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Daytona 500 Expert Picks: Picks to Win, Long Shots, Race Props & AI Predictions

Esten McLaren

Last Updated: February 16, 2025 9:55 AM EST • 5 min 28 sec read.

We make our Daytona 500 expert picks for the 2025 race at Daytona International Speedway.
Pictured: The sun sets over Daytona International Speedway. Photo by Nigel Cook / News-Journal via Imagn Images.

The Great American Race begins today at 1:30 p.m. ET at Daytona International Speedway with coverage on FOX, and our Daytona 500 expert picks look for winners, long shots, race props, and even AI predictions.

Kyle Busch (+900) is the betting favorite to win the 2025 Daytona 500. A winning $10 bet at the +900 Daytona 500 odds would return a profit of $90 with an implied win probability of 10%, according to our odds converter.

Daytona 500 expert picks

Our Daytona 500 picks are based on the best and latest betting odds for the 1:30 p.m. ET race. 

  • Pick to win: Joey Logano (+1400 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Long-shot pick: Erik Jones (+4500 via FanDuel)
  • AI pick: Denny Hamlin will finish in the top three (+400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Daytona 500 prop bet: Winning manufacturer - Ford (+160 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Best Kyle Busch pick: Kyle Busch (-115 via Caesars) vs. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Who'll win the Daytona 500?

Joey Logano (+1400 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Let's be real: this race is going to come down to who gets the best restart in the final few laps after an inevitable late caution. And I trust Logano, a three-time champion and former Daytona 500 winner, to navigate the pack as well as anyone.

Logano was my pick in my Daytona Duels predictions, and he was running near the front of the pack for nearly all 60 laps before slipping to fifth around the final turn. He'll start 10th on Sunday, and his Team Penske teammates - Austin Cindric (second) and Ryan Blaney (16th) - should prove valuable as drafting partners on Sunday.

That should be enough for Logano, who won this race from the fifth spot back in 2015 and has since finished in the top six in five of his nine tries while wrecking out in three of the other four races. That's the risk betting on an aggressive driver at Daytona, but it's also the reward when he reaches Victory Lane, something most have never done here.

Call me crazy, but I think the reigning Cup Series champion still has something to prove after three months of hearing how he was an illegitimate victor last year - a preposterous claim, by the way, for someone who already had two trophies on his mantle before his gutsy run through last year's postseason. I expect him to be gunning for a win on Sunday.

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Daytona 500 predictions made by C Jackson Cowart.

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Daytona 500 long-shot pick

Erik Jones (+4500 via FanDuel)

We highlighted Jones as our best long shot in our Daytona 500 predictions, and for good reason. He nearly won the second Daytona Duel on Thursday and finished third in the Daytona 500 in 2019 and eighth last year.

Jones will start fourth in today's race after a blistering run in Wednesday's qualifying session. It's his best start ever at Daytona. His previous best spot came in 2018, when he started eighth and led 11 laps before a wreck ended his day. If he wins this time around, a $10 bet would return a $450 profit at FanDuel.

Bet $5 on Erik Jones to win the Daytona 500 and receive $150 in bonus bets with our FanDuel promo code.

Daytona 500 long shots chosen by C Jackson Cowart.

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Daytona 500 AI pick

Denny Hamlin will finish in the top three (+400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Proven superspeedway performance: Hamlin has repeatedly shown that he can navigate the chaotic conditions of Daytona, where strategic drafting and positioning are critical. His experience in similar races supports his ability to secure a top-3 finish.

✅ Strong starting position & team strength: Starting eighth, Hamlin benefits from a good track position, and racing with Joe Gibbs Racing means he has the backing of a crew that’s adept at making crucial mid-race adjustments and pit decisions.

✅ Consistency in restrictor plate racing: Over his career, Hamlin has been known to perform well under the unique pressures of restrictor plate racing, making him a reliable pick to be among the leaders in the final stages of the race.

Daytona 500 AI picks made by ChatGPT.

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Daytona 500 prop bet

Winning manufacturer: Ford (+160)

I back the Blue Ovals to win at every superspeedway. Why? Well, going back to 2022 - the start of the NextGen Era - Fords have led just over half of all laps on these tracks. If we take out 2022 and look at just the last two years, that number jumps to 64.5%.

A driver in a Ford has led the most laps in the last three Daytona 500s. As a manufacturer, Ford has led the majority of the last three Daytona 500s as well. While late-race chaos often tends to throw a wrench into things, if this race is run clean, Ford gets a better shot to win this race than the odds suggest.

Daytona 500 prop bets made by Isaiah Sirois.

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Best Kyle Busch prop bet

Kyle Busch (-115) vs. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Here's what Sirois had to say about Busch's matchup prop with Larson via Caesars:

"Although Kyle Larson is an incredibly talented driver, superspeedway racing just hasn’t been his thing. Larson has logged zero wins over 21 starts at Daytona, zero top-five finishes, and just five top-10 results with an average finish of 22. A similar pattern holds for Talladega, where he's registered an average finish of 21.9 over 20 starts.

Kyle Busch presents a different story. Superspeedways have been in his wheelhouse for a long time. Busch has recorded a win, nine top-five finishes, 13 top-10 outcomes, and an average result of 18.1 across 39 starts. He's also posted an average finish of 20.2 (and two wins) at Talladega over 39 starts."

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Kyle Busch Daytona 500 picks made by C Jackson Cowart.

💰 Daytona 500 odds & expert picks

📺 How to watch the 2025 Daytona 500

📅 Race date: Sunday, Feb. 16, 2025
🕒 Start time: 1:30 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Daytona International Speedway (Daytona Beach, Fla.)
📺 TV: FOX | Streaming: FOX Sports App, FuboTV, YouTube TV  

🏁 Best NASCAR betting sites for Daytona 500

Looking to bet on Daytona 500 long shots? Here are our top-rated NASCAR best sports betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of Sunday's race at 1:30 p.m. ET.

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Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Written By:
Esten McLaren
Esten is the Senior Publishing Editor for SportsbookReview.com. He has been in the sports betting industry since the legalization of mobile sports betting in New Jersey, and with SportsbookReview prior to the launch of sports betting in Ontario. Esten's previous stops include the USA TODAY network, including GolfWeek. He previously worked in the fantasy sports industry, with FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and USA TODAY. Esten graduated from the College of Sports Media with a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting after acquiring a degree in Biological Sciences from the University of Guelph. He has appeared on FNTSY Sports Network, VSiN, and VSiN's Long Shots podcast, where he correctly called Will Zalatoris as the winner of the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Esten is a big proponent of the entertainment side of sports betting and loves to dip his toes into the novelty and alt-markets while chasing long shots with reduced wagers on golf outrights and futures markets. He's also been known to sprinkle some lunch money on touchdown-scorer parlays with two notable hits still funding his bankroll. Esten looks at sports betting much like golf and advises beginner bettors to compete against themselves rather than being concerned with what others may or may not be doing based on social media claims.