2024 Monaco Grand Prix Predictions & Expert Picks: Updated Betting Lines with Leclerc on Pole
The Monaco Grand Prix, a highlight of the 2024 F1 calendar, gets underway at the Circuit de Monaco on Sunday, and we have you covered with our picks and predictions based on the odds from our best F1 betting sites with pole-sitter Charles Leclerc as the betting favorite.
Max Verstappen, who won the Monaco Grand Prix in 2023, will not start this year's race from the pole position, falling short of breaking Ayrton Senna's record of nine consecutive poles. Instead, Charles Leclerc secured the coveted pole position for the tight-quarters race, making himself the betting favorite according to the Monaco Grand Prix odds.
Despite not starting at the front, Verstappen has had a stellar season so far, winning five of the seven races. He is also the defending champion at Circuit de Monaco. The race is set to start at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday from Monte Carlo, Monaco.
Here are our 2024 Monaco Grand Prix picks and predictions based on the F1 odds (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monaco Grand Prix picks
Picks made Friday
- Favorite: Max Verstappen ML (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Long shot: Carlos Sainz (+1800 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Prop: Lando Norris fastest lap (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Monaco Grand Prix odds 2024
Odds updated at Sunday at 6:18 a.m. ET.
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Leclerc | -235 | -260 | -250 | -225 🔥 | -300 ❄️ |
| Oscar Piastri | +550 🔥 | +470 ❄️ | +500 | +475 | +500 |
| Max Verstappen | +850 | +750 ❄️ | +800 | +800 | +1200 🔥 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1200 | +1400 | +1200 | +1400 | +1200 |
| Lando Norris | +1300 | +1400 🔥 | +1200 | +1000 ❄️ | +1200 |
| George Russell | +3000 | +5000 🔥 | +2500 ❄️ | +4000 | +4000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +5500 | +6000 🔥 | +4000 ❄️ | +5000 | +5000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +40000 🔥 | +20000 | +20000 | +30000 | +25000 |
| Alex Albon | +40000 ❄️ | +42000 | +50000 | +150000 🔥 | +50000 |
Monaco Grand Prix predictions
Favorite: Max Verstappen (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Monaco Grand Prix is unrivaled for its pomp and pageantry, and the race is more important to some drivers than remembering their wedding anniversaries or significant other’s birthday.
Verstappen won last year's event and is the dominant force in F1 racing. The 26-year-old phenom won 19 of 22 races last season, including last season's Monaco Grand Prix. Red Bull has won 36 of the previous 40 races, with only two drivers, Sainz and Lando Norris, beating the preeminent racing team since 2022.
Due to its abundance of treacherous hairpin turns and with no margin for error, securing pole position is more crucial at the Monaco Grand Prix than any other race. Verstappen had won eight successive pole positions, one shy of the all-time mark.
At -110, FanDuel offers the best odds of our best sports betting apps. It's impossible to turn a blind eye to Verstappen at those odds, which imply a winning probability of 52.38%. A winning $10 bet pays a profit of $9.09. If Verstappen wins, it will be his third at the storied Monte Carlo track.
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Long shot: Carlos Sainz (+1800 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Carlos Sainz is positioned well to make a solid run at the Monaco Grand Prix. While everything depends on qualifying, the Ferrari driver will try to replicate his victory at the 2023 Singapore Grand Prix, another street race Sainz likened to Monte Carlo.
In recent rounds, Ferrari and McLaren introduced upgrades, bridging the gap between them and front-runners Red Bull. Those tweaks should facilitate faster times for Sainz in Monte Carlo.
The 29-year-old Spaniard won the Australian Grand Prix and scored points on his eight appearances at Circuit de Monaco, taking second in 2021 and 2022. He sits fifth in the driver's standings, 68 points behind Verstappen.
At +1800, Caesars offers excellent value to win his first Monaco Grand Prix. The odds imply a 5.26% probability, and a $10 bet pays a profit of $180 if it hits.
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Prop: Lando Norris fastest lap (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
As mentioned, Mercedes has made improvements that should facilitate consistently faster lap times. Lando Norris had the fastest lap at the Monaco Grand Prix in 2022 and won the Miami Grand Prix earlier in May. While he hasn't had a fastest lap yet in the current campaign, he's been knocking on the door and should be bursting with confidence after his victory in Miami.
DraftKings offers excellent value for Norris to repeat his 2022 fastest lap, implying a 20% probability. A $10 winning wager will pay a profit of $40.
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Previous Monaco Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2022 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
Monaco Grand Prix info
Date: Sunday, May 26, 9 a.m. ET
Location: Circuit de Monaco, Monte Carlo, Monaco
How to watch: ESPNews, ESPN+
Defending winner: Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Monaco Grand Prix picks made Friday at 10 a.m. ET
Here are our best F1 betting sites:
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- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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