Japanese Grand Prix Predictions & Odds: Expert F1 Picks, Japanese GP Props, Odds for Suzuka Circuit
McLaren looks to make it three in a row to start the season in Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix from the Suzuka Circuit (1 a.m. ET, ESPN). Oscar Piastri enjoyed a superb victory in the Chinese Grand Prix, providing the momentum he'll require to make it two in a row.
Meanwhile, his teammate and F1 Championship odds front-runner Lando Norris is the favorite, making it three straight where he's sat atop the pre-race odds leaderboard at our best sports betting sites.
Like McLaren, we've started the season flawlessly, nailing our Australian and Chinese Grand Prix picks. Offering our Japanese Grand Prix odds and predictions, let's see if we can continue our immaculate record.
📈 Betting insights
Despite not winning either of the season's first two races, name value still carries some serious weight in the betting world. Max Verstappen leads the way with the highest number of tickets written (23%) and highest handle (27.5%) at BetMGM, with his odds moving from +450 to +200.
Lando Norris, the betting favorite in the season's third race as he looks to make it three wins in a row, is second in both catageories. Norris opened at +150 and is now +120, picking up 14.4% of all tickets for 20.7% of the handle.
Lewis Hamilton (+2500) rounds out the tickets, at 12.5%, while Japan's Yuki Tsunoda (+15000) is third in handle at 17.6%.
🥇2025 Japanese Grand Prix odds & favorites🥇
Japanese Grand Prix odds via FanDuel as of Thursday, April 3.
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +130 | 43.48% | $13 |
| Oscar Piastri | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Max Verstappen | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| George Russell | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1300 | 7.14% | $130 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +4200 | 2.33% | $420 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Liam Lawson | +14000 | 0.71% | $1400 |
| Carlos Sainz | +18000 | 0.55% | $1800 |
| Alex Albon | +18000 | 0.55% | $1800 |
| Isack Hadjar | +18000 | 0.55% | $1800 |
| Lance Stroll | +24000 | 0.41% | $2400 |
| Fernando Alonso | +24000 | 0.41% | $2400 |
| Pierre Gasly | +24000 | 0.41% | $2400 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +32000 | 0.31% | $3,200 |
| Esteban Ocon | +32000 | 0.31% | $3,200 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +42000 | 0.24% | $4,200 |
| Oliver Bearman | +42000 | 0.24% | $4,200 |
| Jack Doohan | +42000 | 0.24% | $4,200 |
🔢 Japanese Grand Prix odds movement
Updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, April 3.
- Norris' odds have shortened from +145 to +130
- Everyone else's odds remain unchanged
🌥️ Japanese Grand Prix weather update
Weather updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, April 3.
While there is a 40% chance of rain, only 1 mm of accumulation is expected if the sky opens up. That shouldn't be enough to impact proceedings significantly. The winds will be mild, blowing between 9 mph and 13 mph. The temperature will be about 63 degrees.
💰 Japanese Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets to win
🏆 Pick to win Japanese Grand Prix: Lando Norris (+160) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +160 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 38.46%
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Eventually, a driver from a team other than McLaren will win a race. While that might happen on Sunday in Japan, it doesn't seem likely given how dominant McLaren has been to kick off proceedings. Before the first race in Melbourne, I backed Norris in our F1 odds and predictions to win the Drivers Championship.
I feel even more confident after seeing Norris confidently control McLaren's new and improved MCL39. While Norris struggled to manage his tires around the high-grip circuit during the Chinese Grand Prix sprint session, he enjoyed a fairly smooth race day, finishing second behind Piastri.
Until I see one of the other teams overcome McLaren's clear advantage, Norris is the best bet. I'm not taking anything away from Piastri, but asking the Australian to win consecutive races for the first time feels aspirational.
