Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff Predictions & Odds for 2025 French Open Final
World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 2 Coco Gauff each vie for their first-ever titles at Roland Garros when they meet at the French Open final on Saturday. The action at Court Philippe-Chatrier begins at 9 a.m. ET on Saturday (TNT).
This is the first Women’s French Open final since 2013 to feature the top two-ranked players in the world, and Sabalenka is the -200 moneyline favorite at our top sports betting sites. Our Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff predictions back the underdog to win outright, and we also make our best pick on the player games won market.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff predictions
- Pick to win: Coco Gauff (+162 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best pick: Coco Gauff to win Over 12.5 games (+145 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff odds
(Odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
| Aryna Sabalenka | Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -190 | +160 |
| Spread | -3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-130) |
| Over/Under | Over 21.5 games (-130) | Under 21.5 games (-110) |
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff pick to win
Coco Gauff ⭐⭐⭐
There is not much to glean from the head-to-head meetings between Sabalenka and Gauff, as they have split their previous 10 encounters.
Sabalenka won their most recent meeting in Madrid this year, but Gauff was victorious in their most high-profile matchup to date (the 2023 US Open final). Gauff also has the slight advantage of this being her second-ever final at Roland Garros, while this is Sabalenka's deepest run at the French Open.
Though it came against a surprise opponent in unseeded Lois Boisson, it is hard to ignore how efficient Gauff was in her semifinal match while facing the obvious crowd favorite. She won 70% of her second service points and converted six of seven break-point opportunities.
Goff still won the first set 6-1 in 35 minutes despite a dreadful first serve percentage of 39%, but the most important thing is that she got off the court in 69 minutes total. Sabalenka spent an extra 70 minutes on court in a grueling semifinal against Swiatek.
Gauff is the youngest player to reach the finals in Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros in the same year. She was my pre-tournament pick, and there is no reason to sway from that now that she has reached the final while dropping only one set along the way.
Gauff is 3-1 outright as an underdog this season, and there are few ways to find better value on the American than by backing her to win outright. I am headed to bet365 for this play, as it is the only top sports betting site offering better than +160 odds on the underdog.
Best odds: +162 via bet365 | Implied probability: 38.17%
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Best Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff pick
Gauff to win Over 12.5 games ⭐⭐⭐
Gauff may have only dropped one set this tournament, but has still gone over this projected total in three of her previous four matches, thanks to tiebreak wins or sets that ended 7-5.
She has won 13-plus games in seven of the 10 head-to-head meetings with Sabalenka, making the +145 odds at BetMGM seem like a steal.
There are several avenues to cash this bet, with a straight-set win that involves a 7-5 or 7-6 set. However, we would likely still cash this bet no matter who wins the match if it goes three sets. Thus, this wager could act as a solid hedge to a Gauff moneyline play.
Best odds: +145 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 40.82%
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff H2H stats
| Aryna Sabalenka | Stat | Coco Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Matches won | 5 |
| 3 | Wins in straight sets | 2 |
| 13 | Sets won | 12 |
| 127 | Games won | 129 |
| 1 | Wins on clay | 1 |
French Open final match info
- When: Saturday, June 7 (9 a.m. ET)
- Where: Court Phillippe-Chartier (Paris)
- How to watch: TNT
- Favorite: Sabalenka (-200 via DraftKings)
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