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Reds vs. Blue Jays Prediction & Player Props 8-19

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 19, 2024 9:39 AM EDT • 2 min 64 sec read.

Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz throws as we look at our best predictions for Reds vs. Blue Jays on Aug. 19.
Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz throws to first to get Kansas City Royals catcher Freddy Fermin out. Photo by: Katie Stratman/USA TODAY Sports.

The Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays begin their only head-to-head series on Monday, and each will be desperate for wins in the three-game series if they hope to have any shot of a late-season playoff push.

Hunter Greene was scheduled to make the start for Cincinnati, but he was placed on the 15-day IL with elbow soreness, and the Reds had not yet named a starting pitcher as of this writing. As a result, the last-place Blue Jays are steep -170 moneyline favorites for this series opener.

First pitch from Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ont., is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET.

Reds vs. Blue Jays prediction

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Blue Jays -1.5 (+115 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐

Entering Sunday, when two MLB teams under .500 went head-to-head, the favorite had won 59% of the time (229-158). Now the Blue Jays send their hottest pitcher - Kevin Gausman - to the mound.

The Jays are 6-0 in his last five starts, with him earning the victory in five, and have outscored opponents by 16 runs in those outings. The Reds have lost two of their last three road series. Cincinnati’s only road series win in that span came against the Miami Marlins, one of three MLB teams with 46 or fewer wins.

I cannot confidently back this play with more than three starts without knowing Cincinnati’s starting pitcher, but given that Toronto has 62.96% implied odds to win outright, getting it at plus odds to win by two or more runs is a great value. A winning $10 wager would pay out $21.50.

Best odds: +115 via Betway | Implied probability: 46.51%

Top Reds vs. Blue Jays player props

MLB picks made Monday at 7:05 a.m. ET.

Prediction: Kevin Gausman Over 18.5 outs recorded ⭐⭐⭐

Gausman has been an innings-eater of late, recording 20-plus outs in five of his last six starts. He's one of three pitchers in the league with two complete games this year, and the secret to his durability is pitching to contact, as he has three or fewer strikeouts in three of his last six appearances.

Because of Gausman’s low strikeout totals of late, I do not find any value in his Over of 5.5 strikeouts, especially at the steep -145 odds. Thus, I am backing him to pitch into the seventh inning again, and a $10 winning wager returns $11 in profits.

Best odds: +110 via Betway | Implied probability: 47.62%

Prediction: Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 stolen bases ⭐⭐⭐

Reds hitters are facing a Blue Jays rotation that has collectively pitched to a 2.72 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, and .203 BABIP in 13 games over the last two weeks. Thus, they know runs will likely be at a premium, especially when facing Gausman, and I expect them to push the envelope on the basepaths against the righty.

Gausman has allowed 18 stolen bases and caught just one baserunner stealing, and De La Cruz is motivated to be the third player since 1988 to steal 80 or more bases in a season, as he is slightly below that pace with a projected 78 at this point. 

This is a three-star play, as De La Cruz has the fourth-fastest sprint speed in the majors, and I expect him to snap his season-long nine-game stolen base drought (he had previously not gone more than eight consecutive games without a steal).

Best odds: +110 via Betway | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Reds vs. Blue Jays odds & game info

  • When: Monday, Aug. 19
  • First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
  • Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ont.
  • How to watch: Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Blue Jays (-170 via Betway)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”