2025 Japanese Grand Prix Best Bets, Predictions: Expert F1 Prop Bets, Picks to Win & Odds
Making a long-awaited statement, three-time defending Japanese Grand Prix winner Max Verstappen won qualifying and took pole position for Sunday's race at Suzuka Circuit (1 a.m. ET, ESPN).
Will the Dutchman make it four in a row in Japan and secure his first race victory of the season, or can McLaren - with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri finishing second and third in qualifying - make it three successive triumphs?
Our Japanese Grand Prix predictions analyze the best bets as we look to extend our unblemished record from the season's first two races.
📊 2025 Japanese Grand Prix odds & favorites at Suzuka Circuit
Here are the latest Japanese Grand Prix odds and favorites at BetMGM as of Saturday at 7 a.m. ET. Take a look at the odds for the entire field, which we provide in our Japanese Grand Prix predictions and odds.
🥇 Japanese Grand Prix betting favorites 🥇
Odds via BetMGM
- Lando Norris, +125 ($10 to win $12.50)
- Max Verstappen, +175 (+10 to win $17.50)
- Oscar Piastri, +350 ($10 to win $35)
- George Russell, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
- Charles Leclerc, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
- Lewis Hamilton, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
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🏁 Japanese Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets at Suzuka Circuit
🏆 Pick to win Japanese Grand Prix: Lando Norris (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The F1 Championship odds favorite was edged out in qualifying by Verstappen, which could prove decisive. Verstappen took pole in last year's race before winning his third straight in Japan. BetMGM's implied probability for the Dutchman to accomplish the feat again is currently at 36.36%. While backing the three-time winner is a sound choice, I'm jumping on the MCL39 bandwagon for the third straight race.
Of the 34 races in Japan, 18, or 53%, were won by the driver starting in pole position. I'll lean toward the 47% and take my chances with Norris and his faster car.
Verstappen showed he could outpace McLaren in qualifying, but it will be an entirely different scenario in a more gruelling and extended grand prix. Norris' 2025 resume speaks for itself, winning the Australian Grand Prix before finishing as the runner-up to teammate Piastri in China. Coincidentally, our robot acquaintance ChatGPT also backed Norris in the Japanese Grand Prix AI predictions.
Most of our best sports betting sites have Norris pegged at +125, which would profit $12.50 if he wins.
💎 Best value bet to win Japanese Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc (+2500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Leclerc has been about as disappointing to start the season as a hole-filled umbrella, finishing eighth and 18th in the first two races. I can't see him or Ferrari continuing their disastrous trajectory, especially after the Monegasque driver finished fourth in qualifying.
While Ferrari hasn't proven an ability to sustain a rapid pace while minimizing mistakes, this could be the race. Leclerc was excellent in Japan last year, finishing fourth, and DraftKings' outlier price of +2500 is too good to ignore. His chances of winning are better than what the 3.85% implied probability indicates.
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🎯 Best long shot to win Japanese Grand Prix: George Russell (+2200 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
If you've been following our F1 picks and predictions, you'll know I'm a massive Russell proponent. He finished on the podium in Melbourne and Shanghai, collecting third place in both races. That consistency spilled over to the preamble in Japan, where he finished fifth in qualifying, second in P1, and third in P3.
I'm happy to take a flier on the Brit, who has been one of the best drivers to start the season. A winning $10 bet would profit $220.
💰 Best Japanese Grand Prix prop bets & picks at Suzuka Circuit
🔥 Best prop bet for Japanese Grand Prix: Max Verstappen fastest lap (+400 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Verstappen enjoyed an electric qualifying, outpacing both McLaren drivers. While I don't think he - more notably his car - will have the endurance to stay at the front of the grid, I'm backing the Dutchman to secure the fastest lap, which he did last year in Japan en route to his third straight win.
A winning $10 bet at bet365 would yield a $40 profit.
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🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Japanese Grand Prix: Yuki Tsunoda podium finish (+3300 via bet365) ⭐⭐
Tsunoda's +3300 odds at bet365 carry a 2.94% implied win probability. I'm willing to toss his hat in the ring for two primary reasons: First, he's been promoted to partner Verstappen at Red Bull. Second, he's racing in front of thousands of passionate fans in his home nation. If Tsunoda can harness and channel his off-the-wall adrenaline, he might just have a shot.
