Rays vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds & Best Bets: Tampa Poised to Pounce on Flaherty

A once surging club meets another that won't stop flying high, and we're breaking down the matchup in our Rays vs. Tigers prediction.

The Tampa Bay Rays had been soaring after going 17-10 in June. But their struggles began toward the end of that month and have spilled into July, with the Rays dropping six of their last eight games, including the first of a three-game set last night against the World Series odds contending Detroit Tigers.

But they may be better positioned today against the slumping Jack Flaherty as we make our Rays vs. Tigers best bets ahead of first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET from Comerica Park (FanDuel Sports Network).

• Rays vs. Tigers prediction: Rays to win (+115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Best Rays vs. Tigers player props: Jack Flaherty Under 17.5 outs recorded (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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✅ Rays vs. Tigers prediction: Rays to win (+115 via BetMGM)

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The Rays have been scuffling, but they've been teetering right on the edge between good outcomes and poor ones for much of their recent eight-game run.

Of their six losses during that stretch, only two have come by more than two runs. And overall they still boast the fourth-best run differential in the American League at plus-65, and the seventh-best in all of MLB.

That's an indicator they won't stay down for long, as is their seventh-ranked offense that features a top three in the lineup who all boast an expected slugging above .500 (and far clear in Jonathan Aranda's case at .543).

The narrow results will start going their way again, and Tampa is primed to begin that journey tonight as part of our Rays vs. Tigers prediction. Especially against Jack Flaherty, who's put together a quality season but has allowed three-plus earned runs in four straight starts, including blowups when he was roasted for seven and eight runs, with the latter coming against the Rays.

Take the upset for your Rays vs. Tigers best bet if you're picking a side. And be sure to go with BetMGM, as the Rays are listed as short as +106 through FanDuel.

💰 Best Rays vs. Tigers player props

✅ Best Rays vs. Tigers player prop: Jack Flaherty Under 17.5 outs recorded (-102 via FanDuel)

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We've seen much more impressive outings from Flaherty this season than ones that have gone sideways. So he's certainly earned some leeway, but it's fair to look at the larger sample size of his career and wonder if the regression monster is going to saunter out to the mound soon enough.

He posted a 3.17 ERA last year, which was the second-best output from the 29-year-old who's now in his ninth season. But his 4.99 in 2023 isn't far in the rearview.

The veteran accumulates strikeouts even amid his spiraling, and sits 20th leaguewide in total punchouts while boasting an impressive 11.0 K/9. But those strikeouts can take work and pitches. Combine that with getting knocked around often lately, and his nights can be short.

Flaherty has pitched six complete innings just once in his last four starts, a stretch when he's given up 21 earned runs across 18 innings, including five home runs.

So fade a pitcher Tampa tore apart for eight of those runs while making one of your best Rays vs. Tigers player props, especially since mediocre underlying metrics—most notably, barrel and hard-hit rates that sit in the 17th percentile or lower—seem to be catching up with him.

Looking for a challenge? Make sure to join our home run derby challenge for the All-Star Game festivities.

📈 Rays vs. Tigers betting insights

Here are some betting insights in the hours before first pitch:

• The Tigers are drawing 60% of the action on the moneyline, and the price for them has moved slightly from -125 to about -130
• Some of our best sports betting apps have shifted the total from 7.5 to 8, and action is split almost evenly between the Over and Under
• The Rays are the run line favorites to cover +1.5, and the price for them has been steady at about -200

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❓MLB betting FAQs

How do betting odds work?

Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common. 

What is the run line in baseball?

The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

What does moneyline mean in betting?

The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet—just pick the winner.

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