United States Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Predictions 2024: Verstappen a Clear Favorite Over Norris
Every team besides Ferrari and Williams enter Sunday's race after performing upgrades on their car, but has Red Bull done enough to bridge the recent performance gap?
Max Verstappen won Saturday's sprint, which bodes well for the defending champion and Red Bull. The Dutchman increased his lead atop the Drivers Standings to 52 points after the sprint victory.
He's second on the starting grid behind pole-sitter Lando Norris.
- Verstappen has taken over as the favorite across our best sports betting sites, leapfrogging Norris after the sprint result
- McLaren has won three of the last four races, with Norris winning two
- Verstappen is looking to win for the first time since the Spanish Grand Prix in June
Our United States Grand Prix odds, picks & predictions analyze whether Norris can reignite the momentum he created before the break. Sean Tomlinson is looking ahead to the Las Vegas Grand Prix odds.
United States Grand Prix picks
F1 picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best F1 betting sites.
- Favorite: Lando Norris (+300 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Long shot: Oscar Piastri (+1600 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Prop: Lando Norris (+270 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
United States Grand Prix odds 2024
Odds as of Sunday at 9 a.m. ET and subject to change.
| Driver | Odds (BetMGM) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -125 | 55.56% | $8 |
| Lando Norris | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Charles Leclerc | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| George Russell | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Sergio Perez | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +25000 | 0.40% | $2500 |
| Fernando Alonso | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
United States Grand Prix predictions 2024
Picks made Saturday, odds subject to change.
Favorite: Lando Norris ⭐⭐⭐
The break couldn't have come at a better time for Red Bull, whose car has been inferior to McLaren's for most of the summer. Early indications are promising after Verstappen won Saturday's sprint. The recent developments have lengthened Norris' odds to win Sunday's race. He finished fourth in Saturday's sprint.
However, until Red Bull and Verstappen prove it on race day, I'm sticking with the in-form Norris, who can do no wrong lately. He won in Singapore and in Holland a month earlier, breaking Verstappen's string of three consecutive wins at his home Grand Prix.
If Norris wins in Austin, he will repeat that rare and impressive feat, as Verstappen is looking for his fourth straight U.S. Grand Prix triumph.
Norris finished the sprint qualification in fourth, so all eyes are now on Saturday's sprint and qualification to see whether he can challenge Verstappen in the former and take pole in the latter.
bet365 offers the best price, and a winning $10 bet will profit $30.
Best odds: +300 via bet365 | Implied probability: 25%
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Long shot: Oscar Piastri ⭐⭐⭐
I love the +1100 price for Piastri. In September, he won in Azerbaijan, and he's been one of the most consistent drivers since early May. The McLaren driver finished off the podium just once in the last six races and has two wins in the previous six.
Piastri, whose odds lengthened after being eliminated from the sprint for exceeding the track limits in qualifying, will be hellbent on bouncing back during qualification.
Piastri has finished below fourth place in only one of the last 12 races. A winning $10 bet will profit $160 if he wins on Sunday.
Best odds: +1600 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 5.88%
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Prop: Norris fastest lap ⭐⭐⭐
Norris had the fastest lap in three of the last four races. He has four fastest laps overall.
There are questions about whether his car will be fast enough after finishing fourth in sprint qualifying, but I'm going with the most confident driver in the fastest car. At least it was the fastest before the brief hiatus.
A winning $10 bet will profit $27.
Best odds: +270 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 27.03%
Past United States Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda |
| 2020 | No race | No race |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Kimi Räikkönen | Ferrari |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2014 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
2024 United States Grand Prix race info
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 20
- Time: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Circuit of The Americas (Austin, Texas)
- How to watch: ABC, ESPN+
- Defending winner: Max Verstappen
- Favorite: Verstappen (-125 via BetMGM)
Here are our best F1 betting sites:
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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