2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 Expert Picks, Predictions: NASCAR Betting Odds for Michigan

With just three weeks left in the regular season, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Michigan International Speedway as we offer our 2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 expert picks and predictions for Sunday's race, which begins at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.

Denny Hamlin is the pole-sitter, but he shares favorite status at Michigan across our best sports betting sites with Kyle Larson - who owns the shortest odds in the field - and Martin Truex Jr.

Hamlin and Joey Logano were our best bets to win the previous race, but Austin Dillon wrecked them both on the final lap, a move NASCAR punished him for this week by denying him a spot in the playoffs.

That leaves four spots open to compete in the NASCAR Cup Series championship odds with just three weeks remaining until the postseason.

Last year's winner at this track, Chris Buescher, is among the handful of drivers on the playoff bubble who are desperate for a win at Michigan.

Odds to win FireKeepers Casino 400 2024

(Odds via our best sports betting sites as of Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET.  | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

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Michigan International Speedway track analysis

One of the longest tracks on the Cup Series circuit, Michigan International Speedway is known for its blistering speeds and wide, high-banking corners that should make for an entertaining race on Sunday.

The 2-mile D-shaped oval was repaved in 2012 and features some of the longest and widest straightaways in auto racing. It also boasts 73-foot, 18-degree turns that allow drivers to carry more speed through the corners than they otherwise would at other large ovals.

With speeds in excess of 200 miles per hour, this is a track that rewards raw power more than just about anywhere else. Fittingly, Ford has won nine straight races at its "home track," which is just 75 miles from Detroit.

Weather forecast for Michigan International Speedway on Sunday

Last week's race at Richmond managed to escape any sort of natural disturbance - a rarity for NASCAR over the last couple of months.

We might not get so lucky this weekend, as the forecast at Michigan International Speedway calls for rain every day with an 84% chance of precipitation on Sunday, according to AccuWeather.com.

Perhaps the biggest issue is a 32% chance of thunderstorms on the day of the race, which should see temperatures between 60 and 73 degrees. If those storms persist, that could lead to a lengthy delay or even a postponement of Sunday's race.

The last two Cup Series races at Michigan were both delayed or postponed due to rain, with last year's race lasting 74 laps before getting pushed to Monday.

FireKeepers Casino 400 predictions, race preview

Picks made Saturday at 3 a.m. ET prior to practice or qualifying. Odds listed below may vary from the latest prices above.

So many of the tracks lately have been places where Toyota has dominated over the years. This week, it's time for Ford to flex its muscle on its home track.

The Michigan-based manufacturer has won nine consecutive races in its backyard, including last year's dramatic win by Chris Buescher (+1700). He has dark-horse appeal as one of the drivers firmly on the bubble this week, though he finished 14th or worse in eight straight races at Michigan before last yar.

Even if Buescher doesn't repeat, I love Ford's odds via bet365 to extend its win streak here to 10 races (+220), and I have my eyes on a former three-time winner at Michigan to lead the blue ovals back to victory lane.

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Joey Logano to bounce back from Richmond

Last week, we targeted Joey Logano (+1600) as one of our favorite bets to win at Richmond, where he had won twice before with a strong history of top-five finishes.

Sure enough, he was multiple car lengths ahead of Dillon down the final stretch before a "chicken (bleep)" move from the eventual race winner ended Logano's day:

While he ultimately finished 19th, it should have been his second win in five weeks and fifth top-six finish in his last nine races. Now he returns to a track where he's won three times before (2013, 2016, 2019) with 13 top fives and 590 laps led in his last 19 trips.

If Logano can stay focused on racing over retribution, he's got a real shot to pick up his second win of the season ... even if it comes a week later that he had hoped. If he does, these outlier odds from BetMGM would profit $160 on a $10 wager.

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Bubba Wallace eyes playoff spot

If you're looking for a long shot, Bubba Wallace (+2500) is desperate for a win to secure his spot in the playoffs, and he has an encouraging track record at Michigan.

After years of finishing between 19th and 28th, Wallace broke through for his first top-10 at this track in 2020. Two years later, he won his first career pole and finished second in the race with 22 laps led in one of the best weekends of his career:

Wallace led another 21 laps last year with 16 stage points before late strategy worked against him in an 18th-place finish. Those combined 43 laps led are the fifth-most at this track by any driver in the Next Gen car, and none led more than 20 laps in both races.

The No. 23 car has also qualified well ahead of the last four races here, which is especially important at Michigan - just two of the last eight winners have started from outside the top 12. If Wallace does well Saturday, I like his chances on Sunday.

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NASCAR expert picks to win at Michigan

NASCAR picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

• Joey Logano (+1600 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Bubba Wallace (+2500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

NASCAR props, best bets for Michigan

• Ford to win (+220 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Joey Logano top five (+210 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Bubba Wallace top 10 (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

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How to watch 2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 18 at 2:30 p.m. ET
• Track: Michigan International Speedway (Brooklyn, Mich.)
• Length: 2 miles (200 laps, 400 total miles)
• How to watch: USA Network
• Defending winner: Chris Buescher
• Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+600 via bet365)

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