Canada Election Odds: Carney's Liberals Pull Away as Favorites for Majority Ahead of April 28 Election
The next Canadian federal election is just under two weeks away on April 28. The Liberals have continually been sprinting away as the favorite in the Canadian federal election odds since the Party elected Mark Carney as its leader.
The Conservative Party was a colossal favorite before Donald Trump's election in the United States, when Justin Trudeau was Prime Minister and head of the Liberal Party. However, a simmering trade war with the United States and Canada's positive reception of Carney have made the Liberals look like the party is heading toward a majority government.
Several of the best sportsbooks in Canada offer odds on the 45th federal election, including how many seats each party will claim.
📊 45th Canadian federal election betting odds
This market is set for the "Sworn in Government." Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 16, 2025.
| Party | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party (LPC) | -310 | 75.61% | $3.23 |
| Conservatives (CPC) | +220 | 31.25% | $22 |
| Any other party | +7500 | 1.32% | $750 |
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🆕 Latest Canadian federal election odds & news
- April 16: There's been mild movement back toward the Conservatives, though the Liberals still hold a clear advantage by the odds amid Carney's handling of Trump's views on trade. The Liberals have recently lengthened from -345 to -310, with the Conservatives going from +245 to +220.
- March 22: The Liberals became -150 betting favorites with the Conservatives going to +110 with reports of an election being called for April 28
- March 10: Conservatives slip to -225, Liberals shorten to +162
- March 9: Liberals elect Mark Carney as the new leader, replacing Justin Trudeau
🇨🇦 Which party is the 45th Canadian federal election betting odds favorite?
This main Canadian federal election betting market asks for the sworn-in government following the April 28 election.
🔴 Liberal Party (LPC): -310
It was once impossible to imagine the Liberals as the favorites to win the Canadian election, with the Conservatives holding a gargantuan lead by the odds earlier in the winter. However, the party has been surging amid widespread anger in the country toward Trump's approach to trade.
The Liberals started to experience positive momentum when Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, and they've been soaring since Carney took over. While an election victory is still far from guaranteed, it seems clear that Canadians' desire for change may not mean the party after all.
The Liberals are far ahead as favorites while striving for a majority government.
While it's far from a rule, the Ontario provincial government has been largely the opposite of the federal government over the last three decades. Ontario elected PC Doug Ford to a third government on Feb. 27.
Best odds: -310 via FanDuel Ontario | Implied win probability: 75.61%
🔵 Conservatives (CPC): +220
The Conservative Party of Canada has been significantly overtaken as the front-runner to form the next government at our political betting sites in Canada. The CPC once held a massive lead and has gone from -600 (85.71% implied win probability) to +220 (31.25% implied win probability) over the past month.
While the CPC hasn't won a federal election since the Trudeau-led Liberals took over in 2015, it formed two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority government (2011) in the not-too-distant past.
Best odds: +220 via FanDuel Ontario | Implied win probability: 31.25%
🗳️ Next government
Sports Interaction is offering a market on what the next formed government will be. Odds via Sports Interaction as of April 16, 2025.
| Government Type | Odds (SIA) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party Majority | -137 | 57.80% | $7.30 |
| Conservatives Majority | +550 | 15.38% | $55 |
| Liberal Party Minority | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Conservatives Minority | +550 | 15.38% | $55 |
🪑 How many seats will the Liberal Party win?
The Liberals are the new favorites to win the election, but how many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 16, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 or below | +3400 | 2.86% | $340 |
| 100 to 119 | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| 120 to 139 | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| 140 to 159 | +850 | 10.53% | $85 |
| 160 to 179 | -135 | 57.45% | $7.41 |
| 180 to 199 | +170 | 37.04% | $17 |
🪑 How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
The Conservatives are playing catchup in the polls, but how many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 16, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 or below | +1900 | 5% | $190 |
| 100 to 119 | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| 120 to 139 | +230 | 30.30% | $23 |
| 140 to 159 | -125 | 55.56% | $8 |
| 160 to 179 | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| 180 to 199 | +800 | 11.1% | $80 |
🪑 How many seats will the Bloc Quebecois win?
The Bloc Quebecois have slipped behind the Liberals across many regions of their home province. How many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 16, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 9 | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| 10 to 19 | -370 | 78.72% | $2.70 |
| 20 to 29 | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| 30 to 39 | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| 40 or above | +2400 | 4% | $240 |
🪑 How many seats will the NDP win?
The NDP once looked like a rising powerhouse, but polling shows them slipping nationwide. How many seats will they win? Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of April 16, 2025.
| Party | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 4 | +300 | 25% | $30 |
| 5 to 9 | +195 | 33.90% | $19.50 |
| 10 to 14 | -160 | 61.54% | $6.25 |
| 15 or above | +900 | 10% | $90 |
❓Canadian general federal election FAQs
Where can I bet on the Canadian federal election?
You can bet on the Canadian Federal Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our political betting sites in Canada. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."
We're starting to see extra markets emerge, such as the date of the election and which party will become the official opposition.
Who is the favorite for the next Canadian federal election?
The Liberal Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian Federal Election, with odds of -310 representing a 75.61% implied win probability.
Who won the previous Canadian federal election?
The Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.
When is the next Canadian federal election?
The next Canadian federal election is set for Monday, April 28.
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