Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Today's Wimbledon Semifinal 2025 Expert Picks
It's not quite Roger Federer and Bjorn Borg's record of 41 consecutive matches unbeaten at Wimbledon, but as we make our Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz prediction for today's Wimbledon semifinal, there's a milestone in reach.
Carlos Alcaraz is eyeing up number 20 when he faces Taylor Fritz, and while the American's form on grass is impressive, Alcaraz is a seemingly unstoppable force.
Alcaraz, the Wimbledon odds front-runner, is also the giant favorite across our best sports betting sites to advance to his third straight final at the All England Club. His -550 moneyline odds represent an implied win probability of 84.62% against Fritz (+400). Play is set to start around 8:30 a.m. ET, and you can follow it up with today's second semifinal, which we cover in our Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic prediction.
🎾 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz prediction & best bet today: Wimbledon Semifinal
🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best Wimbledon odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!
✅ Pick to win: Carlos Alcaraz 3-1 (+240 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Carlos Alcaraz Over 20.5 games (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Read on for the latest odds and full analysis of our best bets ⤵️
📊 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz odds today: Wimbledon 2025
Latest Wimbledon odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.
| Player | Odds to win | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | -550 | 84.62% |
| Taylor Fritz | +400 | 20% |
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🏆 Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz expert pick to win
✅ Carlos Alcaraz 3-1 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: +240 via Caesars ($10 to win $24)
🔢 Implied probability: 29.41%
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Against anyone else, Fritz would have a solid chance of advancing to his first Wimbledon final. The American won at Eastbourne and at the Boss Open before entering play at Wimbledon.
While he survived two five-set scares, the no. 5 seed has shown his outstanding quality, especially with one of the tour's best serves on the surface.
We picked him as our favorite Wimbledon sleeper and long-shot pick, and he hasn't disappointed.
However, his opponent may eventually become the best player ever to grace the All England Club. And that's saying a lot considering the Wimbledon exploits of legends like Federer, Rafael Nadal, Bjorg, and Novak Djokovic.
Alcaraz received a five-set wake-up call in the first round and reacted accordingly. While he hasn't been at his immaculate best throughout, I can't see Fritz upending a player who hasn't lost at the All England Club in 19 matches.
Due to Fritz playing at the peak of his grass-court powers, I'm giving him the benefit of winning a set, but expecting more than that is ambitious, if not unrealistic.
💰 Best Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz prop bet
✅ Carlos Alcaraz Over 20.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -110 via FanDuel ($10 to win $9.09)
🔢 Implied probability: 52.38%
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Alcaraz has shown a few vulnerabilities, with three of his five matches requiring at least four sets.
Fritz is 8-1 on grass this season and avoided a straight-sets defeat in his final loss to Corentin Moutet at the Queen's Club Championships.
I am concerned about his blisters and overall fatigue level, though, which was an issue at times against Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinal.
He should have enough to win a set, but that will be the extent of his success against the seemingly indefatigable Alcaraz. FanDuel's -110 odds offer the best value, while DraftKings' -125 odds provide the least value.
📺 How to watch Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz today: Wimbledon 2025
📍 Date: Friday, July 11
🕘 Time: 8:30 a.m. ET (or later)
🏟️ Location: All England Club (London)
📡 How to watch: ESPN, ESPN+
💵 Best tennis betting sites
Want to bet on Wimbledon 2025? Check out the best sportsbook promos for this season's summer major:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
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