MLB Rookie of the Year Picks: AL and NL Favorites, Values, and Longshots

The 2021 MLB Rookie of the Year races played out very differently in the American and National Leagues. We peruse the odds for 2022 and make our MLB Rookie of the Year picks below.

Heading into the 2022 MLB season, there is already disappointment when it comes to the rookie class. Part of the offseason lockout discussion was supposed to find a way to prevent teams from trying to manipulate the service time of their top prospects; however, that does not seem to be happening.

Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz and Kansas City Royals catcher MJ Melendez were among the biggest names sent back to minor-league camps.

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It is entirely possible that a great rookie can start the season in the minors, get called up, and eventually go on to win the Rookie of the Year. It happens. At the same time, it is really difficult to get excited about star rookies having the start of their MLB season delayed because of what amounts to bureaucratic red tape.

Nevertheless, there will be some exciting first-year players in MLB this season. The uncertainty surrounding rookie performance offers ample opportunity to find value in the betting markets for AL and NL Rookie of the Year. Here are our MLB futures picks for the Rookie of the Year race in both leagues.

American League Rookie of the Year Odds

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AL Rookie of the Year Picks: Favorites

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals (+300 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

The second overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, Bobby Witt Jr., did not make a big splash in rookie ball that year and did not play in 2020. However, he erupted in 2021, slashing .290/.361/.576 while mashing 33 home runs and stealing 29 bases in a season split between Double-A and Triple-A. Witt has been crushing the ball in spring training and is going to start at third base for the Royals right out of the gate, making him a worthy favorite.

Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers (+500 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Spencer Torkelson was the first pick in the 2020 draft. He's coming off a 2021 season in which he combined to hit 30 home runs with a slash line of .267/.383/.582 across three levels of the minors before a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League.

SEE ALSO: MLB MVP Odds and Picks

Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles (+700 via FanDuel)

Drafted first overall by the Orioles in 2019, the 24-year-old catcher is a burgeoning star. Adley Rutschman hit 23 home runs and slashed .285/.397/.502, but he is also dealing with a triceps injury out of spring training. Coupled with the risk of teams inclined to keep their top prospects in the minors longer than necessary, playing time could affect Rutschman’s chances of having the top rookie season in the American League.

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners (+700 via DraftKings)

The 21-year-old Julio Rodriguez has climbed through the Mariners system and split last season between High-A and Double-A. In 74 games between those two levels, he hit 13 home runs and stole 21 bases, with a dominating slash line of .347/.441/.560. He might not be quite as ready to make an impact as the other top contenders, but Rodriguez has a sky-high ceiling and is looking at a good opportunity to play in Seattle.

AL Rookie of the Year Picks: Values

Riley Greene, OF, Tigers (+1100 via DraftKings)

Riley Greene is another Tigers prospect that should see regular playing time immediately. The fifth pick in the 2019 draft elevated his prospect status last season, hitting 24 home runs and stealing 16 bases with a slash line of .301/.387/.534 between Double-A and Triple-A.

Shane Baz, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (+1600 via FanDuel)

Although he will not be ready for the start of the season after having minor arthroscopic elbow surgery, Shane Baz has shown tantalizing potential. In 17 minor league starts last season, split between Double-A and Triple-A, he recorded a 2.06 ERA, 0.801 WHIP, and 12.9 K/9. In three starts for the Rays, he had a 2.03 ERA and 0.675 WHIP with 12.2 K/9. Provided that his elbow issue does not linger, Baz is the best bet for a rookie pitcher to win the American League Rookie of the Year.

SEE ALSO: World Series Odds and Picks

AL Rookie of the Year Picks: Longshot

Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles (+5000 via FanDuel)

It is always a risk to look at players that are not necessarily going to start the season in the major leagues, but the Orioles do not have the pitching to keep Rodriguez in the minors for any longer than necessary. If he can make a smooth transition to MLB, maybe he could make these long odds pay off. The 22-year-old was a first-round pick in 2018 and in 23 minor league starts last season (between High-A and Double-A), Rodriguez was overpowering, with a 2.36 ERA, 0.825 WHIP, and 14.1 K/9.

AL Rookie of the Year Recommendation

As much as Witt is a worthy favorite, he is also not offering much upside at current prices. Maybe take Witt as a safe option before rolling the dice on pitchers like Baz or Rodriguez.

