Free Belmont Stakes Picks & Predictions 2025: Journalism the Favorite for Today's Race

Will 8-5 favorite and Preakness Stakes winner Journalism run to his odds and prevail to win Saturday’s 157th Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course? Or will his erstwhile Triple Crown rival and Kentucky Derby champion Sovereignty run to his name and snatch the rubber match between these two stellar sophomores when the final leg of the 2025 Triple Crown begins at 7:04 p.m. ET?

We explore those questions with our free Belmont Stakes picks and predictions, along with an interloper who could bend this rubber match to his will and steal the storyline in the final jewel of thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown.

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💰 Belmont Stakes picks and predictions

⭐ Belmont Stakes favorite: Journalism (Post 7/8-5)

Trainer Michael McCarthy gets well-earned props for not only conditioning the best horse in the field but letting horse racing fans actually watch him run. Barring a late scratch, Journalism will be the only horse to run in all three Triple Crown races. And his scintillating victory in the Preakness three weeks ago - where he blasted through a pinhole opening, bounced off two horses and ran down Gosger in deep stretch - saved that race and its anemic field for posterity.

The son of 2007 Preakness champion Curlin, one of the most decorated sires this century, gets another shot at one of the three colts to beat him in seven races - Sovereignty. The Kentucky Derby was Journalism’s only loss as a 3-year-old and his first loss in five-plus months. Meanwhile, it snapped a four-race winning streak that included victories in three graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.

Journalism checks many of the boxes of a Belmont winner: he’s a graded stakes winner who is the progeny of a Grade 1 route race winner, he ran in the Derby (12 of the last 20 Belmont winners started at Churchill Downs), and he has a nice slice of history on his side. Since 1990, the Derby and Preakness winners have faced each other eight times in the Belmont, and the Preakness winner has beaten the Derby winner to the wire seven of those eight times while capturing three victories.

New York Racing Association morning-line author David Aragona made Journalism the 8-5 favorite despite knowing his two chief foes, Sovereignty and Derby third-place finisher Baeza, come in with two extra weeks of rest. If that gutsy Preakness didn’t tell you already, factoring that in from a respected linemaker like Aragona tells you what kind of special horse Journalism is.

🎯 Belmont Stakes long shot: Baeza (Post 6/4-1)

We are truly stretching the concept of “long shot” here. Baeza is the trendy colt in the Belmont field, one who will likely go off at shorter odds than his morning line. He’ll definitely go off at shorter odds than the 13.86-1 number he left the Churchill Downs starting gate at five weeks ago when he finished a neck behind runner-up Journalism.

We liked Baeza as a long shot then, and nothing has changed our minds in this field, even at truncated odds. Because of the value you’re going to get here vis-à-vis Journalism and Sovereignty, we're calling him a “long shot” because it’s almost inconceivable that the three best horses in this eight-horse field all lose the plot and fail to fire.

While you’re paying attention to Journalism vs. Sovereignty, you could be sleeping on not only the next-best horse in the field, but one who could legitimately win this Belmont Stakes. His stalking style kept him within three-quarters of a length of Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and left him a neck short in the Derby. Replicating his 102 Beyer Speed Figure from that race in this race should put him right in the mix.

We always pay attention to "Who’s Your Daddy" among Belmont runners, and his sire McKinzie is a four-time Grade 1 winner with more than $3.6 million in earnings. But Baeza came out of the Big Brown mare Puca. Why is "Who’s Your Mommy" important here? If Baeza prevails Saturday, he’ll be Puca’s third winner of a Triple Crown race in the last three years. She foaled last year’s Belmont Stakes winner in Dornoch and the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, Mage.

🥇 Our pick to win the Belmont Stakes: Journalism (Post 7/8-5)

Journalism has some flaws that need to be addressed first. He’s wheeling back on three weeks' rest, after running two weeks before that. Horse Racing Nation did a study on what the best path to the Belmont Stakes winner’s circle is and found that horses running all three legs of the Triple Crown endure a 9.4-point drop in their Beyer Speed Figure and win 12.1% of the time, compared to 13.4% for horses that go directly from the Derby to the Belmont.

Ten of the 12 starters who won the Belmont in the last 20 years ran the Derby and skipped the Preakness. Yes, there’s not going to be much value here when Journalism likely goes off at even money. And yes, the only two horses since 2005 to win the Belmont after winning the Preakness and own Triple Crowns: American Pharoah and Justify.

That out of the way, you’re looking at the best horse in the Belmont 157 field. Remember that Horse Racing Nation study from three paragraphs ago? It also showed that horses running all three legs of the Triple Crown average a 91.3 Beyer, compared to the 87.9 of your Sovereigntys and Baezas of the world who skipped the Preakness.

He checks off a Belmont Stakes winner, his 5-1-1 record in seven races, and his four graded-stakes victories. Go back and watch how Journalism won that Preakness. It is as illuminating as it is scintillating - a 3D living color piece of equine artistry showing a horse who is as hard to finish off as Rasputin.

Putting aside the Triple Crown horses, there have been two Preakness-Belmont winners this century: Point Given (2001) and Afleet Alex (2005). This Saturday, Journalism writes his way into that club.

