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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng Predictions & Odds for 2024 Australian Open Final

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 26, 2024 12:09 PM EST • 2 min 63 sec read.

Saturday's Australian Open finals pit No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka against No. 12 seed Qinwen Zheng in a mismatch on paper, and we offer our best Sabalenka vs. Zheng prediction for the Australian Open Final.

Just three women have won back-to-back Australian Opens this century (Jennifer Capriati, Serena Williams, and Victoria Azarenka). Aryna Sabalenka looks to add her name to that list Saturday against underdog Qinwen Zheng after winning her maiden Grand Slam at the Australian Open last year.

Though Sabalenka was a chalky pick to reach the final with the second-shortest pre-tournament odds at our best sports betting apps, Zheng is somewhat of a surprise finalist in just her ninth overall Grand Slam appearance.

Zheng went 2-2 in her four previous Australian Open appearances before this year and joins Li Na as the second Chinese player to ever reach a Grand Slam final, according to tennis journalist Jose Morgado. Can she upset the heavily favored Sabalenka in Saturday's final?

Here are our best Sabalenka vs. Zheng predictions for the 2024 Australian Open final (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng odds

(Odds via bet365)

Aryna SabalenkaQinwen Zheng
Moneyline-600+450
Spread-5.5 games (-150)+5.5 games (+110)
Over/UnderOver 19.5 total games (-125)Under 19.5 total games (-110)

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng prediction

Aryna Sabalenka Under 12.5 games won (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sabalenka has become the most feared hard-court player on the women’s circuit, as this is her third straight hard-court Grand Slam final when factoring in last year’s runs at the Australian Open and US Open.

The favorite's 2024 Australian Open campaign has been downright dominant, winning all 12 sets played, and being pushed past nine games in a set only once (a 7-6 first-set tiebreak against Coco Gauff in the semifinals). However, even that set could have been wrapped up earlier, as Sabalenka was broken when serving for the set at 5-4.

Sabalenka is 29-3 in her previous 32 Grand Slam matches, including a 13-match winning streak at the Australian Open. Her experience of winning on this stage before against a 21-year-old who advanced past the fourth round just once before this season is a big reason why she is a heavy -500 moneyline favorite in this match.

To bet on Sabalenka to win in straight sets breaks the bank too much, as BetMGM offers -190 odds for Sabalenka to win two sets to none. Additionally, DraftKings has Sabalenka as a -380 favorite to win each set, and the Under on 2.5 sets played is juiced to -275.

Thus, we had to get creative at FanDuel with this wager to optimize our returns. Since we fully expect Sabalenka to win in straight sets, the only way this wager does not cash is if she wins one of the sets in a tiebreak.

We're willing to take that risk since Gauff is the only player to push her to that limit this tournament, and Sabalenka cruised to a 6-1, 6-4 victory against Zheng in the quarterfinals of last year’s US Open. In that match, Sabalenka did not face a single break point and won 20 receiving points compared to Zheng’s nine.

Australian Open final best odds

FanDuel (-118)

DraftKings FanDuel BetMGM Caesars bet365
12.5 12.5 12.5 N/A12.5
Over (-105)/Under (-135) Over (-112)/Under (-118) Over (-110)/Under (-125) N/AOver (-110)/Under (-125)

Under backers will find the best value for the number of games Sabalenka will win at FanDuel, as other competitors like DraftKings are juiced much higher to -135 in comparison. There are opportunities to hedge on this wager with live betting, as well, especially if it appears either set is headed toward a tiebreak.

DraftKings has props for the correct score of the first set, and Sabalenka to win 7-6 has +700 odds, while Zheng’s odds to win in a tiebreak are +1100. Thus, if both players are on serve midway through the first set, it may be wise to sprinkle a little on each of these props, as the odds will still likely be +200 or greater for each player at that point.

Trends also indicate that Zheng’s previous four WTA Finals have gone Over the projected games line and that Sabalenka has failed to cover the game spread in eight of her previous 10 WTA Finals, so those are other props bettors may want to look at that do not break the bank either.

Bettors can head to DraftKings for a 50% boost for one Australian Open live bet, so be sure to use our exclusive DraftKings promo code to take advantage of that offer!  

Australian Open final match info

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 27 at 3:30 a.m. ET
  • Where: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • How to watch: ESPN

Sabalenka-Zheng pick made Thursday at 10:25 a.m. ET

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”