2024 Indy 500 Predictions & Expert Picks: Josef Newgarden our Favorite at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
We've nearly arrived at the Greatest Spectacle in racing as we get you ready with our Indy 500 picks and predictions based on the Indy 500 odds from our best sports betting sites.
The excitement of IndyCar racing will peak with the 108th running of the prestigious Indianapolis 500 on Sunday, commencing at 12:45 p.m. ET at the renowned Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
All eyes are on Scott McLaughlin, the pole sitter and consensus favorite by the Indy 500 odds, closely trailed by Josef Newgarden. Tradition holds that the winning driver will celebrate by chugging a glass of milk and planting a kiss on the iconic bricks at the finish line.
Josef Newgarden etched his name in history last season with a thrilling last-lap maneuver, securing his first Indy 500 triumph. There were several caution periods and three red flags as fourteen drivers took turns leading, with four drivers leading for over 30 laps each.
Adding to the intrigue is the IndyCar debut of former NASCAR champion Kyle Larson, undertaking "The Double" challenge. Larson showcased his skills during qualifying, placing his No. 17 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet on the second row. After the Indy 500, he'll embark on a swift journey to North Carolina to compete in NASCAR's longest race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, where he's tipped as the favorite by the 2024 Coca-Cola 600 picks.
Here are our 2024 Indy 500 picks and predictions based on the odds for Indianapolis Motor Speedway (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Indy 500 picks
- Favorite: Josef Newgarden (+550 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Long shot: Santino Ferrucci (+2200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Prop: Both Kyle Larson and Josef Newgarden to finish top 5 (+225 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Indy 500 odds 2024
Indy 500 odds last updated Sunday at 6:45 a.m. ET.
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McLaughlin | +500 | +500 | +550 | +550 | +500 |
| Josef Newgarden | +550 | +550 | +525 | +500 | +500 |
| Will Power | +700 | +750 | +800 | +850 🔥 | +700 |
| Kyle Larson | +750🔥 | +550 ❄️ | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Alexander Rossi | +1000 | +900 | +1000 | +750 ❄️ | +1000 |
| Colton Herta | +1000 | +800 ❄️ | +1000 | +1000 | +1200 🔥 |
| Pato O’Ward | +1100 | +1000 | +1100 | +800 | +800 |
| Alex Palou | +1200 | +1500 🔥 | +1300 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Scott Dixon | +1400 | +1000 | +700 ❄️ | +1500 | +1400 |
| Helio Castroneves | +1600 ❄️ | +1800 | +3000 | +2500 | +4000 🔥 |
Indy 500 favorite: Josef Newgarden (+550 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Newgarden enters the weekend as the defending race winner after kissing the bricks for the first time in his career last season. His trip to victory lane was just his second podium finish in 12 starts on the storied oval. The Tennessee native started 17th on the grid that day and took advantage of a late caution on his way to the checkered flag.
Newgarden will roll off from third position alongside fellow Penske teammates Scott McLaughlin and Will Power. Drivers starting outside the front row have won the race 13 times in the history of the Indy 500, second only to the 21 winners from pole position.
In addition to his recent success, Newgarden has compiled 15 wins on paved tracks, including six victories in Iowa, three on the Texas Motor Speedway, four at World Wide Technology Raceway, and his win in Indianapolis. The +550 odds at DraftKings represent a 15.38% probability, and a $10 winning bet pays a profit of $55.
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Indy 500 long shot: Santino Ferrucci (+2200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Five of the six drivers occupying the first two rows on the starting grid are among the favorites to win this race, with Ferruci, who will start from the sixth position, the only exclusion.
In contrast to his long odds, the Woodbury, Connecticut native has a decent track record here. He has logged a top-10 finish in all five of his career starts on the Indianapolis Oval, with his best finish coming last year when he crossed the finish line in third place.
The 25-year-old driver has yet to win a race in his 64 career starts. However, he secured his first career podium at the Indy 500 last season. Drivers starting sixth on the grid have won this race five times. Ferrucci will be in a great position on Sunday to grab his first-ever win.