💎 Best value bet to win Japanese Grand Prix: George Russell (+1400) ⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +1400 via Caesars | Implied probability: 6.67%
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If anyone not named Piastri or Norris is going to win this race, my money is on Russell. I backed him as a long shot at the Australian Grand Prix, and he represented my best value bet in China. He finished third in both races. Mercedes doesn't have the fastest car, but what it lacks in speed, Russell makes up for with his decisiveness, control, and experience.
He's thriving as Mercedes' go-to driver, no longer living in Lewis Hamilton's shadow. I wouldn't be surprised to see him dampen McLaren's winning parade. A winning $10 bet at Caesars would profit $140.
🎯 Best long shot to win Japanese Grand Prix: Yuki Tsunoda (+5000) ⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +5000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 1.96%
I reckon the +1200 odds for Hamilton are too short to be deemed a long shot, so I've altered tact, backing an undisputed outsider.
Tsunoda has been promoted to Red Bull for Sunday's race, replacing Liam Lawson, who returns to Racing Bulls. Tsunoda not only gets the dream opportunity of racing for Red Bull, but he also does so in his home country, with thousands of frenzied and passionate fans propelling him forward.
He knows the car pretty well from his time at Racing Bulls and started the first two races in fifth and ninth, respectively. DraftKings is offering an outlier +5000 price at our best sports betting sites, which would profit $500 if the improbable occurs.
💰 Best Japanese Grand Prix prop bet: Lando Norris fastest lap (+225) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
👉 Best odds: +225 via bet365 | Implied probability: 30.77%
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If Norris wins the race, chances are he'll also secure the fastest lap. He had the fastest lap in the first two races and won the 2024 DHL Fastest Lap Award, finishing as the quickest six times. If that's not enough, his car is the superior machine on the circuit. That might change soon, but until it does, give me the +225 odds at DraftKings.
🏆 Past Japanese Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the last 10 Japanese Grand Prix winners.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull RBPT |
| 2021 | Canceled | Covid-19 |
| 2020 | Canceled | Covid-19 |
| 2019 | 🇫🇮 Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (Then Mercedes) |
| 2017 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (Then Mercedes) |
| 2016 | 🇩🇪 Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (then Mercedes) |
| 2014 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Ferrari (then Mercedes) |
📈 Japanese Grand Prix trends & history
- Max Verstappen and Red Bull have won the Japanese Grand Prix three times in a row
- Mercedes won the previous six (Hamilton four times)
- It's been 21 years since Ferrari won at the Suzuka Circuit
- Norris and Piastri finished on the podium in 2023, the first time McLaren had two racers on the podium since 2003
- McLaren, Ferarri, and Red Bull are tied with the most Japanese Grand Prix victories (7)
- Suzuka’s figure-of-eight layout is unique for a Formula 1 circuit
- Michael Schumacher has six wins at the Suzuka circuit, the most
- Schumacher also has the most podiums (9) and pole positions (8)
- Hamilton won four times at the Japanese Grand Prix, tied for the second most with Sebastian Vettel
📺 How to watch the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix
📅 Race date: Sunday, April 6
🕒 Start time: 1 a.m. ET
📍 Track: Suzuka Circuit (Suzuka City, Mie Prefecture, Japan)
📺 TV: ESPN
Streaming: ESPN+
☀️ Weather: 66 degrees, 13 mph to 20 mph winds, 20% chance of precipitation
❓ Japanese Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Japanese Grand Prix?
Lando Norris, who won the Australian Grand Prix, is the +145 moneyline favorite.
What are the odds for the Japanese Grand Prix?
Lando Norris (+145), Oscar Piastri (+175), and Max Verstappen (+700) have the shortest odds to win the Japanese Grand Prix.
What time is the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix?
The Japanese Grand Prix starts at 1 a.m. ET on Sunday, April 6.
How to watch the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix
You can watch the Japanese Grand Prix on ESPN or ESPN+.
Who has won the most Japanese Grand Prix races?
Michael Schumacher has won the Japanese Grand Prix the most (6).
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