Belmont Stakes AI Predictions 2025: ChatGPT's Pick to Win & Full Finish Order

After picking the Kentucky Derby winner, we're offering our 2025 Belmont Stakes AI predictions for the winner and full finish order of today's 157th running of the Belmont Stakes at 7:04 p.m. ET (FOX) in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Using the same ChatGPT model we trained to correctly predict Sovereignty (7-1) to win the Kentucky Derby, we utilized OpenAI's "Deep Research" function to study mass amounts of historical data, statistical trends, and the latest Belmont Stakes odds and post positions - all before generating our AI pick to win, favorite long shot, and projected finishing order for the race.

🏆 AI pick to win Belmont Stakes 2025

As with any output from a large language model, these AI-generated Belmont Stakes predictions should be viewed as supplementary data to build your exacta, trifecta, and superfecta bets. But knowing the process behind ChatGPT's picks, I did bet these all myself at FanDuel Racing.

Here's what AI says will happen this weekend at Saratoga Race Course:

🏇 ChatGPT's prediction: Rodriguez (No. 3)

📊 Morning-line odds to win: 6-1
📈 Latest odds to win: 6-1

Rodriguez (6-1) brings elite early speed and tactical class to the Belmont, with a 111 Equibase figure in his gate-to-wire Wood Memorial win - easily the fastest number in this field. He draws ideally in post 3 and could control the tempo up front, especially with only one other true speed threat entered.

His pedigree (by Authentic) supports the 1 1/4-mile distance, and trainer Bob Baffert excels with fresh speed horses in Triple Crown races. With Hall of Famer Mike Smith aboard and a chance to dictate terms, Rodriguez is a serious wire-to-wire threat if he shakes loose early.

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💰 Best Belmont Stakes long shot

🏇 ChatGPT's best long-shot pick: Crudo (No. 5)

📊 Morning-line odds to win: 15-1
📈 Latest odds to win: 15-1

Crudo (15-1) is a fast-rising colt with strong front-end speed and back-to-back wins, including a dominant performance in the Sir Barton Stakes. He’s bred for this distance as a son of Justify and owns a sky-high wet-track pedigree rating, which could prove key if rain hits.

With elite connections in trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez, Crudo could control the pace or sit just off it. If the race shape tilts in his favor, he’s capable of pulling a major upset at a big price.

📊 AI-simulated Belmont Stakes finish order: Win, place, show predictions

Here’s how ChatGPT projects the full eight-horse field to finish in the 2025 Belmont Stakes, along with the morning-line Belmont Stakes odds for each horse at FanDuel Racing.

🏇 2025 Belmont Stakes horses & field analysis

Here is ChatGPT's field analysis of the eight horses set to contest the 157th Belmont Stakes, listed by post position order:

1. Hill Road (10-1)

✅ Strengths: Hill Road is an improving closer with a sharp win last out in the Peter Pan Stakes, where he rallied from far back to score impressively. He’s bred for distance (Quality Road x Lemon Drop Kid mare) and has a top Equibase speed figure of 99. Drawing the rail helps him save ground, and Irad Ortiz Jr. is a major plus - he won the 2022 Belmont on a similar late runner. If the early pace is honest, Hill Road has the turn of foot to take advantage.

❌ Weaknesses: His deep-closing style is a poor fit for Saratoga’s 1¼-mile configuration, where only a small percentage of races are won from far back. In an 8-horse field, he risks falling too far behind without enough traffic to collapse. His Peter Pan win came against a weaker group, and he’s still unproven against elite company. He’ll need both a fast pace and for the favorites to underperform.

2. Sovereignty (2-1)

✅ Strengths: Sovereignty is the Kentucky Derby winner with a deadly late kick and top-tier stamina. He beat Journalism convincingly on a sloppy track and is fresher after skipping the Preakness. With Bill Mott training and a favorable post, he should be poised to make another big run from midpack.

❌ Weaknesses: The smaller field and slower projected pace could dull his closing style. He’s been off for five weeks and may not get the same setup that fueled his Derby win. While consistent, his recent workouts haven’t wowed observers, and he’ll need to stay close enough early to catch the speed.

3. Rodriguez (6-1)

✅ Strengths: Rodriguez has serious early speed, an ideal inside post, and a top-tier pace jockey in Mike Smith. He dominated the Wood Memorial on the front end, earning a 111 speed figure - the highest in the field. If he clears or controls the tempo, he could wire the race, especially on a speed-friendly Saratoga surface.

❌ Weaknesses: He’s coming off a two-month layoff after missing the Derby due to a foot bruise, so fitness is a question. Crudo may force a contested pace, which Rodriguez didn’t face in the Wood. He’s untested at this distance or against top-tier foes, and the pressure of a Grade 1 Belmont could expose any lingering rust.

4. Uncaged (30-1)

✅ Strengths: Uncaged is 2-for-2 on wet tracks, including a win at Saratoga, and could move up if rain hits on race day. His pedigree supports stamina and slop handling, and he gets top connections in Todd Pletcher and Luis Saez. He’ll try to stalk the pace and take advantage if the leaders falter or the track turns messy.

