Chinese Grand Prix Predictions & Odds: Expert F1 Picks, Chinese GP Odds After Piastri Takes Pole
Oscar Piastri took pole position for the first time, and the 23-year-old is the new Chinese Grand Prix odds favorite entering Sunday's race at the Shanghai International Circuit (3 a.m. ET, ESPN).
His teammate, F1 Championship odds favorite Lando Norris, finished qualifying in third but has the second-shortest odds. Meanwhile, Lewis Hamilton won Saturday's sprint but finished fifth in qualifying.
Will Norris win his second consecutive race to start the season? We dive into things in our Chinese Grand Prix odds and predictions, analyzing the best picks for the season's second race. You can also check out our Chinese Grand Prix best bets.
🥇2025 Chinese Grand Prix odds & favorites🥇
Chinese Grand Prix odds via FanDuel as of Saturday at 6 a.m. ET.
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oscar Piastri | -110 | 52.38% | $9.09 |
| Lando Norris | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| George Russell | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Max Verstappen | +950 | 16.67% | $95 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Charles Leclerc | +3600 | 2.70% | $360 |
| Isack Hadjar | +16000 | 0.62% | $1,600 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +16000 | 0.62% | $1,600 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +16000 | 0.62% | $1,600 |
| Alex Albon | +32000 | 0.31% | $3,200 |
| Carlos Sainz | +42000 | 0.24% | $4,200 |
| Fernando Alonso | +42000 | 0.24% | $4,200 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Oliver Bearman | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Jack Doohan | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
Chinese Grand Prix weather update
The forecast looks good for Sunday, with only a 30% chance of precipitation. It won't rain much if the clouds do open up.
Chinese Grand Prix odds movement
Updates as of 6 a.m. ET on Saturday morning
🏎️ Piastri is the new favorite after winning qualifying and taking pole. His odds moved from +350 to -110
🏎️ Norris' odds lengthened from -130 to +200 after finishing third in qualifying
🏎️ George Russell's odds shortened from +1800 to +700 after finishing second in qualifying
🏎️ Verstappen's odds dropped from +500 to +950 after finishing fourth in qualifying
🏎️ Hamilton's odds shortened after winning the sprint but then lengthened to +1600 after finishing fifth in qualifying
🏎️ Leclerc's odds lengthened from +1300 to +3600 after finishing sixth in qualifying
Chinese Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets to win
Editor's note: Below picks were made on Monday. Please refer to the updated odds in the table above... (-110 for Piastri to win as of Saturday at 6 a.m. ET)
🏆 Pick to win Chinese Grand Prix: Oscar Piastri (+340) ⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +350 via bet365 | Implied probability: 22.22%
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McLaren is flying, which was evident in Melbourne and during pre-season testing in Bahrain. Norris has effectively won two races in a row after prevailing in Abu Dhabi for last season's final race. George Russell enjoyed a superb race in Australia, but Mercedes doesn't quite have the speed to remain with McLaren's breakneck pace.
While Max Verstappen deserves plaudits for making Norris sweat in the Melbourne rain, the downpour benefitted the four-time defending champion. Had it not been for the inclement conditions, Verstappen probably would have finished further down the grid.
Piastri was fast and in control for most of the race until he made a costly error, taking him into the gravel at Turn 12. He'll be hellbent on making up for that mistake. He was too aggressive in the wet conditions, something he'll learn from.
I expect one of the McLaren drivers to remain atop the perch after the Chinese Grand Prix. And while Norris is the obvious and safest choice, I'm backing Piastri due to his +340 odds. I believe he has a better chance than his 22.73% probability implies. FanDuel offers the most competitive price of our best sports betting apps.
💎 Best value bet to win Chinese Grand Prix: George Russell (+2000) ⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +2000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 4.76%
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There was nothing to dislike about Russell's opening race of the season. He said after the race that Mercedes is a step ahead of Ferrari at this embryonic stage, and I couldn't agree more. I backed Russell as my long shot for the Australian Grand Prix, and I'm going back to him as my best value bet for Shanghai.
Mercedes' car appears to be the second quickest behind McLaren, and Russell should thrive as the undisputed lead driver after Lewis Hamilton's depa. Russell had four podium finishes and two race wins last season, and he looks poised to easily best that this season.
🎯 Best long shot to win Chinese Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton (+2200) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +2200 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 6.67%
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This pick was between Hamilton and Kimi Antonelli (+3200). Antonelli was outstanding in his first race for Mercedes, finishing fourth, and I expect another strong showing from the 18-year-old. But I've decided to go with Hamilton's experience and winning pedigree despite a disappointing 10th place in his first race with Ferrari.
Hamilton has the most pole positions (6) and wins (6) at the Chinese Grand Prix. That counts for something. And he'll be highly motivated to make up for an underwhelming debut.
💰 Best Chinese Grand Prix prop bet: Lando Norris fastest lap (+137) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +137 via bet365 | Implied probability: 42.19%
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Hamilton has the most podiums (6) and wins (6) at the Chinese Grand Prix. That counts for something. And he'll be highly motivated to make up for an underwhelming debut.
Norris took the race win and fastest lap honors Down Under, and he's feeling pretty good about himself. His lightning-quick car accentuates his Drivers' Championship-caliber skill set. Norris had the most fastest laps last season, with six. He has an excellent chance of surpassing that number this season, especially in the early goings as other teams do their utmost to bridge the pace gap.
🏆 Past Chinese Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the last 10 Chinese Grand Prix winners.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Canceled | Covid-19 |
| 2022 | Canceled | Covid-19 |
| 2021 | Canceled | Covid-19 |
| 2020 | Canceled | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (then Mercedes) |
| 2018 | 🇦🇺 Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2017 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari |
| 2016 | 🇩🇪 Nico Rosberg | Ferrari (then Mercedes) |
| 2015 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (then Mercedes) |
| 2014 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (then Mercedes) |
📈 Chinese Grand Prix trends & history
🏎️ Lewis Hamilton has the most pole positions (6) at the Chinese Grand Prix
🏎️ Hamilton has the most wins at the Chinese Grand Prix (6)
🏎️ The circuit is designed to look like the Chinese symbol for ‘shang’, meaning upwards
🏎️ The circuit features one of the longest straights on the calendar, the 1.2km stretch that separates turns 13-14
🏎️ Michael Schumacher's last win, his 91st, came at the Chinese Grand Prix in 2006
📺 How to watch the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix
📅 Race date: Sunday, March 23
🕒 Start time: 3 a.m. ET
📍 Track: Shanghai International Circuit (Shanghai, China)
📺 TV: ESPN | Streaming: ESPN+
☀️ 81 degrees, 11 mph to 15 mph winds, 30% chance of precipitation
❓ Chinese Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Chinese Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri is the favorite to win the Chinese Grand Prix, with moneyline odds of +100 at BetMGM.
What are the odds for the Chinese Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri (+100), Lando Norris (+225), Max Verstappen (+600), and George Russell (+600) are favorites at FanDuel.
What time is the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix?
The Chinese Grand Prix starts at 3 a.m. ET on Sunday, March 23.
How to watch the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix
You can watch the Chinese Grand Prix on ESPN or ESPN+.
Who has won the most Chinese Grand Prix races?
Lewis Hamilton has won the most Chinese Grand Prixs (6).
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