Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today: Will Cleveland's Struggles Continue?

Can Detroit extend Cleveland's losing skid to nine games, or is there better value to be found on the board?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: July 5, 2025 12:26 PM EDT • 3 minute read

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today: Saturday, July 5 — Pictured: Cleveland Carlos Santana reacts after striking out - something we expect to see as we highlight the Under in our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction. Photo by Kamil Krzaczynski via Imagn Images.

The Detroit Tigers (55-34) can even the season series with the Cleveland Guardians (40-46) tonight. Cleveland has dropped eight straight, so it's no surprise to see Detroit is a -140 betting favorite on the moneyline according to our best sports betting sites.

However, ahead of 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX) first pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland, our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction finds much better value in the total.

Tigers vs. Guardians prediction: Tigers to win (-134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under prediction: Under 9 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best player prop pick: Spencer Torkelson Over 1.5 total bases (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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✅ Tigers vs. Guardians prediction: Under 9 (-115 via BetMGM)

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Entering yesterday’s series opener, Detroit had 11.5 combined runs per game in its games since June 19th, the second-most in the majors in that span. But Cleveland’s inept offense was a big reason for yesterday’s pitcher's duel, and is also a big reason the Guardians are amid a season-high eight-game losing streak, while falling six games under .500 for the first time since finishing the 2023 season at 76-86.

It does not help Cleveland’s chances of scoring runs that its best hitter, Jose Ramirez, entered yesterday tied for a career-worst 0-for-21 drought. Though he snapped that in the first inning with a solo home run, he is still batting just .177 since his 39-game on-base streak ended June 15.

I am backing the Under with five stars of confidence since Tigers righty Casey Mize joined Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal as the team’s only starting pitchers with sub-3.00 ERAs in June. The Under has also cashed in each of Cleveland’s last four home games against divisional opponents, making it the best value play for this AL Central tilt.

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Betting odds represent the probability of a specific outcome and determine how much money you can win on a bet. There are three main formats: American odds, Decimal odds, and Fractional odds. In the U.S., American odds are most common.

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The run line in baseball is a form of point spread betting unique to MLB. It typically sets a standard spread of 1.5 runs, meaning the favored team must win by at least two runs to cover the run line, while the underdog can lose by one run or win outright to cover.

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The moneyline in betting refers to a wager on which team or player will win the game outright, with no point spread involved. It’s the most straightforward type of sports bet—just pick the winner.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”