Only one pitcher has won the award in the past 10 seasons – Detroit’s Michael Fulmer in 2016 – which probably says something about how major league teams protect their young arms, but at longer odds, they have elite talent that deserves consideration.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

National League Rookie of the Year Odds

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NL Rookie of the Year Picks: Favorites

Seiya Suzuki, OF, Chicago Cubs (+380 via DraftKings)

A 27-year-old outfielder who has been crushing it in Japan, Seiya Suzuki is going to have an immediate impact on the Cubs, a team that does not lack for attention. Suzuki clobbered 38 home runs last season, his sixth consecutive season with at least 25 home runs, with a slash line of .317/.433/.636.

Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates (+460 via FanDuel)

Oneil Cruz was favored (+330 on DraftKings) before Tuesday’s news that he was being sent down by the Pirates. He came up as a shortstop, but the 6-foot-7 slugger was transitioning to the outfield, and it is difficult to justify the decision to send a top-tier prospect to the minors when the Pirates don’t have impact players ahead of him. Cruz had 17 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 69 minor-league games last season while slashing .310/.375/.594.

SEE ALSO: MLB Team Win Totals

Joey Bart, C, San Francisco Giants (+1400 via FanDuel)

The San Francisco Giants catcher was underwhelming in 33 games in 2020, failing to record a home run while slashing .233/.288/.320, but the 25-year-old has hit consistently in the minors. He posted a .831 OPS across 67 games at Triple-A last year. Considering his 2020 struggles in the majors, he feels risky at shorter odds (+750 on DraftKings).

Bryson Stott, SS, Philadelphia Phillies (+900 via DraftKings)

There is not an obvious job opening for Bryson Stott, unless the Phillies are prepared to start him ahead of Alec Bohm at third base. Maybe they should because Stott has been tearing it up this spring. Last season, he had a slash line of .299/.390/.486, with 16 home runs and 10 stolen bases, across three levels of the minors.

CJ Abrams, SS, San Diego Padres (+1100 via FanDuel)

If CJ Abrams does not start the season in San Diego, even with Fernando Tatis Jr., injured, it is hard to envision a situation in which he would then see enough playing time to be the top rookie in the National League. The sixth pick in the 2019 draft has great long-term potential but he played just 42 games at Double-A last season, slashing .296/.363/.420. Tha was promising, but also not enough to assume that he’s ready to have an instant impact in the majors.

Hunter Greene, SP, Cincinnati Reds (+1000 via DraftKings)

The second pick in the 2017 draft, Hunter Greene appears set to start the season in the Reds’ rotation. The 22-year-old started 21 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, combining for a 3.30 ERA and 1.176 WHIP, with 11.8 K/9. Considering some of the uncertainty among other top contenders in the National League, Greene will be worth watching.

SEE ALSO: MLB Home Run Leader Odds and Picks

NL Rookie of the Year Picks: Longshots

Mackenzie Gore, SP, Padres (+4000 via FanDuel)

The third pick in the 2017 draft, Mackenzie Gore has lost some of the sparkle that surrounded him when he was considered the top pitching prospect in baseball, but the talent remains. In 2021, He made a dozen starts from rookie ball all the way to Triple-A. He finished with a 3.93 ERA, 1.470 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9. That’s not enough to think that Gore will automatically find success in the major leagues, but he has pitched well this spring At long odds, it is at least worth monitoring Gore’s progress.

Seth Beer, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (+5500 via FanDuel)

A first-round pick of the Houston Astros in 2018, Seth Beer has shown power and the ability to take a walk in the minors. In 100 games at Triple-A last season, he hit 16 home runs and slashed .287/.398/.511, and he is starting the 2022 season on the Diamondbacks’ bench. Opportunity is part of the battle when it comes to producing enough to contend for Rookie of the Year, and it looks like Beer will get an opportunity to start the season.

NL Rookie of the Year Recommendation

Wait for the MLB season to start, and for the odds on Oneil Cruz to get longer while he toils in the minors. If he is producing in the minor leagues, jump in before he gets the call to Pittsburgh. The rookie class in the National League is not outstanding so Cruz has a chance to be named the top rookie even though he is ticketed to start the season in the minors. That is not an unfamiliar path.

Where to Bet on MLB Rookie of the Year Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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