Fever vs. Mystics Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds: Caitlin Clark to Rebound After Long Layoff
On Friday, No. 1 draft pick Caitlin Clark and her Indiana Fever visit the Washington Mystics, and we have you covered with our best Fever vs. Mystics prediction and expert picks based on the best WNBA odds.
When Caitlin Clark envisioned her first season in the WNBA, it probably didn't consist of a 2-9 start. Unfortunately for her and the Indiana Fever, that's exactly what has transpired three weeks into the 2024 season.
Things are even worse for the winless Washington Mystics (0-10). However, it looks like they may finally get one in the win column as they are lined as 1-point home favorites across our best sports betting sites, with tipoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ION) from Capital One Arena on Friday.
These teams are the longest long shots by the WNBA championship odds. The Mystics are the ones flirting with history (in the wrong way), though the Fever have been in the news for all the wrong reasons amid a slow start for Caitlin Clark, who was among the WNBA MVP odds favorites entering the year.
To complement our Caitlin Clark odds and prop bets, here are our best Fever vs. Mystics predictions for Friday's WNBA matchup.
Fever vs. Mystics expert picks
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.
- Fever +1.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Mystics Under 81.5 points (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Caitlin Clark Over 29.5 pts + reb + ast (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Caitlin Clark Over 5.5 rebounds (+114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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Fever vs. Mystics predictions for Friday
Fever +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Before diving into this matchup, I fully expected the Fever to be the favorites even after their rough start. So you can imagine my surprise - and delight - to see the winless Mystics favored across our best sportsbooks for Friday's contest.
That's a bit puzzling to me. Yes, Indiana owns the worst net rating (minus-16.9) in the WNBA entering Friday, which will happen when you face the New York Liberty three times in 17 days (and lose by a combined 83 points). In all other games, the Fever have been outscored by 7.6 points, even better than Washington (minus-10).
They've also had five days to prepare for the only team in the W without a W, while the Mystics enter this one less than 24 hours removed from losing at home to the physical Chicago Sky - the same team Indiana just beat on Saturday. That game set off a firestorm of hot takes online that, frankly, just might have lit a fire under the Fever in their week off.
There are too many signals for me to ignore the value on the road underdogs, especially in what I expect to be a bounce-back spot for Clark (more on that later). There's a reason I have the Fever ranked higher in my WNBA power rankings, which I'll trust in this spot.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM
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Mystics Under 81.5 points ⭐⭐⭐
The Fever's biggest issue early in the season hasn't been their ability to score, though that's obviously been problematic at times. It's been their defense, which ranked dead last in efficiency (111.8) entering Thursday.
Much like with their net rating, that's inflated by a handful of 100-point performances from some of the best offenses in the WNBA. That won't be a concern against the Mystics, who rank last in offensive rating (89.5) and haven't scored more than 80 points since the preseason.
Let me repeat that again: Washington has played 10 games entering Friday, and it's fallen short of this total all 10 times while averaging 72.2 points per game. With this prop dealing as short as -125 elsewhere, I love these -104 odds via FanDuel, which pay out $9.62 on a $10 wager, per our odds converter.
Best odds: -104 via FanDuel
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Caitlin Clark player props for Friday
Caitlin Clark Over 29.5 pts + reb + ast ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In case you haven't noticed, Clark has been in the news a lot recently, and very little of it has anything to do with her play on the court. (In case you've missed any of it, here's a pretty exhaustive highlight reel.)
I have to imagine that irks a fervent competitor like Clark, who has now had five days since "the foul" to draw from the cacophony of voices supporting and dismissing her. It's also given her time to rest, recover, and rediscover her shot after a brutal early-season stretch against some of the best teams in the WNBA.
Her reward? Forty minutes against a Mystics defense that ranks eighth in efficiency (101.9) and is still without its top perimeter defender in Brittney Sykes (ankle). With the Over on Clark's points total (17.5) dealing anywhere from -122 to -130, I prefer this combined total at a much better price.
Best odds: -110 via bet365
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Caitlin Clark Over 5.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐
Our best live betting sites have oscillated between dealing plus-money odds on the Over and Under for this prop all season long. After a quiet rebounding game for Clark on Sunday, they're back to offering a generous mark on the Over.
That caught my attention ahead of this matchup, in particular, as the Mystics enter Friday ranked dead last in rebounding rate (46.9%) and simply don't have the personnel to keep Clark off the boards if she so chooses. She's cleared this total in five of her last 10 starts with exactly five rebounds in two others.
If you're only placing one bet, I'd make it the combo prop above, which I have a little more confidence in. Personally, I'm compelled to sprinkle a little on both props, especially with this one paying out $11.40 for every $10 wagered.
Best odds: +114 via FanDuel
Fever vs. Mystics odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mystics | -1 (-105) | -1 (-112) | -1.5 (-105) | PK (-105) | -1 (-105) |
| Fever | +1 (-115) | +1 (-108) | +1.5 (-115) | PK (-115) | +1 (-115) |
Fever vs. Mystics game info
- When: Friday, June 7
- Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.)
- How to watch: ION
- Favorite: Mystics -1 (-105 via bet365)
Fever-Mystics predictions made Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET.
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