Mexico City Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Predictions 2024: Sainz on Pole for F1's Mexico GP
The Mexico City Grand Prix, the 20th race of the season, will take place at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez on Sunday at 4 p.m. ET on ABC.
Despite joining Williams as the only two teams that didn't make upgrades on their car during the recent month break, Ferrari dominated the United States Grand Prix with Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz finishing first and second, respectively. Sainz is on pole as the betting favorite across our best F1 betting sites today in Mexico.
Max Verstappen, the 2024 Drivers Standings leader, saw his winless run extend to nine races in Austin, Texas. He finished in third place, over 14 seconds off the pace.
Leclerc and Norris have won four of the previous five races, and our Mexico City Grand Prix odds, picks, and predictions expect the Ferrari speedster to win his second straight race.
Mexico City Grand Prix picks
F1 picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best F1 betting sites.
- Favorite to win: Charles Leclerc (+265 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Long shot: Oscar Piastri (+1600 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Prop: Lando Norris fastest lap (+250 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mexico City Grand Prix odds 2024
Odds as of Sunday at 9:55 a.m. ET.
| Driver | Odds (BetMGM) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Sainz | +140 | 41.67% | $14 |
| Lando Norris | +225 | 30.77% | $22.50 |
| Max Verstappen | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Charles Leclerc | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| George Russell | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Oscar Piastri | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
| Sergio Perez | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
Mexico City Grand Prix predictions
Favorite to win: Charles Leclerc ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Leclerc hasn't finished lower than fifth in his last seven races, and he's won two of the previous four.
He's finished on the podium in five of the last seven races and has been one of the most consistent drivers on the circuit since mid-summer.
His only blip of the season, where he finished above 11th only once in four races, was short-lived. Leclerc had five podium finishes in the seven races beforehand.
Ferrari's car looked outstanding in Austin last week, and I'm expecting a similar performance from the driver and car at high altitudes in Mexico City. A $10 winning bet at DraftKings will yield a $26.50 profit.
Best odds: +265 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 27.40%
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Long shot: Oscar Piastri ⭐⭐⭐⭐
McLaren's car performed exquisitely before the recent month-long hiatus. While there were some questions about the car after the first practice session, Norris and Piastri have been dominant recently.
Piastri has five podium finishes in his last seven races, including two first-place and a pair of second-place finishes. He endured his worst result in Austin since the Spanish Grand Prix, but that was probably an isolated off-day and nothing too concerning in the long term.
While he finished sixth in the first practice session, Piastri represents a solid pick, particularly at +1600 odds at FanDuel.
Best odds: +1600 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 5.88%
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Prop: Lando Norris fastest lap ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Norris secured the fastest lap in three of the last five races and is a perennial threat to hit this prop. Norris has won the fastest lap four times this season, the most of any driver.
He's also the favorite to win the race and should finish on the podium, increasing the likelihood of having one lightning-quick lap. The +250 odds at FanDuel are the same as his odds to win the race at DraftKings. A winning $10 bet will yield a $25 profit.
Best odds: +250 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 28.57%
Past Mexico City Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing - Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing - RBPT |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing - Honda |
| 2020 | No Race | No Race |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull - Tag Heuer |
| 2017 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull - Tag Heuer |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
Mexico City Grand Prix info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 27
- Time: 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez (Mexico City)
- How to watch: ABC, ESPN+
- Defending winner: Max Verstappen
- Favorite: Carlos Sainz (+140 via BetMGM)
Here are our best F1 betting sites:
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- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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