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Indy 500 prop: Both Kyle Larson and Josef Newgarden top 5 finish (+225 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Larson, the favorite by the NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, is attempting to compete in the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600 on Sunday. Should Larson log all 1,100 miles, he will become the fifth driver to pull the double.
Larson has put himself in a favorable position for the first leg of his day by qualifying fifth at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Should he maintain his speed during last weekend’s practice and qualifying, he will have no problem logging a top-5 finish. Larson has compiled six top-5 finishes in 13 races in his NASCAR ride this season, including a win on the 1.5-mile track in Las Vegas. In 2021, Larson led 327 laps in Charlotte, winning from the pole position.
Newgarden's starting position has given him a better-than-average shot at winning this race for the second year running. He has proven to be one of the best on paved tracks and has three top-5 finishes in his previous five races at the Indy 500. The +225 odds come with an implied probability of 30.77%, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $22.50 if it hits.
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Indy 500 picks made Thursday at 12 p.m. ET.
How to bet on the Indy 500
Once you've chosen your favorite of our best live betting sites, navigate to the motorsport or auto racing section. Look for the Indy 500 specifically, which is usually prominently featured ahead of race day due to its popularity. You'll find various betting options available, including outright winner, podium finish, head-to-head matchups, and more.
Review the odds for each driver and consider factors such as past performance, track record, and current form. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.
It's essential to remember that betting on the Indy 500 or any other sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Stay updated on the race, as factors like weather conditions and driver changes can impact the outcome. Enjoy the thrill of the race and may your bet be a winning one!
How to watch Indy 500
- When: Sunday, May 26 at 12:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway (Speedway, Ind.)
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock (streaming)
- Defending winner: Josef Newgarden
- Favorite: Scott McLaughlin (+450 via BetMGM)
Past Indy 500 winners
| Driver | Year |
|---|---|
| Josef Newgarden | 2023 |
| Marcus Ericsson | 2022 |
| Helio Castroneves | 2021 |
| Takuma Sato | 2020 |
| Simon Pagenaud | 2019 |
| Will Power | 2018 |
| Takuma Sato | 2017 |
| Alexander Rossi | 2016 |
| Juan Pablo Montoya | 2015 |
| Ryan Hunter-Reay | 2014 |
Motorsports betting odds pages
| NASCAR Cup Series Odds | Indy 500 Odds |
| F1 Driver/Constructor Series Championship Odds | Monaco Grand Prix Odds |
| Las Vegas Grand Prix Odds |
Indy 500 FAQs
Who is the Indy 500 favorite?
Scott McLaughlin is the favorite to win the 2024 Indy 500 after setting a track record with his qualifying time. His consensus +450 odds carry an implied win probability of 18.18% and would pay out $45 in profit on a $10 wager.
When is the 2024 Indy 500?
The race is set to run on Sunday, May 26, 2024. The green flag will fall at 12:45 p.m. ET at famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Where is the Indy 500?
The race is held annually at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Speedway, Ind.
Who is the honorary 2024 Indy 500 starter?
The honorary starter for the 2024 Indy 500 is author Aaron Likens.
Who won last year's Indy 500?
Josef Newgarden won the 2023 running of the Indy 500, overtaking 2022 winner Marcus Ericsson on the final lap to win in his 12th attempt. He became the third driver in the history of the race to win on a last-lap pass, and his 11 previous tries were tied for the most starts before eventually winning this race.
Why does the Indy 500 winner drink milk?
The tradition started when Louis Meyer requested a glass of buttermilk after winning his second Indy 500 race in 1933. He did so again following his third win in 1936, and he was photographed swigging from the bottle of milk while holding up three fingers to signify the third triumph.
A local dairy company - unaware Meyer was drinking buttermilk - offered a bottle of milk to the winners of future races. Milk has been presented each year since then, apart from 1947 to 1955.
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