Phillies vs. Padres Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Will Wheeler Dominate San Diego Again?
We make our Phillies vs. Padres prediction for the middle game of a three-game set today between Philadelphia (54-40) and San Diego (51-43). First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 7:35 p.m. ET (FOX).
The Padres are looking for their third straight win in three days as home underdogs, this time listed at +140 with our best sports betting sites. The seasoned veteran starters, Zack Wheeler and Yu Darvish, take center stage tonight, with one being the prominent reason for choosing our Phillies vs. Padres best bets.
- Phillies vs. Padres prediction: Phillies to win (-150 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Best Phillies vs. Padres player props: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 singles (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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✅ Phillies vs. Padres prediction: Phillies to win (-150 via BetMGM)
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Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has made four starts this season with at least seven innings pitched while allowing two or fewer runs and recording 10-plus strikeouts. Not only have two of them come in his last two starts, but one of them was against the Padres just two weeks ago. He is amid one of the best stretches of his career, which is why I am backing Philadelphia to win in my Phillies vs. Padres prediction.
Wheeler is 3-0 with a 0.76 ERA in his last five starts against the Padres. In that span of 35 2/3 innings, he has allowed a minuscule 0.62 WHIP and a 42:2 K/BB ratio.
In Wheeler’s last start - which was his fourth career complete game - he became the first Phillies pitcher in at least 125 seasons with 12-plus strikeouts, no walks, and one hit or fewer allowed in a game. He is now 6-2 with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.77 WHIP, and an 11.4 K/9 in his last 10 starts.
Wheeler ranks third in the majors in ERA (2.07) since Aug. 1 of last season 2024 (min. 150 IP). Since he faces a Padres lineup that entered the series averaging 3.6 runs per game since June 11, the fewest in the NL in that span, I am riding with Wheeler with my Phillies vs. Padres best bet.
💰 Best Phillies vs. Padres player props
✅ Best Phillies vs. Padres player prop: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 singles (+130 via bet365)
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Bryce Harper entered last night’s series opener coming off his first career game with four extra-base hits. However, considering he had just one extra-base hit in the previous 12 games, I do not see him producing one today.
With the Under on his 1.5 total bases juiced as high as -167 at Caesars, backing his singles prop provided much better value as our best Phillies vs. Padres player prop.
Harper is seeing pitches in the zone at the lowest rate of all qualified hitters this season. I expect that trend to continue against Darvish, especially since two of Harper’s four career hits in 15 at-bats off the righty have been home runs. Still, a $13 potential on a winning $10 wager is great value, as Harper has at least one single in four of eight games in July.
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❓MLB betting FAQs
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.
What is the run line in baseball?
The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.
What does moneyline mean in betting?
The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet—just pick the winner.
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