2022 Corales Puntacana Championship Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips: Wide-Open Field in the DR

Corales Golf Club in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic hosts an opposite-field for the PGA Tour’s Corales Puntacana Championship this week, and we break it down with our expert outright, matchup, and prop picks.

This week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play is the main event on the PGA Tour but another winner will be crowned at the Corales Puntacana Championship in the Dominican Republic. A purse of $3.7 million and 300 FedEx Cup points are up for grabs. Joel Dahmen is the betting favorite as he looks to defend his 2021 title.

Corales Golf Course plays to a par of 72 and measures 7,670 yards. Since first hosting the PGA Tour in 2018, Dahmen’s winning scoring of -12 was the worst 72-hole mark. Each of the previous three winners did so at 18-under par.

Below, our PGA Tour experts offer up their picks and best bets for the Corales Puntacana Championship at Corales Golf Club in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic.

Corales Puntacana Championship Expert Picks

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Corales Puntacana Championship Picks to Win

Sahith Theegala (+2500 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sahith Theegala started his 2022 calendar with six straight made cuts, including a T-3 finish against a loaded field at the WM Phoenix Open. He slipped backward with missed cuts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship, but a T-7 result last week at the Valspar Championship vaulted him back to No. 127 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

Theegala averaged 2.46 strokes gained: tee-to-green and 1.09 SG: around-the-green per round last week. His putting hindered his overall performance, but he was able to get the flat stick going while shooting 4-under par on Sunday. For the 2021-22 PGA Tour season, he is averaging 0.22 SG: approach and 0.57 SG: tee-to-green per round. He makes his first appearance at Corales Golf Club this week, but this weak field should open the door after proving he can contend against the PGA Tour’s best.

Each of our other top sportsbooks is offering odds of +2200 on Theegala to win this week. Take the added value provided by the +2500 number at DraftKings. - McLaren

Hudson Swafford (+6500 via DraftKings)

Three times a winner on the PGA Tour, Hudson Swafford won The American Express for the second time in January. He has struggled since that triumph, having missed four of his last five cuts.

Despite being out of form, we are drawn to Swafford as he has won the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship in the past. It is not like he was in excellent form prior to winning the American Express, either.

Considering his past history, I believe that he is a player who prefers certain golf courses on the PGA Tour, of which Corales Golf Club is one. Swafford has played 10 rounds at this venue and is averaging 1.36 SG: total. In the current field, this is the third-best mark. 

In an opposite-field event, +6500 seems like a long price for a player who has already won on the PGA Tour this season and won this event in 2020. The highest odds for him are at DraftKings, where he is listed at +6500. He is +5000 at PointsBet. - Metler

Aaron Rai (+4000 odds via PointsBet)

Aaron Rai may not be a household name just yet, but the two-time European Tour winner has been on quite the roll recently - making the cut in nine of his past 11 PGA starts. 

Rai was solid in the fall and finished in the top-20 in three straight events. He more recently tied for sixth against a strong field at the Farmers Insurance Open. 

He's not the longest hitter, as he ranks 147th on Tour, but he is excellent on approach, and ranks 44th in strokes gained on Tour. 

It tends to get windy in the Dominican Republic, conditions Rai is used to as a native of the United Kingdom and from his time on the European Tour. He has been trending up and is worth a flier in this watered-down field. - Anderson

Corales Puntacana Championship Longshot Picks

Wesley Bryan (+20000 via BetMGM)

A T-62 finish at last week’s Valspar Championship saw Wesley Bryan come up just shy of the T-51 he needed to maintain PGA Tour status. He was granted entry to this week’s opposite field in the Dominican Republic based on his 2017 RBC Heritage victory.

Bryan won’t need to worry much about his wayward driver with the friendly fairways of Corales Golf Club. The wide-open entry points off the tee will allow him to rely on his significantly better iron play. Through 13 rounds this season, he’s averaging 0.44 SG: approach per round and also gaining strokes with his putter.

The trick-shot artist-turned PGA Tour winner will still have plenty of motivation if able to shake off the heartbreak of last week. The considerably weaker field could provide the opening he needs after making just his second cut of the year last week in Texas. - McLaren

Curtis Thompson (+10000 via PointsBet)

During the early part of the 2021-22 PGA Tour season, Curtis Thompson missed seven of his first eight cuts. He has, however, begun to show signs of improvement, where he has now made five consecutive cuts. Last week, Thompson finished T-39 at The Valspar Championship.

Generally, Corales Golf Club favors a specific skill set in a golfer and that is driving distance. It is for this reason that you see Jhonattan Vegas as one of the favorites to win this week's tournament. I chose Thompson as my longshot pick because of this specific skill set. His greatest asset is his driving distance, and this season he is gaining strokes off the tee.

On Sunday, he may be in contention if he brings the hot putter he had at the Valspar Championship, where he averaged 1.43 SG: putting per round. At PointsBet, he is listed at +10000, which is his highest price. - Metler

Callum Tarren (+7500 via PointsBet)

Though not imperative, it helps to be long off the tee at this event. Callum Tarren is just that, ranking 26th on Tour in average driving distance, with 308.0 yards per drive. 

Tarren's putting is poor, as he ranks outside the top-200 on tour in strokes gained, but he comes into the event in solid form. He recently tied for fifth at the Puerto Rico Open and for 30th at the more difficult Honda Classic. 

