Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Wimbledon 2025 Expert Picks

Carlos Alcaraz looks for his 18th straight victory at the All England Club as we offer two tasty picks for his Round of 16 match against 14th seed Andrey Rublev.

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: July 6, 2025 4:50 AM EDT • 4 minute read

Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Wimbledon 2025 Expert Picks — Pictured: The two-time defending Wimbledon champion headlines our Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction, Odds & Best Bet. Photo by Susan Mullane via Imagn Images

Our Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction and best bet expect the Spaniard to win his 18th straight match at the All England Club, but how much of a fight will the 14th-seeded Russian put up?

Alcaraz, the Wimbledon odds favorite, is also the behemoth front-runner across our best sports betting sites to move on to the quarterfinals.

Today's Round of 16 match starts at about 11:10 a.m. from Centre Court (ESPN).

🎾 Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction & best bet

🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best Wimbledon odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

✅ Pick to win: Alcaraz 3-1 (+250 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Carlos Alcaraz Over 19.5 games (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Read on for the latest odds and full analysis of our best bets ⤵️

📊 Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds: Wimbledon 2025

Latest Wimbledon odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.

Player	Odds to win	Probability
Carlos Alcaraz	-1200	92.31%
Andrey Rublev	+650	13.33%

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🏆 Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz expert pick to win

✅ Alcaraz 3-1 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +250 via BetMGM ($10 to win 25)
🔢 Implied probability: 28.57%

Up To $1,500 First Bet

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

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As Fabio Fognini found out, it's almost impossible to win three sets against Alcaraz at Wimbledon.

The two-time defending champion hasn't, however, been flawless thus far at the All England Club, winning only one of his three matches in straight sets.

That sweep came against qualifier Oliver Tarvet, who was more out of his depth than a calculus major writing a romance novel.

Meanwhile, Rublev has found some consistency. After battling through four-set matches in the first two rounds, he dominated Frenchman Adrian Mannarino 7-5, 6-2, 6-3. With a fairly impressive 23-12 record, grass is arguably the Russians' best surface.

DraftKings, bet365, and FanDuel offer +220, eclipsed by BetMGM's +250, the longest odds our best sports betting apps, where a winning $10 bet will profit $22.

💰 Best Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz prop bet

✅ Carlos Alcaraz Over 19.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -105 via BetMGM ($10 to win $8.47)
🔢 Implied probability: 51.22%

Although they have only played each other three times, Rublev has enjoyed some success against the sensational Spaniard, winning at the ATP Masters 1000 in Madrid by two sets to one. That victory was on clay, which Rublev slightly prefers to grass.

Alcaraz won the other two matches on hard court, both in straight sets. However, Rublev took Alcaraz to a tiebreak during the last meeting at the Nitto ATP Finals in 2024.

While a four-set victory is the best and most likely way to cash this prop, Alcaraz can go over the total in a straight-sets win if there are two tiebreaks.

BetMGM is again ahead of our other best sportsbooks, with its -105 odds superior to FanDuel's -118 and DraftKings and bet365's -120.

📺 How to watch Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Wimbledon 2025

📍 Date: Sunday, July 6
🕘 Time: Approximately 11:10 a.m. ET
🏟️ Location: All England Club (London)
📡 How to watch: ESPN, ESPN+

💵 Best tennis betting sites

Want to bet on Wimbledon 2025? Check out the best sportsbook promos for this season's summer major:

FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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Written by:
Gary Pearson

Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.