Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Super Lightweight Title

A rematch over two years in the making is finally here.

After duking it out in an instant classic back in April 2022, Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano will meet for a second time with the former’s super lightweight titles on the line in Arlington, Texas tonight. We’re covering the action with our Taylor vs. Serrano prediction.

This is the penultimate fight on Friday's fight card, which will be streamed on Netflix beginning at 8 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium. We break down the main event with our look at the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul odds. My Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul prediction calls for a slugfest.

Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano prediction & best bet

(Odds via our best boxing betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

• Fight prediction: Katie Taylor to win (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Katie Taylor by decision (+140 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Taylor and Serrano became the first women to headline Madison Square Garden in their first lightweight clash. Taylor won an instant classic with a razor-close split decision to preserve her status as undisputed champion.

Ireland’s Taylor has since won two of three and become women’s boxing’s undisputed super lightweight queen at Chantelle Cameron’s expense. Serrano has rebounded with five straight wins, including a quick TKO of Stevie Morgan scored this past July.

Serrano is a narrow favorite across our best boxing betting sites.

Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano fight analysis

Prediction: Katie Taylor to win

Best odds: +105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 48.8%

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This pair’s first clash proved forward pressure doesn’t always win fights, and I expect more of the same on Friday night.

For 10 rounds in April 2022, Serrano claimed the center, walked Taylor down, and worked behind her piston of a jab and straight left, while the latter stayed on her bicycle and scored with crisp punches in bunches. I

n other words, this dance pits a boxer-puncher against a technician, and the tape on both Serrano’s and Taylor’s subsequent bouts leaves little to suggest they won’t produce a replica of their 2022 barnburner.

With Serrano bringing pressure and slinging two-pieces aplenty from the southpaw stance as the right-handed Taylor looks for openings from the outside, Friday’s rematch will be decided by footwork. While Serrano has put many a woman on the back foot, she remains an inconsistent cage-cutter, meaning Taylor should enjoy enough space to make her reads and find a home for her mitts. In short, expect these two to regale us with another classic, and Taylor’s cleaner punching and edge in technical proficiency to prove the difference.

As of the wee small hours of Friday morning, our best sports betting sites have yet to reach a consensus on the matchup’s betting lines. While some books have the bout as a pick ’em, others have Taylor as an ever-so-slight underdog, with BetMGM edging DraftKings at +105 over +100 for an extra 50 cents in profit on a winning $10 wager.

Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano best bet

Prediction: Katie Taylor by decision

Best odds: +140 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 41.7%

While roughly two thirds of Serrano’s wins have come inside the distance, Taylor has gone to the judges in 18 of 24 career contests, and Friday’s rematch should make it 19. Much like their first dance, the Irish super lightweight queen will have to box with a puncher of Serrano’s caliber instead of going haymaker for haymaker, an approach that usually leads to the scorecards.

With all signs pointing to a repeat of the 2022 epic Taylor and Serrano staged, Friday’s tilt should see Taylor withstand a few zingers and outbox an ever-game Serrano for another hard-earned decision.

Taylor hasn’t won by stoppage in over five-and-a-half years, and that drought won’t end easily against a hard-hitting pressure fighter in Serrano. Naturally, the lines on a Taylor win by points offer slightly superior value to a straight-up win, and yet again, BetMGM leads our best sports betting apps with an 18th career decision victory for Taylor at +140.

Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano odds

Odds via BetMGM as of Friday

Taylor entered fight week a slight favorite, but the lines have shifted as fight night has drawn closer, as books like DraftKings and BetMGM have the undisputed super lightweight champ as the matchup’s underdog.

Since the judges’ participation will likely be required yet again, those thinking Serrano’s pressure and southpaw stylings were enough in 2022 can find decent value in a win on points at +160 with BetMGM, and given how this pair match up stylistically and how closely contested their first dance was, banking on a draw isn’t as crazy as its +1100 line might suggest (8.33% implied win probability).

Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano tale of the tape

Taylor vs. Serrano fight info

• Weight class: Super lightweight
• When: Friday, Nov. 15, 8 pm ET (main card)
• Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
• How to watch: Netflix
• Favorite: Serrano (-140 via BetMGM)

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