📺 How to watch the Belmont Stakes

• When: Saturday, June 7
• Post time: 7:04 p.m. ET
• Where: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, N.Y.)
• How to watch: FOX

🧠 Belmont Stakes betting strategies

This is the second of three Belmont Stakes detours upstate to Saratoga, which reduces the distance from the traditional 1 ½ mile “Test of a Champion” to a 1 ¼-mile Test of Adaptation. And last year’s winner, Dornoch, fit the typical running style of a Belmont winner or a winner of a typical 10-furlong race at Saratoga. He was a pace-presser/stalker.

The blueprint for a Belmont Stakes winner is a pace-presser/stalker who can stay close to the leaders, because 14 of the 25 races were won by pressers/stalkers who were within four lengths of the lead at the first call. According to Equibase, 16 of the last 18 Belmont winners were within 4 1/2 lengths of the leader after the first half-mile. That includes Dornoch, who was a half-length back in second after the first half-mile of last year’s race. He was the eighth winner who was in a top-three position since 2005.

This benefits two of the best three horses in the field: Journalism and Baeza, both of whom are stalkers.

What about pace-setters? They may thrive at Churchill Downs and Pimlico, but not here. Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify, along with 38-1 freak-show Da’Tara, are the only three horses this century to wire the field. Consider that your cautionary tale, Rodriguez and Crudo fans.

And what about closers? Handicapper Noel Michaels broke down the 34 1 1/4-mile dirt races run at Saratoga since 2000. He found that closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace were 4 for 34–a woeful 11.8% success rate. The last closer to win the Belmont Stakes from more than 10 lengths back was Jazil, in 2006. This does not bode well for noted closer Sovereignty, nor fellow closers Hill Road or Heart of Honor.

Belmont Stakes trends and stats

• Derby Darlings: What’s the quickest ticket to the Belmont Stakes winner’s circle? Going through Churchill Downs. That’s because 12 of the last 20 Belmont winners (60%) ran in the Kentucky Derby. Of those 12, 10 bypassed the Preakness. 
• Stakes, Not Flakes: Game recognizes game here. Ten of the last 11 Belmont winners and 11 of the last 13 winners had a graded stakes victory on their CV. Take it further, and you find six of the seven horses who captured the Belmont for their first graded stakes victory had hit the board in an earlier graded stakes race.
• Who’s Your Daddy? Pedigree in thoroughbred racing always matters to a certain degree, but in few other races does this matter as much as it does in the Belmont Stakes. Look at the pedigrees of recent Belmont Stakes winners and you find 16 of the last 18 and 22 of the last 25 came from a sire who won a Grade 1 race of 1 1/8 miles or farther. 
• To Favor… Or Not to Favor: The average odds on a Belmont Stakes winner over the last 20 years is 10.38-1. There are two trends to take into account here. First, five of the last nine winners went off at 5-2 or less, which includes a four-time-in-five-year span between 2018 (Justify) and 2022 (Mo Donegal) where the favorite prevailed. Second, however, when you take out Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify, 17 of the last 21 favorites failed to run to their odds. Including 17-1 Dornoch last year, 11 of the last 25 Belmont Stakes winners went off at double-digit odds. A 12th (Tonalist) was 9-1. This encompasses the aforementioned Da’Tara in 2008, Sir Winston (10.20-1 in 2019), Creator (16.40-1 in 2016), Palace Malice (13.80-1 in 2013), Ruler On Ice (24.75-1 in 2011), and Drosselmeyer (13-1 in 2010).
• Time to Go Outside: When handicappers Michaels broke down the post-position success at Saratoga for 10-furlong races, he discovered that post position didn’t matter as much for stalkers and closers, only speed horses. In last year’s race, Dornoch won from Post 6 in a 10-horse field by stalking the pace. Every horse that hit the board in the superfecta (Dornoch, Mindframe, Sierra Leone, and Honor Marie) started from Post 6 and out.

🎟️ How to bet on horse racing

Some other general strategies to consider for your Belmont Stakes picks that apply in general when betting on horse racing include:

• Understanding the basics: Horse racing offers a variety of betting options, but the most common bet is to pick a horse to win, place, or show. A "win" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, a "place" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first or second, and a "show" bet means you're betting on a horse to finish first, second, or third. Additionally, you can bet on multiple horses in different combinations, such as exactas (picking the first and second-place horses in order) or trifectas (picking the first three horses in order).
• Handicapping the race: Before placing your bets, it's important to do some research and analyze the horses, jockeys, trainers, track conditions, and past performances. Look at factors such as recent form, speed figures, class level, and how well the horse has performed on similar track surfaces and distances. You can also consider factors like post position, workout times, and any changes in equipment or jockey.

Placing your bets: Once you've done your research and identified potential winners, it's time to place your bets. Head to the betting window or use a betting app to place your wagers. Be sure to specify the type of bet you're making (win, place, show, exacta, etc.), the horse's program number, and the amount you want to wager. Double-check your bet slip before confirming to ensure accuracy

🐴 Belmont Stakes expert picks 

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Where can I bet on the Belmont Stakes?

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💵 Best Belmont Stakes betting sites

Want to bet on the Belmont Stakes? Here are the best horse racing betting sites and the best sportsbook promos for Saturday's race:

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