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Indiana Fever forward Aliyah Boston (7) runs into Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) as we offer our Aces vs. Fever prediction, expert picks and odds for Friday's WNBA matchup at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Indiana Fever forward Aliyah Boston (7) runs into Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22). Photo by Grace Smith / IndyStar via Imagn.
  • The Indiana Fever host the Las Vegas Aces on Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ION).
  • The Aces are 5-point favorites to beat the Fever across our best sports betting sites after their 11-point win at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Wednesday.
  • We like the Fever to bounce back in a tough spot for Aces star A'ja Wilson.

Here's a look at our best Aces vs. Fever prediction, expert picks and odds for Friday.

Aces vs. Fever expert picks

WNBA picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

Aces vs. Fever prediction

Fever +5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's easy to look at Wednesday's result and chalk up another W for the Aces in this immediate rematch.

I'm not so sure. Even in a double-digit loss, Indiana matched Las Vegas on the boards (34 rebounds each), finished with 40 points in the paint, and shot better inside the arc (22-for-47) than the Aces (21-for-48) - all signs of a tight contest on paper.

Yet the Fever shot an uncharacteristic 7-for-26 from 3-point range with Caitlin Clark (16 points) making just one of her 10 attempts from deep. They also missed six free throws to help fuel that 11-point margin. I don't see that full script playing out twice.

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Bet Indiana to bounce back

Before Wednesday's loss, the Fever boasted the WNBA's third-best home record (11-2) since June 1, outscoring teams by 4.8 points on average while scoring nearly 90 points per game.

Clearly, the Aces are the two-time champions and can make those trends irrelevant in a hurry, but that isn't the team we've seen most of this season. Las Vegas had lost three of its last six road games before that win in Indiana, and A'ja Wilson (27 points) still doesn't quite look right after shooting 39.3% from the floor on Wednesday.

I'm not sure a 40-minute sample is enough to compel me to fade the Fever twice in a row, especially with this line dealing 2.5 points higher than Wednesday's.

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Best Aces vs. Fever player props

Our NEW player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any WNBA prop market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Aliyah Boston Over 9.5 rebounds (-130) ⭐⭐⭐

I've been impressed with Boston's play this season, and especially of late, as she's grabbed double-digit rebounds in two straight and three of the last four.

That's been a trend for a while now - she's averaging 10.4 rebounds over her last 25 starts, and she's cleared this betting total in 14 of those starts (56%).

These -130 odds represent an implied probability of 56.52%, so this isn't a crazy value on paper, but I do expect Boston to keep attacking the glass against an Aces team that ranks below average in rebound rate.

Best odds: -130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 56.52%

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A'ja Wilson Under 27.5 points (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

This is the type of "hold your nose" wager that most won't rush to bet, but I do think there's value at this total, which is one point higher at bet365 than the rest of our best sportsbooks.

Consider this a bet against Wilson's health and motivation after she scored 27 points on Wednesday, which helped her break the WNBA single-season scoring record with four games left in the regular season.

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That came a few days after she sat out the Aces' 75-71 loss to the Liberty with a sore ankle. She obviously shook that off for Wednesday's high-profile matchup with the Fever, but she also finished with her fourth-worst shooting percentage (39.3%) of the season.

I don't expect her or the coaching staff to push for another 30-piece with the playoffs around the corner, especially with the No. 4 seed likely coming down to next Tuesday's clash with the Seattle Storm.

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Aces vs. Fever odds

DraftKingsFanDuelCaesarsbet365
Aces-4.5 (-110)-4.5 (-112)-5 (-110)-5 (-110)
Fever+4.5 (-110)+4.5 (-108)+5 (-110)+5 (-110)

Aces vs. Fever game info

  • When: Friday, Sept. 13
  • Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
  • How to watch: ION
  • Favorite: Aces -4.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Aces-Fever predictions made Thursday at 2 p.m. ET.

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