Kentucky Derby AI Predictions 2025: ChatGPT's Picks to Win, Finish Order & Best Bets

The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby takes place Saturday at Churchill Downs, and we’ve turned to ChatGPT for its Kentucky Derby AI predictions based on historical data, betting odds, and statistical trends.

We're breaking down our full AI predictions ahead of Saturday's post time of 6:57 p.m. ET (NBC), including the projected winner, best long shot, and full finishing order. These predictions should be viewed primarily as entertainment or an additional data point to help you break down the Kentucky Derby odds.

Here are our AI-generated Kentucky Derby predictions with morning-line odds courtesy of FanDuel Racing.

🏆 AI pick to win Kentucky Derby 2025

🏇 Prediction: Sovereignty (No. 18)

📊 Odds to win: 5-1

Sovereignty (5-1) brings the most explosive late kick in the field, with stretch-running power that few rivals can match. He showed that turn of foot with a dominant Fountain of Youth win and a huge move from last in the Florida Derby, closing into a slow pace to finish a close second.

His pedigree points to classic-distance stamina, and he’s consistently run the fastest final fractions in major preps. A fast, dry track and an honest early pace would give him the setup he needs to launch his run. With a clean trip, he looms as the most dangerous closer in the race.

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💰 Best Kentucky Derby long shot

🏇 Long shot: Tiztastic (No. 14)

📊 Odds to win: 20-1

Tiztastic (20-1) looks like the most dangerous long shot in the field. He enters off a strong win in the Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles, proving he can handle a route and finish with power. His pedigree is built for the Derby distance, and he’s shown consistent improvement with each start.

Positioned just behind the early speed, Tiztastic is likely to get first run on the deep closers. If the favorites falter or run into traffic, he has the tools to pull off a mild upset - and at 20-1, the value is hard to ignore.

👉 See our human-generated Kentucky Derby long-shot picks here.

📊 AI-simulated Kentucky Derby finishing order: Win, place, show predictions

Here’s how ChatGPT projects the full 20-horse field to finish in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, along with the Kentucky Derby odds from FanDuel Racing for each horse:

🏇 2025 Kentucky Derby horses & field analysis

Here is ChatGPT's field analysis of the 20 horses (plus one also-eligible) set to contest the 151st Kentucky Derby, listed in post position order:

1. Citizen Bull (20-1)

While Citizen Bull is not Baffert’s top gun this year, his back class (Breeders’ Cup win) and a possible rail-skimming trip make him an intriguing long shot. If he rebounds to his best form, he could hit the board. But off his recent efforts, he’s a mid-pack finisher at best – needing a big step up to win.

2. Neoequos (30-1)

Neoequos will be one of the longest shots in the field. On paper he looks overmatched – he’s yet to run a triple-digit Bris or a Beyer above ~89. To hit the superfecta, he’d need a scenario like 2022 (pace collapse) and a career-best effort. Most likely, he’ll be passing tiring rivals late and could finish mid-pack. If you like bomb closers for the bottom of exotics, Neoequos fits that profile.

3. Final Gambit (30-1)

Final Gambit’s chances hinge on handling dirt; if he does, on figures he’s not far off some contenders (his synthetic speed figs equate to a mid-90s Beyer). He’s a wild card – capable of clunking badly if he dislikes the kickback, or sneaking into the money if the race falls apart (he will stay the trip). The general sentiment is cautious: he’s a fringe player, but if you believe in his talent regardless of surface, you’ll get rewarded at 30-1.

4. Rodriguez (12-1)

Rodriguez profiles similarly to some past Derby winners who were winless in final preps but had strong form (i.e. Super Saver in 2010). He’s a legitimate contender to hit the board and even win if things break right – he’ll likely be in contention turning for home. The question is whether he has the finishing punch to actually win or if he’ll settle for another minor placing. At 12-1, he offers value as a battle-tested colt with tactical speed in a race often won by such horses.

5. American Promise (30-1)

American Promise seems a cut below the top 10 in this field on paper. He’s shown heart in lesser company but would need to improve significantly (best Beyer ~90) to crack the superfecta. If the pace is somehow very soft (unlikely), he could hang around longer than expected. Otherwise, he’s an outsider who might fade in the stretch.

