NASCAR Betting Odds at Charlotte: Bank of America ROVAL 400 Predictions, Expert Picks & Long Shots
One week after a race that included the biggest crash in NASCAR history, the Round of 12 concludes today at 2 p.m. ET (NBC) with the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
- Shane van Gisbergen, a noted road course specialist, is the consensus favorite across our best sportsbooks after winning the pole for today's race
- Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, and William Byron have the best odds among NASCAR playoff drivers ahead of this elimination race
- We're targeting Chevrolet and a few previous winners at this track as part of our best NASCAR prop bets
Here's a look at our Bank of America ROVAL 400 predictions, expert picks, and long shots based on the NASCAR betting odds entering raceday.
NASCAR odds at Charlotte ROVAL
Charlotte raceday odds from our best sports betting sites; last updated Oct. 13
| Driver | Odds (BetMGM) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shane van Gisbergen | +240 | 29.41% | $24 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Tyler Reddick | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Kyle Larson | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| William Byron | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Austin Cindric | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Chase Elliott | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Christopher Bell | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Joey Logano | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Daniel Suarez | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
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2024 Bank of America ROVAL 400 predictions, expert picks
NASCAR picks made Sunday at 6:30 a.m. ET; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Chevrolet to win (-160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Shane van Gisbergen to win (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Chase Elliott to win (+1200 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Christopher Bell to win (+1400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
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How to bet NASCAR today at Charlotte ROVAL
What has already been an unpredictable NASCAR playoffs will get even more chaotic today in an elimination race at the Charlotte ROVAL.
The 2.28-mile road course has seen a facelift ahead of its seventh race in the Cup Series, as a sharper Turn 7 and harder elevated curbing on the chicanes should slow the action to a grinding halt around some of the most critical turns.
This is a race that should heavily favor experienced road racers, which is why Shane van Gisbergen is the heavy favorite. It's also why we are so high on Chevrolet in our Bank of America ROVAL 400 preview:
Stars aligning for Chevy at ROVAL
Since Charlotte Motor Speedway was reconfigured for an annual road race in 2018, Chevrolet has dominated this circuit with four wins in six tries - including A.J. Allmendinger's win last year as a non-playoff spoiler in the Round of 12 finale.
He's the second favorite this year behind van Gisbergen, who swept the poles this weekend across the Xfinity Series and Cup Series. He finished third in Saturday's race behind Sam Meyer and Allmendinger, and ahead of Austin Hill in a 1-2-3-4 finish for Chevy.
Hendrick Motorsports drivers Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott - who combined for three straight wins here from 2019-21 - join those other two Cup Series drivers as four of the top five favorites heading into today's race. They all qualified in the top seven, too.
That's a lot of firepower for Chevrolet, which is priced as short as -210 to win this race at FanDuel with a 67.74% implied probability of a repeat victory.
On the other hand, these cheaper -160 odds via bet365 would yield a $6.25 profit on a winning $10 bet. That may not sound like much, but given Chevrolet's dominance on this track and deep roster of elite road racers, it's a value bet worth making.
Don't sleep on Bell at Charlotte
Of the non-Chevy drivers, I can't help but think that Bell is being overlooked in the market after a strong run in the Round of 16 and the entire regular season.
The No. 20 has finished in the top seven in each of the last three weeks and six of the last seven. The lone outlier came at Watkins Glen, where he was spun out by Austin Dillon but still finished 14th on the day.
Bell was in position to win the road race at Austin and street race at Chicago earlier this season, and he's one of five drivers with a win at the ROVAL after taking the checkered flag two years ago.
He was in contention to win last year's race, too, finishing fifth in Stage 1 and second in Stage 2 before a late incident led to a 15th-place finish.
He doesn't need a win today to advance to the Round of 8, which is why I'm a little more interested in Bell to finish in the top five (+180 via Caesars) or lead the field of Toyota drivers (+240 via DraftKings).
That said, I do see value in these outright +1400 odds via BetMGM, which would turn a $10 bet into a $140 profit if he wins here for the second time in three years.
Will we see overtime?
I've mentioned this bet every week for a month now, and I can't stop now after it cashed once again following a crazy finish at Talladega.
That marked the ninth time in the last 14 weeks (64.3%) that we've seen overtime, which happens anytime there's a caution within the final few laps and the race wouldn't be able to finish under the green flag.
As drivers get more aggressive late and the stakes are raised with each passing week, it feels like the potential for chaos grows. Yet Caesars continues to offer this prop at plus money, with a $10 bet returning a $20 profit if we see overtime again this week.
The first road race of this postseason needed overtime, and I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if we see some late-race mayhem in this one - especially with the controversial changes to the track around Turns 7 and 16.
NASCAR long shots today at Charlotte ROVAL
Road races aren't often the best ones to bet on a long-shot winner, but the changes to the Charlotte ROVAL could mean more chaos than ever before.
Here are a few drivers I'm targeting at BetMGM in case all hell breaks loose in today's race:
Ty Gibbs (+3000)
Gibbs has always been a talented road racer, and Joe Gibbs Racing always seems to perform well on difficult road courses like this one.
Gibbs, a Charlotte native, finished second at the ROVAL in his final Xfinity Series race here two years ago, and he finished fourth in last year's Cup Series race.
He has two top-three finishes at non-ovals this year as he seeks his first career win in NASCAR's top series. If he gets it today, he'd turn a $10 bet into a $300 profit.
Kyle Busch (+3000)
Busch has been fighting near the front over the final dozen laps seemingly every week since the Olympic break in August, posting four top-eight finishes while leading 89 laps over the last eight weeks.
Busch has finished in the top four in three consecutive races at the Charlotte ROVAL, running in the top 10 in both stages last year en route to a third-place finish.
He's +325 for a top-five result at Caesars, while a $10 bet at BetMGM on him to win the race would return $300.
Ross Chastain (+3500)
With the redesigned ROVAL offering more passing opportunities than ever, I like Chastain's chances of fighting for an early lead and holding off his competitors late in the race.
He's employed a similar strategy in each of the previous three road races at Austin (seventh), Sonoma (fifth), and Watkins Glen (fourth) - three of his six top-10 finishes in his last eight road-course races.
Chastain is priced at +130 to finish in the top five at bet365 and +425 for a top-10 finish at Caesars, while a $10 bet at BetMGM pays $350 if he wins the race.
Best NASCAR long shots at Charlotte ROVAL
- Ty Gibbs (+3000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Kyle Busch (+3000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
- Ross Chastain (+3500 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
Best NASCAR prop bets at Charlotte ROVAL
- Over 3.5 Chevys in top 10 (-160 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Race to go to overtime (+200 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Christopher Bell top five (+180 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Christopher Bell top Toyota (+240 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Bank of America ROVAL 400 past winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | A.J. Allmendinger | Kaulig Racing |
| 2022 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2019 | Chase Elliott | Hendrick Motorsports |
| 2018 | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske |
How to watch NASCAR at Charlotte: Bank of America ROVAL 400
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 13 at 2 p.m. ET
- Track: Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course (Charlotte, N.C.)
- Length: 2.28 miles (109 laps, 252 total miles)
- How to watch: NBC
- Defending winner: A.J. Allmendinger
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