❌ Weaknesses: He was a distant sixth in his only stakes try and has never shown the speed or class of the top contenders. His best races came in one-turn events on muddy tracks, and he’s unproven at this distance or level. On fast dirt, he looks overmatched and likely needs chaos to factor at all.

5. Crudo (15-1)

✅ Strengths: Crudo brings early speed and upside as a lightly raced colt with two dominant wins around two turns. His front-running style could give him a tactical edge at Saratoga, especially if he clears Rodriguez early. With a strong pedigree and Hall of Fame connections, he’s a live longshot with potential to steal the race or hold on for a piece.

❌ Weaknesses: He’s never faced this level of competition and is taking a huge class jump off an ungraded stakes win. The 1¼-mile distance is a question mark, and if he gets into a speed duel with Rodriguez, he could tire late. Crudo must improve again to contend and will need the race to unfold perfectly to spring an upset.

6. Baeza (4-1)

✅ Strengths: Baeza is a steadily improving colt with strong Grade 1 form, finishing close behind Sovereignty and Journalism in the Derby and Santa Anita Derby. His tactical style suits Saratoga, and he’ll likely sit in a perfect spot just behind the leaders. With Flavien Prat aboard and a classic-distance pedigree, he’s poised for a breakthrough performance.

❌ Weaknesses: Despite strong efforts, Baeza has yet to beat top rivals and owns just one career win, raising questions about his finishing instinct. He’s new to Saratoga, and though he handled slop in the Derby, wet-track breeding isn’t a strength. He’ll need to time his move perfectly to avoid settling for another minor placing.

7. Journalism (8-5)

✅ Strengths: Journalism has won 5 of 7 career starts and enters off a gritty Preakness win, proving his toughness and versatility. He’s beaten nearly every key rival, has top-tier speed figures, and owns a strong stalking style that fits Saratoga well. His pedigree and proven wet-track form boost his appeal, and he’s trained well since the Preakness.

❌ Weaknesses: He faces a demanding turnaround, running his third Grade 1 in five weeks. That raises legitimate concerns about fatigue, especially against fresher rivals like Sovereignty and Baeza. Post 7 could leave him wide early, and jockey Rispoli lacks Saratoga experience. At 8-5 odds, any regression makes him vulnerable.

8. Heart of Honor (30-1)

✅ Strengths: Heart of Honor has strong stamina breeding and consistent overseas form, with multiple runner-up finishes at 1⅛ miles. He made up ground in the Preakness despite a poor start and could benefit if the pace gets hot. The Osborne father-daughter team knows him well, and at 30-1, he offers longshot appeal for deep exotics.

❌ Weaknesses: He’s outmatched on speed figures and was soundly beaten by the main contenders in the Preakness. Closers struggle at Saratoga going 1¼ miles, and his outside post adds risk. He’d need a big pace meltdown and a career-best effort just to hit the board.

🤖 How we generated our Belmont Stakes AI predictions

These Belmont Stakes AI predictions were generated using OpenAI’s most advanced large language model version of ChatGPT, which analyzes vast amounts of data to simulate realistic outcomes and identify betting value.

While not a traditional handicapping algorithm, the model draws from a wide range of publicly available information, including:

• Historical Belmont results, track trends, and distance-specific biases (especially at Saratoga, which hosts this year’s Belmont at 1¼ miles rather than the traditional 1½ at Belmont Park)
• Running styles and pace dynamics, including potential setups favoring early speed or deep closers
• Key prep race performances such as the Preakness, Wood Memorial, Peter Pan, and UAE Derby
• Speed figures from Equibase and Beyer, along with recent form cycles and career-best efforts
• Layoff patterns and recovery time between starts (especially relevant for horses coming off the Preakness or extended breaks)
• Jockey and trainer records in Triple Crown and Grade 1 races, including Saratoga-specific success
• Pedigree analysis for stamina, track surface, and distance suitability
• Post positions and tactical setups, including expected pace pressure and trip projections
• Track condition considerations, with an eye toward how horses may perform on a fast or wet Saratoga surface
• Betting odds, market sentiment, and historical trends for similar longshots and favorites in Triple Crown finales

By analyzing these inputs through pattern recognition and probabilistic modeling, the AI generates a projected finishing order and flags horses that may offer betting value - whether it's the favorite or an overlooked long shot.

📺 How to watch the 2025 Belmont Stakes

📅 Saturday, June 7
🕕 7:04 p.m. ET
📍 Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, N.Y.)
📺 FOX | 🛜 foxsports.com | 📲 Fox Sports App

🐴 Belmont Stakes expert picks 

• Belmont Stakes odds & post positions
• Belmont Stakes picks and predictions
• Belmont Stakes AI predictions

💵 Best Belmont Stakes betting sites

Want to bet on the Belmont Stakes? Here are the best horse racing betting sites and the best sportsbook promos for Saturday's race:

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