Phillies on July 7, where Lopez allowed just five baserunners (two hits and three walks) over six innings.

Philadelphia is just 16-21 since July 5, which was actually the opener of a series in which the Phillies dropped two of three in Atlanta. While losing Riley will hurt the Braves, bettors should know he went just 2-for-10 with six strikeouts in that series, though one of his two hits was a home run. 

A winning $10 wager would pay out $21.

Best odds: +110 via Betway | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Phillies vs. Braves player props

MLB picks made Tuesday at 7:07 a.m. ET.

Prediction: Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sensing the urgency of expanding the division lead and putting an early nail in Atlanta’s coffin, the Phillies are throwing three starters on four days of rest. Wheeler has thrived on short rest in his career, as his .679 winning percentage and 1.110 WHIP are better than when he pitches on five or six days’ rest in his career.

Wheeler has also averaged 9.3 K/9 on four days’ rest and faces a Braves lineup with the third-highest strikeout rate (28.4%) in home games against right-handed pitchers since the start of July.

The 62.55% implied probability for this wager makes sense, given that the oddsmakers expect Wheeler to pitch into the seventh inning (the O/U for his outs recorded is 18.5). Thus, I am backing Wheeler to record seven-plus strikeouts for the sixth time in his last eight starts, and a winning $10 wager would pay out just under $6 in profits.

Best odds: -167 via Betway | Implied probability: 62.55%

Prediction: Trea Turner Over 0.5 runs ⭐⭐⭐

Trea Turner is 3-for-5 with a home run in a small sample size against Lopez and is one of two hitters in Philadelphia’s projected lineup with three-plus hits against the righty. He had been 11-for-62 before torching the Washington Nationals for 10 hits in 17 at-bats in the weekend series. Turner scored a run in five of the last six games following a stretch where he did not score a run in six straight.

This is a three-star play, as the red-hot Turner bats towards the top of a loaded Phillies lineup that ranks fourth in the majors with a .322 BABIP in August.

Best odds: -110 via Betway | Implied probability: 52.38%

Phillies vs. Braves odds & game info

  • When: Tuesday, Aug. 20
  • First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
  • Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
  • How to watch: TBS
  • Favorite: Phillies (-130 via Betway)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”