2024 Ally 400 Expert Picks & Predictions: Hamlin Wins Pole at Nashville, Favorite by NASCAR Betting Odds

Denny Hamlin is the favorite by the Ally 400 odds, and he leads our Ally 400 expert picks for Nashville Superspeedway based on the best NASCAR odds from our best sports betting sites.

Surprise, surprise: Denny Hamlin won the pole at Nashville Superspeedway on Saturday, and he enters today's race as the favorite to win the 2024 Ally 400 at 3:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

Hamlin entered this weekend with the second-best NASCAR Cup Series championship odds to win his first-ever championship, and he was the best driver on the track Saturday to capture just his second pole of the season. Josh Berry, a hometown favorite and 18/1 long shot, joins Hamlin on the first row.

Hamlin was our best bet to win this race with +550 pre-qualifying odds, but he's now a short favorite over Kyle Larson and teammates Martin Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell - whom we predicted to lead Joe Gibbs Racing to a win in last week's USA Today 301 picks and preview.

We still have our eyes on Hamlin and another JGR driver ahead of today's race. Here's a look at the latest 2024 Ally 400 odds, favorites, and picks to win:

Odds to win Ally 400 2024

(Post-qualifying Ally 400 odds as of Sunday, June 30 at 2 p.m. ET. | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

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Nashville Superspeedway track analysis

After NASCAR's final points race at Fairgrounds Speedway in 1984, the Cup Series went nearly 40 years before returning to the Nashville area in 2021, when Ally sponsored a new race at Nashville Superspeedway.

Kyle Larson won the first race at this 1.33-mile track, which is more of a cookie-cutter tri-oval than the "superspeedway" its name implies. In fact, it's roughly half the size of notable superspeedways like Daytona and Talladega, with 14 degrees of banking on turns and a concrete surface.

We've seen a new winner during all three races at this track, which stands out on the NASCAR calendar because there are few comparable tracks on the Cup Series circuit. While Bristol, Dover, and Martinsville feature concrete surfaces like Nashville, drivers with a strong showing at Kansas Speedway also tend to perform well at this track.

Ally 400 predictions, race preview

Picks made Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET prior to practice or qualifying. Odds listed here may vary from current prices.

As is the case anytime the Cup Series heads to a cookie-cutter intermediate track, Kyle Larson (+500) and Denny Hamlin (+550) are the unsurprising favorites to take the checkered flag in NASCAR's fourth-ever race at Nashville Superspeedway.

Larson won the first race here in dominant fashion, leading 264 of 300 laps in his 2021 championship season. Yet he hasn't led a lap at either of the last two Nashville races in the Next Gen car, and he's the most expensive driver in the field. That's a hard pass for me.

Instead, I really like Hamlin's chances to score his fourth win of the season. Yes, he's finished 24th or worse in three straight races, but Hamlin has won each of his last three events on concrete and is two-for-two this season. He also led the most combined laps (195) in the two Nashville races in the Next Gen car with the second-best average run position, which is why he's my "anchor bet" for Sunday's race.

You can't discuss this race without mentioning Ross Chastain (+950), who won the Ally 400 last year and has finished top-five in all three Nashville races. He's one of my favorite long-shot bets each week, but I can't stomach these short odds on him to win. So I'd rather bet him to extend that top-five streak (+125) after leading 99 laps last time.

Speaking of weekly dark-horse drivers I love, could this finally be the week Ty Gibbs (+2500) breaks through for his first career win? He's sputtered of late, but Gibbs has run well on comparable tracks, leading 137 laps at Bristol with a top-10 finish on the concrete track there and at Dover. Even if he doesn't win, I like his chances for a top-10 finish (+100).

If you're looking for a real dart throw, Alex Bowman (+5000) - the driver of the No. 48 Ally car - is a trendy pick at surprisingly long odds to represent the race's sponsor in victory lane.

While he hasn't finished better than 14th at Nashville, Bowman ran well at Bristol (fourth) and Dover (eight) this season, and his 10 top-10 finishes are tied for the third-most in the entire field. I'm throwing a few bucks on him to once again finish in the top 10 (+220) and a (much) smaller sprinkle on a long-shot victory.

Ally 400 expert picks to win

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

• Denny Hamlin (+550 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Ty Gibbs (+2500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
• Alex Bowman (+5000 via BetMGM) ⭐

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Ally 400 props, best bets for Sunday

• Toyota to win (+135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Ross Chastain top five (+125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Ty Gibbs top 10 (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐ ⭐
• Alex Bowman top 10 (+220 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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Past Ally 400 winners

How to watch Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway

• Date: Sunday, June 30 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Track: Nashville Superspeedway (Lebanon, Tenn.)
• Length: 1.33 miles (300 laps, 400 total miles)
• How to watch: NBC
• Defending winner: Ross Chastain (+1800 via FanDuel)

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