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Spanish Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Predictions 2024: Verstappen Favored to Repeat in Barcelona

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: June 22, 2024 12:29 PM EDT • 2 min 51 sec read.

Red Bull Racing driver Max Verstappen races during the qualifying session as we convey our top picks and predictions for Sunday's Spanish Grand Prix.
Red Bull Racing driver Max Verstappen races during the qualifying session of the Canadian Grand Prix at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. Photo by David Kirouac via USA TODAY Sports

The F1 season returns to Europe and a more familiar and conventional track for Sunday's Spanish Grand Prix at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, and we have you covered with our Spanish GP picks and predictions based on the F1 odds from our best F1 betting sites. 

Sunday represents the 54th edition of the Spanish GP, with Max Verstappen looking to win his third straight at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. Red Bull is expected to fare much better in Spain, as the track is conducive to less kerb-riding and higher average speeds, particularly on corners.

The driver who takes pole has won three of the last five Spanish Grand Prixs and 24 overall, placing heightened importance on Saturday's qualifying session. Lewis Hamilton was the fastest in the first two practice sessions, while Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris also performed well, finishing second and third, respectively. Verstappen is the favorite to win his seventh race of the season, and the Red Bull driver is also the behemoth F1 Championship odds favorite. 

Here are our 2024 Spanish GP picks and predictions based on the F1 odds for Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Spanish Grand Prix picks

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Spanish Grand Prix odds 2024

(Odds updated Saturday at noon ET) 

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Max Verstappen-145 ❄️-130-139-120-120
Lando Norris+165+170 🔥+140 ❄️+163+150
Lewis Hamilton+1200+1600 🔥+1000+1100+1000
George Russell+1800+1600 ❄️+2200 🔥+1800+1800
Charles Leclerc+2200+3200 🔥+2800+2500+2200
Carlos Sainz+2800+2800+4000 🔥+2800+2800
Oscar Piastri+6500+5000+6600+5000+6600
Sergio Perez+10000+11000+10000+12500 🔥+10000
Pierre Gasly+25000+20000 ❄️+25000+25000+25000

Spanish Grand Prix predictions

Spanish Grand Prix picks made Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET. Odds listed here may vary from current prices.

Favorite: Max Verstappen (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I'd love to back somebody, anybody, not named Max Verstappen. Unfortunately, the Spanish GP is not the race to deviate from the minus-money favorite. Verstappen won the Canadian GP, his sixth victory in nine races, despite not securing pole position after qualification. Red Bull also struggled with various pre-race issues in Canada, the most notable of which had the team concerned about the car's kerb-riding weaknesses. 

Verstappen still won that race, finding a way to overcome the perceived impediments. Red Bull won't have similar issues in Barcelona at a circuit Verstappen is extremely fond of. He won the last two races at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, the setting of his first-ever race win in 2016 when he was only 18. The -125 odds at DraftKings imply a 55.56% probability and a $10 wager pays a profit of $8. 

Long shot: Lewis Hamilton (+1100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hamilton hasn't won a race since taking the checkered flag at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in December 2021. But he was excellent at the Canadian GP, finishing fourth, and was the pacesetter in the first practice session. He was also the last winner here not named Verstappen. Before Verstappen's current two-race win streak, Hamilton won five in a row in Spain. 

Sunday's race at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya could represent the perfect storm for Hamilton. Not only is he long overdue for a win, but his familiarity and previous domination at the event bodes well for the Mercedes driver. He's the fourth favorite at FanDuel, behind Verstappen, Norris, and teammate George Russell. The +1100 odds imply an 8.33% probability, and a $10 bet will pay a $110 profit if he pulls off the upset. 

Prop: Lewis Hamilton fastest lap (+500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hamilton and Mercedes are quickly closing the gap between them and Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren. Hamilton had the fastest lap at the last two races (Canadian GP, Monaco GP) and finished with the third-fastest lap in last year's Spanish GP and the second-fastest in 2022. He also had the fastest lap in three of his five straight race wins in Spain from 2017-21. 

Previous Spanish Grand Prix winners

YearDriverTeam
2023Max VerstappenRed Bull Racing-Honda RBPT
2022Max VerstappenRed Bull Racing-Honda RBPT
2021Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2020Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2019Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2018Lewis Hamilton Mercedes
2017Lewis Hamilton Mercedes

Spanish Grand Prix info

Date: Sunday, June 23, 9 a.m. ET
Location: Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya (Barcelona, Spain)
How to watch: ESPN, ESPN+
Defending winner: Max Verstappen

Here are our best F1 betting sites:

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson has written professionally since 2010, focusing on sports betting since 2014. Before entering the sports betting space, he contributed to the Canadian Press, FanSided, the Hockey Writers, the Calgary Herald, and other publications. His work has also been featured in Sports Illustrated and Bleacher Report. Gary, who consumes sports like a blue whale devours plankton, has a penchant for writing predictions and analyses across several sports, including hockey, soccer, football, tennis, and more. He bets regularly, preferring single-game picks, props, and live betting. While there isn't a sport he has yet to dabble in, Gary prefers betting on soccer, hockey, and football. He studied at various post-secondary institutions, including the University of Calgary, SAIT Polytechnic, and Griffith University, located in Brisbane, Australia. Gary has a marketing degree and completed his bachelor's degree in journalism at Griffith University. He feels strongly that life experience is as essential as post-secondary education, helping formulate more accurate predictions and analyses. Gary believes that competing at a high level of amateur sports during his formative years helped him better understand an athlete's psyche and the nuances and complexities of a team's dynamic, both on and off the playing surface. He feels that knowledge is immeasurably important when offering his analytical expertise. He has lived on five continents and currently resides in Canada.