6. Admire Daytona (30-1)

Admire Daytona has reportedly trained well at Churchill (his final breeze was a sharp 4f). If he runs to his UAE Derby effort, he’s in with a chance to hit the board, and he’s arguably the best Japanese contender a Derby has seen. Still, at 30-1, bettors are cautious due to the travel and historical trend. He is a true wild card who could finish top five if he adapts, or could flatten out if the long campaign and travel take a toll. Keep an eye during warm-ups: if he looks composed, it might pay to include him in exotics.

7. Luxor Cafe (15-1)

While not as heralded as Admire Daytona, Luxor Cafe could surprise. He’s 15-1 on the live international odds but 30-1 on the U.S. morning line, reflecting that insiders give him more credit. If the pace is hot, don’t be shocked if this gray colt is running on late. Still, a minor award seems more feasible than a win – he might be this year’s Master Fencer (who closed from 15th to sixth in 2019). For bettors, he’s another exotic piece at big odds with a plausible scenario to clunk into the superfecta.

8. Journalism (3-1)

Journalism carries a lot of expectation – he’s a fairly deserving favorite. To justify it, he’ll need to navigate a 20-horse field (much larger than the fields he’s beaten). The good news: his mid-pack style and post draw should keep him out of trouble. If he runs his race, every horse behind him will need a step forward to beat him. The only slight concern is that he’s had relatively easy trips so far – how will he respond if, say, he’s shuffled back or stuck in traffic? That said, bettors will likely make him 5-2 or so by post time on reputation.

9. Burnham Square (12-1)

Burnham Square has been a bit overlooked in chatter compared to flashy horses from other preps, but on achievement he’s right there. One minor note: he’s run hard races – that Blue Grass was a gut-buste​r. If he’s recovered fully, he’s a top-five contender. If it took a toll, it could flatten him. At 12-1, he’s the wiseguy horse for some, given his speed, heart, and improving figures. A very plausible win candidate if he gets a trip similar to Keeneland – he’s proven he can fight off challengers in a stretch duel.

10. Grande (20-1)

Grande has worked sharply at Churchill (a bullet 4f in 47⅗). He’s giving off signals of a live long shot. The knock is he hasn’t beaten this caliber yet – his Tampa rivals were weaker, and Florida Derby, while Grade 1, was won by a bomb. But he did beat some now here (Neoequos, etc.). If pace heats up, Grande is one of those who could pick up pieces. At 20-1, Todd Pletcher’s sole hope shouldn’t be overlooked – he’s a horse on the improve with big connections. Exotics players will include him in trifectas.

11. Flying Mohawk (30-1)

Flying Mohawk is the quintessential long shot closer to include in superfectas if you expect a meltdown. On paper, he’s overmatched – he’s essentially bringing synthetic form into America’s biggest dirt race. The last to try that was Animal Kingdom, who won the Derby in 201​1. That precedent gives a glimmer of hope. Most likely, though, Flying Mohawk will find the waters too deep and finish in the back half. A dream scenario: blazing fractions and a wet track (closers often like slop) could see him clunk up to the top five.

12. East Avenue (20-1)

East Avenue is a strong dark-horse win candidate. Many pundits see him as peaking at the right time and note how narrowly he lost to Burnham Square (who had a dream trip​). If pace is even a touch faster in Derby, East Avenue could turn the tables and then some. He’s the type of horse that could blow up the tote at 20-1, despite having the credentials. Bottom line: include him in all exotics. He’s consistent, bred for this, and has shown the will to win – traits that often produce a Derby upset or, at worst, a solid superfecta finish.

13. Publisher (30-1)

Publisher is overlay at 30-1; if you like Sandman at 6-1, consider Publisher not far behind him ability-wise (he was 2½ lengths back in Arkansas​). He could definitely hit the board and even steal the race if he turns the tables on Sandman (perhaps via saving more ground or Sandman facing pressure elsewhere). Many will use him in trifectas and exactas, as he should be right there at the top of the stretch. Whether he can outkick the closers in the final furlong for the win is the question.

14. Tiztastic (20-1)

Tiztastic is somewhat underbet at 20-1 morning line – quite a few analysts see him as a live contender. He’s beaten credible horses and his late speed figures (how fast he ran final 3/8) are among the best – indicating he finishes strongly, a crucial Derby factor. With a similar trip to his last, he’ll be coming in the stretch. He will need to outkick horses like Sovereignty and East Avenue, but he has one advantage: he might be a couple lengths ahead of those deep closers early, making their task harder. All told, Tiztastic is a major player who could absolutely win if things go right – he’s arguably the best value pick at 20-1.