His approach game is average, but if he relies on his driving prowess, Callum will be in the mix. - Anderson

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Corales Puntacana Championship Top Matchup Picks

Kramer Hickok (+100) vs. Adam Svensson (via DraftKings)

Adam Svensson is favored in this matchup while entering the tournament at No. 168 in the OWGR; however, Kramer Hickok enters at No. 139 in the world rankings. Additionally, it was Hickok who had the better finish at the Valspar Championship, with a T-33 showing to Svensson’s T-39.

Hickok relied heavily on his putter last week, but that has been a pretty consistent strength for him this season. His iron and driver play has also been consistently better this season than it was last week. Svensson is losing strokes per round off the tee, around the green, and on the greens over 32 measured rounds this season.

Svensson has top-10 finishes this year at the Sony Open and The Honda Classic, but Hickok has a sizable course history advantage at Corales Golf Club. Svensson missed the cut in his lone appearance in this event in 2019, but Hickok averaged 0.92 total strokes gained on the field per round in finishes of T-10 and T-21 in 2019 and 2020, respectively. - McLaren

Jhonattan Vegas (+105) vs. Joel Dahmen (via DraftKings)

In this particular matchup, Dahmen is a -130 favorite over Vegas as the defending champion of the event. The course history definitely favors Dahmen, who has averaged 1.49 strokes gained per round at Corales Golf Club compared to 0.12 for Vegas.

Despite Dahmen having a stronger course history, it is Vegas that presents a better profile at this golf course. Corales Golf Club is designed to suit players who like to bomb it off the tee, and that is exactly the type of golfer that Vegas is. Currently, Vegas is fifth on the PGA Tour, with an average driving distance of 317.0 yards.

Although DraftKings has Dahmen as a -130 favorite in this matchup, PointsBet actually has Vegas favored over Dahmen to win the tournament. I am more in favor of PointsBet's price point than DraftKings' in this scenario. This has me leaning towards Vegas in this matchup, especially at the price point of +105. - Metler

Joel Dahmen (-115) vs. Jhonattan Vegas ( via DraftKings)

This is a coinflip bet but I’ll take Dahmen over the inconsistent Vegas. 

Dahmen won this event last year and has never finished worse than T-13 in this event. He recently finished T-6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and T-33 at The Players Championship. 

Vegas shows flashes but his inconsistent play typically leaves him out of the mix come Sunday. He’s tremendous in the first round, but slowly falls apart as the tournament continues. 

I’ll take Dahmen’s course history and recent form in this spot. - Anderson

Corales Puntacana Championship Top Prop Picks

Top European: Nicolai Hojgaard (+800 via PointsBet)

Nicolai Hojgaard comes into his first appearance at the Corales Puntacana Championship as the top-ranked player in the field at No. 77 in the OWGR. He rose to a career-best 67th in the world with his win at the DP World Tour’s Ras al Khaimah Championship earlier this year but has missed three straight cuts since, including two on the PGA Tour.

However, this will be the weakest PGA Tour field he has competed against in his career. His 0.69 SG: off-the-tee and 0.32 SG: approach per round are well-suited to this venue. We can trust in his overall talent in this weak field as a value while third by the odds in this 16-man pool. - McLaren

Top 10: Wyndham Clark (+500 via DraftKings)

To continue along with the theme, I am backing players this week at the Corales Puntacana Championship who are able to hit the ball far off the tee. Wyndham Clark has never won a PGA Tour event, but he has come close, losing to Brian Gay in the Bermuda Championship in 2020. I am backing Clark as a top-10 play rather than an outright wager due to his track record of being close but never winning.

Clark is an absolute bomber off the tee, and this should work in his favor this week at Corales Golf Club. Clark ranks ninth on the PGA Tour with an average driving distance of 314.8 yards. The consensus price for Clark to finish in the top 10 is +500. You can find this number at either DraftKings or PointsBet. - Metler

Top 10: Peter Uihlein (+450 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Peter Uihlein finished second last week in a playoff on the Korn Ferry Tour and has two previous top-25 finishes at this event. 

He ranks 45th on Tour in driving distance. Coming in with some momentum coupled with his course history has me very interested in this price. - Anderson

Picks to Fade

Alex Smalley

Though we’ve all discussed how weak this field is, there’s no reason for Alex Smalley to be priced among the favorites. He shares the third-best odds to win at DraftKings after finishes of T-14 and T-22 in this event in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Since a T-15 finish at the Houston Open in the fall, he has missed four cuts and hasn’t finished better than T-25 in nine events on the PGA Tour.

Smalley, 25, hasn’t won on any professional tour and enters this week ranked just 301st in the OWGR. Though he’s had moderate success in a small sample at this event, we just haven’t seen enough of it anywhere else to be trusting the 3.85% win probability implied by his +2500 odds at DraftKings. - McLaren

Matthias Schwab

I am fading Matthias Schwab at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Due to his overall performance this season, he is considered one of the shorter bets to win the event at +3000. While Schwab has averaged 0.24 SG: total on the season, it is his course history that has me fading him this week.

In 2020, he finished T-56 at this event while losing 0.73 strokes per round. A difference between Schwab and some of the other players in the field is the fact that he doesn't bomb it off the tee. He does not fit the profile of someone I am looking to back this week at that low price of +3000. - Metler

Jhonattan Vegas

Although Vegas owns some win equity with three victories on Tour, I just cannot get to him as an outright at this price. 

I understand it’s a watered-down field, but his play recently doesn’t inspire much confidence. However, I will play him in the first-round leader market, as he ranks seventh on tour in Round 1 scoring average but he largely fades down the stretch. - Anderson

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