Brazilian Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Predictions 2024: Norris To Make Most of Verstappen Penalty
It's getting spicy during the F1 season as the drivers prepare for Sunday's Brazilian Grand Prix at the Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in Sao Paulo, Brazil (1 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
Saturday's qualifying has been delayed until Sunday due to heavy rain in Sao Paolo.
Max Verstappen, who hasn't won in the last 10 races, faces a five-second penalty after exceeding the four-engine quota. The Dutchman was also dealt a 10-place grid penalty for exceeding his seasonal engine quota at July’s Belgian Grand Prix.
Lando Norris finished first in Friday's practice session and followed that with a sprint victory Saturday morning. The Englishman, who was the favorite prior to Friday's practice session, saw his odds shorten at our F1 betting sites.
He'll look to pour more salt Verstappen's gaping wound. The Dutchman finished the sprint in fourth place.
Our Brazilian Grand Prix odds, picks, and predictions back Norris to win the race and heap pressure on Verstappen going into the final three events of the season.
Brazilian Grand Prix picks
F1 picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best F1 betting sites.
- Favorite: Lando Norris (-150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Long shot: Max Verstappen (+1000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Prop: Lando Norris fastest lap (+170 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Brazilian Grand Prix odds 2024
Odds as of Saturday at 2 p.m. ET.
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | -175 | -160 | -153 | -187 | -150 |
| Oscar Piastri | +425 | +550 | +450 | +550 | +450 |
| Charles Leclerc | +850 | +700 | +650 | +700 | +650 |
| Max Verstappen | +850 | +950 | +1000 | +900 | +1000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1200 | +1100 | +1000 | +1400 | +1000 |
| George Russell | +2500 | +2200 | +1600 | +2500 | +2000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +2800 | +2900 | +2200 | +3300 | +2500 |
| Sergio Perez | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
Brazilian Grand Prix predictions
Favorite: Lando Norris ⭐⭐⭐
Norris is making life uncomfortable for Verstappen, and there's certainly no love lost between arguably the world's best F1 drivers. Norris finished second at the Mexico Grand Prix after being unable to make up the necessary ground on Carlos Sainz Jr. He hasn't won a race since the fall break, finishing fourth and second.
However, Norris has been the best driver on the circuit since late August, winning two of six races. While Charles Leclerc would dispute that assertion, he wouldn't argue the fact that Norris is one of the primary contenders each time out.
Norris won the first practice session and followed that with a sprint victory. While the sprint win was more due to McLaren allowing Norris to pass teammate Oscar Piastri, Norris and his car have looked formidable since the weekend festivities got underway.
I liked Norris before Friday's practice session when he was trading at +160, and despite the longer odds, I'm not turning my back on him now. A winning $10 bet profits $6.67. It's only a three-star bet due to the lower potential profit margin.
Best odds: -150 via bet365 | Implied probability: 60%
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Long shot: Max Verstappen ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I can't remember when Verstappen was last considered a long shot, so I'm jumping on the opportunity. If there's anyone who can overcome a five-second penalty, it's Verstappen.
He hasn't won a race since the Spanish Grand Prix on June 23, so wouldn't it be fitting for the defending Brazilian Grand Prix champion to defy the odds, overcome the penalty, and take the checkered flag?
His odds were trading as long as +1200 before Saturday's sprint. His fourth-place sprint finish shortened his odds at our best sports betting sites. BetMGM offers the best value at +1000.
A winning $10 bet would profit $100.
Best odds: +1000 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 9.09%
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Prop: Lando Norris fastest lap ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While Norris has been one of the fastest on the circuit all season, he's been even quicker in the past few months. Norris, three races removed from winning three successive fastest laps, had the third-fastest lap in Mexico City last time out and the second-fastest in Singapore on Sept. 22.
He's been knocking on the fastest lap door since Azerbaijan in mid-September, and I like his chances of breaking through in Sao Paolo. A winning $10 bet will yield a $17 profit.
Best odds: +170 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 37.04%
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Brazilian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | George Russell | Mercedes |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2020 | No race | No race |
| 2019 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2014 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
Brazilian Grand Prix info
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 3
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: The Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
- How to watch: ESPN2, ESPN+
- Defending winner: Max Verstappen
- Favorite: Norris (+160 via BetMGM)
Brazilian Grand Prix picks made Friday at 2 p.m. ET
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