Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction: Game 3 Expert Picks & WNBA Finals Odds
With the WNBA Finals tied at 1-1, the series shifts to Minneapolis for Wednesday's Game 3 between the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx.
- The Liberty are favorites of 2.5 to 3.5 points across our best sportsbooks
- These teams split the first two games after Minnesota stole Game 1 on the road
- New York won Game 2 by 14 points and has led by 17 or more in both contests
Here is a look at our Lynx vs. Liberty prediction, expert picks, and WNBA odds for Game 3 of the WNBA Finals, which tips off from Target Center on Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Liberty vs. Lynx expert picks: Game 3
WNBA picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Liberty -2.5 (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 18.5 points (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jonquel Jones to lead all rebounders (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: Game 3
Liberty -2.5 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
On paper, it has been a close series to this point with the Lynx stealing Game 1 on the road before the Liberty bounced back in Game 2.
In reality, it hasn't been all that close. New York led by 11 points with 3:23 left in regulation of the series opener and had a win probability as high as 98.6% per ESPN, and it asserted its dominance Sunday in a 14-point win to settle the score.
The Liberty have led by 17-plus points in each of the first two games, and they've won the rebounding battle in both contests - a bellwether of success for this group across the regular season.
Even with the change in locale, I'm not sure I see this Lynx frontcourt winning that battle overnight with Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones attacking inside.
Neither do our best sportsbooks, which have New York favored across the board. Every shop is listing this game at -3 or shorter except for FanDuel, which is generously offering -2.5 at -112 odds as the clear market outlier.
Too many ways to win for New York
In Game 1, the Liberty featured four players with at least 17 points: the big three of Stewart (18), Jones (24), and Sabrina Ionescu (19) along with rookie Leonie Fiebich (17). It would have been enough if not for their defense collapsing down the stretch.
New York's star trio combined for 50 points in Game 2, but it was veteran Betnijah Laney-Hamilton - the only player besides A'ja Wilson to receive a vote for WNBA Defensive Player of the Year - who joined the scoring parade with 20 points to tie her season high.
I wouldn't expect that sort of effort again from Laney-Hamilton, who has battled injuries all year long, but it speaks to the incredible depth that has led New York to this point.
Let's not kid ourselves about the stakes here: when the series is tied, the winner of Game 3 has won the WNBA Finals 61.1% of the time. That includes last year, when the Liberty let Game 3 slip and ultimately lost the series.
New York has been the best team all season long, and it's enjoying contributions from across its rotation in pursuit of the franchise's first-ever title.
Whether it's at home, on the road road, or in outer space - I wouldn't bet against the Liberty in this one.
Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%
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Liberty vs. Lynx player props: Game 3
Our NEW player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any WNBA prop market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Sabrina Ionescu Over 18.5 points (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
We've bet on Ionescu twice in this series, falling victim to the hook in Game 1 before she blew her 1Q scoring total out of the water in a successful Game 2.
I'm going back to the well for Wednesday's contest, as it doesn't feel like the best sports betting apps have adjusted for Ionescu's aggressiveness in this series.
Yes, she only attempted nine shots for 15 points in Game 2, but that came after a record-setting 12-point first quarter that set the tone for her teammates to pick up the slack from there.
She took a season-high 26 shots in Game 1 for 19 points, which marked the fifth time she cleared this scoring total in her first seven starts this postseason.
The matchup between Ionescu and this Lynx backcourt is one of the best for New York to attack in this series, and that has clearly been an emphasis for coach Sandy Brondello.
In this pivotal spot, I like Ionescu's chances of clearing this total once again with the +100 odds via bet365 turning every winning $10 bet into a $10 profit.
Best odds: +100 via bet365 | Implied probability: 50%
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Jonquel Jones to lead all rebounders (+250) ⭐⭐⭐
If the Liberty want to win Game 3, they'll need to hyper-focus on one of their ingredients to success all season long: attacking the glass.
Jones has been a central figure to that mission, ranking sixth in rebounds per game (9.0) and rebound rate (17.4%) among regular starters while leading New York in both categories. And she's carried that strong play into her fourth WNBA Finals.
She led all players in rebounds in Game 1 (10) and Game 2 (nine), but the folks at DraftKings are skeptical of a repeat performance, pricing her behind Stewart (+170) and Collier (+250) ahead of Game 3.
Given the elevated scoring load for both Stewart and Collier, I suspect Jones will have plenty of chances to zero-in on the backboards and help us profit on these +250 odds, which could turn a $10 wager into a $25 profit.
Best odds: +250 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 28.57%
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Liberty vs. Lynx Game 3 odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -2.5 (-112) | -3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-105) | -3 (-110) | -3 (-110) |
| Lynx | +2.5 (-108) | +3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-115) | +3 (-110) | +3 (-110) |
Liberty vs. Lynx Game 3 info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 16
- Tip-off: 5 p.m. ET
- Where: Target Center (Minneapolis)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Liberty -3 (-110 via bet365)
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