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Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions & Odds for 2023 US Open Final

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 9, 2023 5:29 PM EDT • 3 min 46 sec read.

Soon-to-be world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka faces her second consecutive American opponent as she battles teenager Coco Gauff during Saturday's US Open women's final. Check out our Gauff-Sabalenka prediction based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Coco Gauff has been linked to Serena Williams in many ways throughout this impressive US Open run. Gauff is the first American teen to advance to the US Open final since Williams in 2001, and at age 19, is the youngest American teen to reach the final since Serena did it at age 17 in 1999. And having reached the French Open final in 2022, Gauff is the youngest two-time women's Major Finalist since Maria Sharapova in 2006. 

Aryna Sabalenka will be the No. 1 player in the world when the new WTA rankings come out next week. This year's US Open semifinal appearance was her third straight and fifth consecutive major semifinal overall (and seventh of the previous nine). Sabalenka improved to 2-5 in major semifinals with a three-set victory (0-6, 7-6, 7-6) over American Madison Keys. After winning this year's Australian Open, she now seeks her second career Grand Slam title on a hard court.  

Here are our best Gauff vs. Sabalenka predictions for the 2023 US Open final (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka odds

(Odds via FanDuel)

Coco Gauff Aryna Sabalenka
Moneyline+108-130
Spread+1.5 (-118)-1.5 (-112)

Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka prediction

Sabalenka ML (-120 via BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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It’s a good feeling entering this final knowing we are bound to be a winner, as we tipped Sabalenka (+500) or any American woman (+330) to win the tournament in our US Open preview. 

In tennis betting, one player is often so heavily favored over another that it forces one to dig deep and look at other markets that present better value, like set betting or the games spread. Fortunately, with this being a coin-flip match, we can focus solely on who will win outright.

There is much to like about Gauff's chances, starting with the obvious that she will undoubtedly have the crowd on her side playing on American soil. And since her surprising first-round exit at Wimbledon, she has brought coach Brad Gilbert onto her team, which has instantly resulted in winning 17 of her last 18 matches, with seven of those wins coming against top 20 opponents and two hardcourt titles.

However, Sabalenka has been more consistent at Grand Slams for much longer and showed the mental fortitude needed to block out the pro-American crowd to get by Keys, especially after getting shut out in the first set.

Sabalenka's victory over Keys should not be understated, as she broke Keys' serve three times after the American entered the match having held serve in 24 of her previous 25 service games. And Karolina Muchova provided a blueprint for attacking Gauff in her semifinal match. 

Before getting down 1-5 in the first set, Muchova hit 40% of her shots to Gauff's forehand side and 27% to her backhand. Between 5-1 and the delay for the protesters, Muchova hit 58% of her shots to Gauff's forehand and 18% to her backhand, knowing that Gauff's forehand can be wobbly. 

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Look for Sabalenka to take advantage of that and for her power to be too much for Gauff, just as it was at Indian Wells this year when Sabalenka cruised to an easy 6-4, 6-0 victory. This is a three-star play, as Sabalenka is an impressive 21-5 at the US Open and 13-0 in hardcourt matches at majors this year.

Get ready for the men's US Open final with our Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic prediction.

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US Open Final best odds

BetMGM, bet365 (-120)

DraftKingsFanDuelCaesarsBetMGMbet365
Sabalenka MLSabalenka MLSabalenka MLSabalenka MLSabalenka ML
-130-125-130-120-120

There is not much separating the five major sportsbooks in terms of moneyline odds, as BetMGM and bet365 offer the best value for Sabalenka backers at -120 odds, while Caesars and DraftKings do not break the bank at -130. 

Since there is no dominant favorite in the match, it is unsurprising to see a game spread of Sabalenka -0.5 (-115). And for what it is worth, Gauff has covered the game spread in five of her last six WTA finals. 

Given that Sabalenka has won at least one set in each of her previous 60 Grand Slam main draw matches, we do not find any value in the +200 odds found at BetMGM for Gauff to beat Sabalenka in straight sets.

US Open Final match info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 9 at 4 p.m. ET
  • Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Queens, NY
  • How to watch: ESPN

Gauff-Sabalenka pick made 9/8/2023 at 7:06 a.m. ET

Tennis betting odds pages

Australian Open OddsWimbledon Odds
French Open OddsUS Open Odds

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”