WTA Tour Picks and Preview: BNP Paribas Open Tennis Tournament

The pros on the WTA Tour are on to the first major non-Grand Slam tournament of the season in Indian Wells, CA. With slower court speeds, clay court masters such as Iga Swiatek and Paula Badosa will come in with lofty expectations. We preview the tournament with our BNP Paribas Open picks.

There are a total of 1000 ranking points up for grabs for whoever conquers this pesky field in Indian Wells. Iga Swiatek enters as the favorite and will seek her second title of the season. Naomi Osaka is in search of some much-needed ranking points after falling to No. 78 in the world.

Just about all of the world’s greatest players have made the trek to Indian Wells for the first big draw after the Australian Open; however, we won’t see the top two players. Ash Barty is still resting after her win in Melbourne while Barbora Krejcikova pulled out due to injury.

Here are my outright picks for the WTA Tour’s BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, CA (odds via PointsBet).

BNP Paribas Open Masters Odds

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BNP Paribas Open Odds Analysis

With the Krejicova withdrawal, Swiatek and Osaka are among the top three favorites to win the tournament at +500 and +900, respectively. Anett Kontaveit, the fourth seed, is the second-likeliest player to win here after her strong start to the season. Aryna Sabalenka, the world No. 3, is next at +1200. Defending champion Paula Badosa is +1600.

BNP Paribas Open Picks

Paula Badosa (+1600)Maria Sakkari (+1400)Emma Raducanu (+3300)Amanda Anisimova (+3300)

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BNP Paribas Open Predictions

Badosa (+1600)

It’s hard not to love the defending champ here. Paula Badosa has been so dominant on slow surfaces over the last year to the tune of a 23-5 record on clay. She conquered these courts in an incredible showing at Indian Wells last year.

The 24-year-old toppled Cori Gauff, French Open champ Barbora Krejcikova, Angie Kerber, Ons Jabeur, and Victoria Azarenka in a three-set epic to capture the title and move into the top 10.

The Spaniard has only seemed to get better with every match she’s played since. It’s a near-certainty she’ll reach the quarters and (likely) match up with Kontaveit. Leylah Fernandez is unlikely to last due to fatigue and slower speeds, Amanda Anisimova lacks the experience in these types of large tournaments and Kontaveit shouldn’t be quite as lethal on slow courts.

Badosa is definitely my pick to come out of her quarter given her mastery of slow surfaces.

Sakkari (+1400)

Maria Sakkari hasn’t exactly been great at Indian Wells in the last two seasons, but she loves to have time to hit the ball and thrives as an underdog. As long as she can make it out of the second round, she should — in her mind, anyway — be playing without any sort of pressure against some world-class talents and could even be an underdog to Jabeur depending on how she plays.

Watching the Tie Break Tens event on Tuesday night, it was clear Sakkari has a great feel for this surface and she looked incredible, generally speaking. When dialed in, she is one of the very best players in the world, and she is someone who could actually benefit from a tough draw, getting the very best tennis out of herself early on and building some momentum for when matches hypothetically get easier over opponents she’s taken out before.

Raducanu (+3300)

If there were ever a time to buy low on Emma Raducanu, it’d be here. In the immediate aftermath of her US Open win, she was an incredibly expensive player to back, but after a 1-3 start to the season and a withdrawal due to injury in Guadalajara, the World No. 13 is buried in the odds to win in Indian Wells.

Raducanu has never played on a clay court, which hinders our ability to handicap her ability to play here, but we do know she’s been fantastic at finding angles and sustaining long rallies. She hypothetically has a great path to the quarterfinals with either Dayana Yastremska or Caroline Garcia followed by some weaker clay court opponents, and should she get there she should have the confidence required to power up her game, which is right up there with the very best in the world.

This is probably the best price we’ll get on Raducanu in some time, and I feel the need to pull the trigger.

Anisimova (+3300)

Amanda Anisimova was building confidence heading into the third round of Indian Wells last year after some quick and easy wins, but she ran into a buzzsaw when she dropped her third-round match against Barbora Krejcikova in straight sets. The supremely talented 20-year-old is playing the best tennis of her young career, winning her second career title in Melbourne and making the Round of 16 at the Australian Open after a monumental win over Naomi Osaka, and she’s coming into the BNP Paribas Open with a ton of confidence.

While rather inconsequential, she was able to win the Tie Break Tens exhibition event on Tuesday night and looked to be in complete command on these surfaces against some of the world’s very best.

I love the way she has played all year long and I have to take her at these long odds in what I see as the weakest half of the draw.

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