Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Wimbledon Semifinal 2025 Expert Picks
Every tennis fan will be tuning in to Friday's Wimbledon semifinal between titans of the men's game, as we offer our Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic prediction, odds, and best bet.
This could represent Djokovic's best remaining chance of equaling Roger Federer's eight Wimbledon titles, but can he overcome the world no. 1 who has dominated recent head-to-head matchups?
Sinner, receiving the second-shortest Wimbledon odds behind Carlos Alcaraz, is also the clear favorite across our best sports betting sites to oust the 24-time major champion.
🎾 Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic prediction & best bet
🔎 Our NEW player props odds tool can help you find the best Wimbledon odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!
✅ Pick to win: Jannik Sinner (-210 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Over 38.5 games (-130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I broke down the Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz prediction for Friday's other semifinal here.
Read on for the latest odds and full analysis of our best bets ⤵️
📊 Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic odds: Wimbledon Semifinal 2025
Latest Wimbledon odds via BetMGM; implied probability via our odds converter.
| Player | Odds to win | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | -210 | 67.74% |
| Novak Djokovic | +170 | 37.04% |
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🏆 Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic expert pick to win
✅ Jannik Sinner ⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -210 via BetMGM ($10 to win $4.76)
🔢 Implied probability: 67.74%
Unless you're Hugh Grant, you won't be able to sleep through this semifinal. To my chagrin, I bet against Sinner in the quarterfinal against Ben Shelton, figuring his injured elbow would derail his chances of winning his first Wimbledon title.
Well, he showed no ill effect from the right elbow, throttling Shelton for a sixth straight time. That leads me to believe he's playing at full capacity, which doesn't bode well for the seven-time Wimbledon champion.
While Sinner hasn't beaten Djokovic on grass yet, having lost the 2023 Wimbledon semifinal and the 2022 quarterfinal, he has dominated Djokovic recently, winning four straight.
Three of those victories came via straight sets. Most recently, Sinner swatted aside Djokovic in three sets in the 2025 French Open semifinal.
Excluding Sinner's bizarre and uncharacteristic performance against Grigor Dimitrov in the Round of 16 - in which he lost the first two sets - the Italian won 10 of the last 11 Grand Slam matches in straight sets.
That's a lot to overcome, even for a player many consider to be the Wimbledon GOAT.
💰 Best Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic prop bet
✅ Over 38.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -130 via Caesars ($10 to win $7.69)
🔢 Implied probability: 56.52%
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If Djokovic's quest for eight titles ends on Friday, he won't go down without making life uncomfortable for Sinner. While it might be a stretch to expect five sets, Djoker should win at least one.
In addition, each set should be more competitive than the first two when they played in the semifinals at the Australian Open last year, in which Sinner got off to a rampant 6-1, 6-2 start. That match had 38 games over four sets.
The sands of time are well and truly against Djokovic if he's to win his 25th major and eighth at Wimbledon. With that in mind, the Serbian will be highly motivated, throwing everything, including the kitchen sink, at the silky smooth Sinner.
As long as Sinner's elbow holds strong, expect at least 39 games. Among our top sports betting apps, FanDuel, bet365, and BetMGM have a total set at 39.5, offering odds of -118, -120, and -125, respectively.
I've decided to opt for a buffer, taking Caesars' 38.5 games. BetMGM's odds for 38.5 games are -150, representing less value than Caesars' -130.
📺 How to watch Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic: Wimbledon 2025
📍 Date: Friday, July 11
🕘 Time: 8:30 a.m. ET (or later)
🏟️ Location: All England Club (London)
📡 How to watch: ESPN, ESPN+
💵 Best tennis betting sites
Want to bet on Wimbledon 2025? Check out the best sportsbook promos for this season's summer major:
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review
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