Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Wimbledon 2025 Expert Picks

Alex de Minaur finally gets his chance to upset Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon, but does the top-ranked Australian have a viable chance?

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: July 7, 2025 4:00 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Wimbledon 2025 Expert Picks — Pictured: The seven-time Wimbledon champion, who headlines our Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds & Best Bet, in action at the All England Club. Photo by Geoff Burke via Imagn Images

Our Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic prediction, odds, and best bet analyze the chances of the top-ranked Australian upsetting the seven-time Wimbledon champion in today's Round of 16 match on Centre Court (8:30 a.m. ET, ESPN).

Djokovic is steadfast on making his sixth consecutive final appearance at the All England Club, while de Minaur is hoping for his second straight quarterfinal berth.

We offer a plus-money set prop and our favorite games pick, with Djokovic the clear betting favorite at our best sports betting sites.

🎾 Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic prediction & best bet

🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best Wimbledon odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Pick to win: Novak Djokovic 3-1 (+270 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Djokovic Over 19.5 games (-124 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Read on for the latest odds and full analysis of our best bets ⤵️

📊 Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic odds: Wimbledon 2025

Latest Wimbledon odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.

Player	Odds to win	Probability
Novak Djokovic	-550	84.62%
Alex de Minaur	+375	21.05%

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🏆 Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic expert pick to win

Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds & Best Bet — Pictured: The seven-time Wimbledon champion in action as we offer our Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet. Photo by Geoff Burke via Imagn Images

✅ Novak Djokovic 3-1 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +270 via BetMGM ($10 to win 27)
🔢 Implied probability: 27.03%

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de Minaur has been waiting for the opportunity to slay the beast at Wimbledon since being forced to withdraw from last year's quarterfinal against the 24-time major champion due to an injury.

And while the 11th seed will be optimistic about his chances after beating the 38-year-old in one of their previous three meetings, de Minaur rarely plays his best tennis against top-10 opponents.

He's 18-54 in such matches. That's nowhere near good enough against the king of grass.

However, de Minaur is versatile, resilient, and arguably the quickest player on tour. He'll have enough to trouble Djokovic momentarily, which is why he should take one, if not two, sets from the GOAT.

BetMGM offers the standalone best odds (+270) across our best sports betting apps. You'll win $27 on a $10 bet, while only profiting $23 at DraftKings, whose odds are the shortest.

💰 Best Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic prop bet

✅ Djokovic Over 19.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -124 via FanDuel ($10 to win $8.06)
🔢 Implied probability: 55.36%

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I'm a massive advocate of this prop for various reasons. First, Djokovic can cash the Over in a straight-sets victory if two of the three sets extend to a tiebreak.

The more likely outcome, though, is de Minaur winning a set to bolster the Over chances. Djokovic would only need to win two games in the set he concedes for the prop to pay out.

You can opt for 20.5 games at BetMGM and DraftKings, with the former offering +105. The plus-money odds are more enticing than chugging a few Pimm's on a sweltering day out at the All England Club.

But I'm sticking with 19.5 games as 20.5 makes it significantly more challenging to hit on a straight-sets victory, requiring three successive tiebreakers.

📺 How to watch Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic: Wimbledon 2025

📍 Date: Monday, July 7
🕘 Time: 8:30 a.m. ET
🏟️ Location: All England Club (London)
📡 How to watch: ESPN, ESPN+

💡 More Wimbledon predictions

Mirra Andreeva vs. Emma Navarro prediction
Jannik Sinner vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego prediction
Alex de Minaur vs. Novak Djokovic prediction

💵 Best tennis betting sites

Want to bet on Wimbledon 2025? Check out the best sportsbook promos for this season's summer major:

FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.