15. Render Judgment (30-1)

Render Judgment frankly would be a shock even to hit the board – he’s an extreme long shot for a reason. He’s here on a prayer that an insanely fast pace and a perfect trip propel him into the top half. Barring that, expect him to finish in the back quarter of the field. It would take a total pace meltdown + career-best effort for Render Judgment to crack the top five.

16. Coal Battle (30-1)

If the pace melts and the fancy horses stub their toes, Coal Battle could rally by beaten horses. However, on raw ability he seems a notch below – for instance, Sandman beat him by 3+ lengths in Arkansa​s. He’d need to close that gap with a combination of a meltdown + step forward. At 30-1, he’s a deep long shot worth using underneath in supers if you envision a total pace collapse scenario.

17. Sandman (6-1)

Many see Sandman as the likely pacesetter or first presser – meaning if he stays the trip, he could be very tough to reel in. The question: will he face more pace pressure than he did in Arkansas? Possibly yes, from horses like Publisher or Citizen Bull. If he handles it, he might turn for home in front, and then it’s catch-me-if-you-can. Historically, a number of Derby winners had a profile like Sandman (good tactical speed, top last-prep performance). One concern – he’s the one who must buck post 17’s history. But records are made to be broken, and this horse has the credentials to do it.

18. Sovereignty (5-1)

Sovereignty is a major contender who will be flying late – whether he gets up in time will depend on pace and trip. Bettors who believe in his late kick will happily take 5-1 (not a bad price on a horse of his caliber). He adds intrigue as likely the one to threaten the leaders in deep stretch with that white bridle flashing on the outside. If they go :46 for the half, expect to see Sovereignty picking off horses down the lane, potentially writing the perfect ending for Bill Mott’s Derby quest.

19. Chunk of Gold (30-1)

Realistically, Chunk of Gold is an outsider likely finishing near the back. But his Louisiana Derby effort suggests that if a few collapse, he can pick up the pieces (as he did when others like East Avenue moved too soon and he picked up secon​d). Consider him a superfecta bomber if you believe a total pace collapse with multiple closers sweeping in late (he’d be one of the “closers behind the closers,” coming in late for maybe fourth). Otherwise, he’s a hard sell for anything more - he was soundly beaten by Tiztastic and others already.

20. Owen Almighty (30-1)

Owen Almighty is a mystery package: did he just beat up on weaker horses out west, or is he an improving colt ready to surprise? At 30-1, he’s worth a look in exotics – especially since he has early speed and could avoid the worst of the kickback. If he can slot in by the first turn in fifth or sixth one path off the rail, that’d be a win in itself. He’d then need to show he can duke it out with the likes of Journalism and company. Overall, he’s a long shot with some upside – not among the top fancies, but not impossible for a superfecta either.

21. Baeza (12-1)*

Baeza is a well-regarded colt – he won the UAE Derby jointly (dead-heating for first, hence 37.5 points instead of 100) and has shown talent on both turf and dirt in Europe. If he runs, he adds another high-quality closer to the mix and could be a wild card to hit the board. Otherwise, he’ll be re-routed to other goals.

🤖 How does AI predict the Kentucky Derby?

These Kentucky Derby AI predictions were generated using OpenAI’s most advanced large language model version of ChatGPT, which analyzes vast amounts of data to simulate realistic outcomes and identify betting value.

While not a traditional handicapping algorithm, the model draws from a wide range of publicly available information, including:

• Historical Derby results and finishing trends going back decades
• Performance in prep races like the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Blue Grass Stakes
• Speed figures and pace dynamics from Equibase and other industry sources
• Jockey and trainer statistics, including prior Derby success and win rates
• Post position trends, track biases, and how horses break from the gate at Churchill Downs
• Betting market shifts, early steam moves, and public sentiment
• Weather and track conditions, especially how certain horses have performed on fast or sloppy dirt

By analyzing these inputs through pattern recognition and probabilistic modeling, the AI generates a projected finishing order and flags horses that may offer betting value - whether it's the favorite or an overlooked long shot.

📺 How to watch the 2025 Kentucky Derby

📅 Saturday, May 3
🕕 6:57 p.m. ET
📍 Churchill Downs (Louisville, Ky.)
📺 NBC | 🛜 Peacock | 📲 NBC Sports App  

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