That said, it's a long way back from starting in 15th spot on the grid.
📈 Japanese Grand Prix qualifying results
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
- Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls Honda RBPT)
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- Alexander Albon (Williams)
- Ollie Bearman (Haas)
🏎️ Japanese Grand Prix P1 results
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Yuki Tsunoda (Red Bull)
- Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
- Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls Honda RBPT)
- Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
- Carlos Sainz (Williams)
🏎️ Japanese Grand Prix P2 results
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls Honda RBPT)
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls Honda RBPT)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Pierre Gasly (Alpine Renault)
- Carlos Sainz (Williams)
🏎️ Japanese Grand Prix P3 results
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- Alexander Albon (Williams)
- Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
- Yuki Tsunoda (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls Honda RBPT)
📈 Japanese Grand Prix trends & history
- Verstappen and Red Bull have won the Japanese Grand Prix three times in a row
- In 34 Japanese Grand Prix races, pole position has won 18 times
- Mercedes won the previous six (Hamilton four times)
- It's been 21 years since Ferrari won at the Suzuka Circuit
- Norris and Piastri finished on the podium in 2023, the first time McLaren had two racers on the podium since 2003
- McLaren, Ferarri, and Red Bull are tied with the most Japanese Grand Prix victories (7)
- Suzuka’s figure-of-eight layout is unique for a Formula 1 circuit
- Michael Schumacher has six wins at the Suzuka circuit, the most
- Schumacher also has the most podiums (9) and pole positions (8)
- Hamilton won four times at the Japanese Grand Prix, tied for the second most with Sebastian Vettel
💡 How to bet on Japanese Grand Prix
When betting on any Grand Prix, there are many things to consider, some more crucial than others:
- Follow what happens closely during the practice sessions
- While the practice sessions should be used to inform your picks, qualifying is the most important part of the pre-race festivities. You might get better odds picking a driver before qualifying, but it could also make winning much more challenging if qualifying doesn't go well.
- Check the forecast and find out which teams/drivers perform well in various conditions. For example, Verstappen took advantage of a rain-soaked track at the Australian Grand Prix for the season opener.
- Take a look at historic Japanese Grand Prix results, seeing who has established a successful track record. For example, Hamilton has the most wins in Japan of the current grid. However, he finished eighth in qualifying, which bears more weight.
🏆 Past Japanese Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the last 10 Japanese Grand Prix winners.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull RBPT |
| 2021 | Canceled | Covid-19 |
| 2020 | Canceled | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | 🇫🇮 Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (Then Mercedes) |
| 2017 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (Then Mercedes) |
| 2016 | 🇩🇪 Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (then Mercedes) |
| 2014 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (then Mercedes) |
📺 How to watch the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix
📅 Race date: Sunday, April 6
🕒 Start time: 1 a.m. ET
📍 Track: Suzuka Circuit (Suzuka City, Mie Prefecture, Japan)
📺 TV: ESPN
Streaming: ESPN+
☀️ Weather: 59 degrees, 6 mph to 10 mph winds, 80% chance of precipitation (2-4 mm)
❓ Japanese Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Japanese Grand Prix?
Lando Norris, who won the Australian Grand Prix, is the +125 moneyline favorite.
What are the odds for the Japanese Grand Prix?
Lando Norris (+125), Max Verstappen (+175), and Oscar Piastri (+350) have the shortest odds to win the Japanese Grand Prix.
What time is the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?
The Japanese Grand Prix starts at 1 a.m. ET on Sunday, April 6.
How to watch the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix
You can watch the Japanese Grand Prix on ESPN or ESPN+.
Who has won the most Japanese Grand Prix races?
Michael Schumacher has won the Japanese Grand Prix the most (6).
🏁 Best F1 betting sites for Japanese Grand Prix
Looking to bet on the Japanese Grand Prix at the Suzuka Circuit? Here are our top-rated F1 best sports betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of Sunday's race at 1 a.m. ET.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
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