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Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds: Can Collier Stay Hot Against Favorite New York?

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: May 25, 2024 11:12 AM EDT • 3 min 15 sec read.

The New York Liberty visit the Minnesota Lynx at Target Center in Minneapolis on Saturday, and we have our best Liberty vs. Lynx prediction and expert picks based on the best WNBA odds.

The New York Liberty were the hottest team in the WNBA, rocking a perfect 4-0 start until a surprising upset loss to the Chicago Sky on Thursday. The Liberty are 6.5 favorites in an expected rebound when they visit the Minnesota Lynx at Target Center on Saturday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS.

New York remains the second favorite in the latest WNBA championship odds, just behind the two-time defending champions, the Las Vegas Aces.

The Lynx also experienced a setback, losing their perfect 2-0 start with an 83-82 overtime defeat to the Connecticut Sun on Thursday. Napheesa Collier's impressive performance, with 31 points and 11 rebounds, has bolstered her WNBA MVP odds.

Here are our best Liberty vs. Lynx predictions for Saturday (odds via our best sports betting apps; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Liberty vs. Lynx expert picks

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Liberty vs. Lynx predictions for Saturday

Lynx +6.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Life comes at you fast in the W, and the Liberty learned that the hard way Thursday with a stunning home loss. Rest may have played a role, as we laid out in our Sky vs. Liberty prediction. But it still felt like oddsmakers were far too dismissive of Chicago while laying such a big number on the reigning runners-up.

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That remains the case here, as this line feels disrespectful to the Lynx after what we've seen thus far. I ranked Minnesota fourth in my latest WNBA power rankings - just two spots behind New York - and I don't feel any differently after a one-point loss to the third-ranked Sun, who were down 13 at one point.

With the way that Collier and Alanna Smith are playing inside, this Lynx team is dangerous on any given day and can hold serve with New York's star-studded frontcourt. Give me the points on the home side, and I'd also be tempted to sprinkle a little on the moneyline (+230 via bet365).

Best odds: -110 via bet365

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Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

One of the benefits of betting on the WNBA as it transitions from a niche to mainstream market is that our best sportsbooks are often slow to catch up to the latest developments in the league. That seems to be the case with this prop.

Collier broke out in a significant way for the Lynx in 2023, nearly tripling her scoring average from 7.3 points per game to 21.5 en route to a fourth-place finish in MVP voting. She's taken another leap forward in 2024, averaging 26.7 points per outing while shooting a career-high 21.3 times.

The three-time All-Star scored 20 points in her season debut, and she's followed that with 29 and 31 in her last two games. She's attempted at least 19 shots in all three matchups, and Collier is getting to the line with intention while attacking the glass for easy putback opportunities.

None of that seems to have reached the desk of FanDuel, which is offering this low total at -102 odds. Those odds imply a 50.5% chance that Collier clears this total for a third consecutive game, and a profit of $9.80 would come on a $10 wager, per our odds converter.

Best odds: -102 via FanDuel

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Liberty vs. Lynx odds

DraftKingsFanDuelCaesarsbet365
New York Liberty-6.5 (-110)-6.5 (-108)-6.5 (-110)-6.5 (-110)
Minnesota Lynx+6.5 (-110)+6.5 (-112)+6.5 (-110)+6.5 (-110)

How to watch Liberty vs. Lynx

  • When: Saturday, May 25
  • Tip-off: 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: Target Center (Minneapolis)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Favorite: Liberty -6.5 (-108 via FanDuel)

Liberty-Lynx predictions made Friday at 2:15 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.