Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction: Game 4 Expert Picks & WNBA Finals Odds
The New York Liberty are one win away from their first WNBA Finals championship in franchise history. They'll face a stiff test against the host Minnesota Lynx in Friday's Game 4, which tips off from Target Center at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
- The Liberty are favored between 2.5 to 3.5 points across our best sportsbooks
- New York took a 2-1 series lead on a Game 3 buzzer-beater from Sabrina Ionescu
- Minnesota needs a win Friday to force a winner-take-all Game 5 on Sunday
Here is a look at our Liberty vs. Lynx prediction, expert picks, and WNBA odds for Game 4 of the WNBA Finals:
Liberty vs. Lynx expert picks: Game 4
WNBA picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Under 159.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Breanna Stewart Over 35.5 pts + reb + ast (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Courtney Williams Under 12.5 points (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: Game 4
Under 159.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
We've laid the points with the Liberty in all three games in this series, and they rewarded us twice while blowing an 18-point lead in the only miss.
We cashed our Game 3 bet by a razor's edge when Sabrina Ionescu hit the shot heard 'round the world to deliver a 2-1 series lead for New York.
I think New York is the better team in this series, but Minnesota has punched back admirably and will have its back against the wall at home in an elimination spot.
That's why I'm targeting the total in a critical spot between arguably the two best defenses in the WNBA.
Liberty, Lynx defenses to show up in Game 4
This series has gotten progressively tighter on the defensive end, though it's been quite the battle since the opening tip.
The series opener ended as a 95-93 final, but the Liberty and Lynx combined for 168 points in regulation while shooting a collective 43.5% from the floor. (For context, that would rank eighth out of 12 teams as a full-season percentage.)
These teams have since fallen below 160 points in each of the last two games. They combined for just 146 points in Game 2, totaling 157 points in Game 3 with each team shooting worse from the floor than they did the game before.
The difference was a slight uptick in 3-point volume - reversing a series-long trend of a focus inside - and fewer turnovers by the Lynx, whose offense still fell apart late and scored just six points in the final six minutes to help the Liberty cap off a double-digit rally.
That sort of defensive effort is nothing new for New York, which ranked third in opponent efficiency (95.3) in the regular season and leads all teams in the postseason (100.7).
Minnesota's defense was even better on a per-possession basis in the regular season (94.8) and has shown its moments in the postseason, too. It'll need an A+ performance on Friday to avoid elimination at home.
With this total dropping as low as 158.5 across our best sportsbooks, I love the value on Under 159.5 at DraftKings, where a $10 bet will return $9.09 in profit if these teams combine for fewer than 160 points for the third consecutive game.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Liberty vs. Lynx player props: Game 4
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Breanna Stewart Over 35.5 pts + reb + ast (-105) ⭐⭐⭐
Clearly, I think this is going to be a low-scoring game. But do you really want to bet against Stewart right now, especially in such a pivotal spot?
Stewie put the team on her back on Wednesday, leading all players with 30 points and 11 rebounds - while adding an assist and four blocks for good measure - in an all-time performance for the two-time WNBA Finals MVP.
And, naturally, her focus was already on Game 4 in the minutes after that Game 3 performance:
She fell just short of this mark in Game 2, but I'd be surprised if we don't see the Liberty star shoulder the load as she did in Game 3 in what should be a physical affair.
If she does, these -105 odds from bet365 would return $9.52 in profit on a $10 wager.
Best odds: -105 via bet365 | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Courtney Williams Under 12.5 points (-104) ⭐⭐⭐
Remember when Williams was the star of Game 1, scoring 23 points to lead the Lynx's epic comeback and eventual overtime win?
It's been much tougher sledding since then for the diminutive guard, who scored 15 points in Game 2 and just 12 points in Game 3. The latter came on a worrisome 4-of-14 shooting (28.6%) - her second-worst mark in the postseason so far.
Part of the issue? It hasn't been easy finding room against Ionescu, who is playing at an elite defensive level even as she's hitting game-winners on the other end.
Williams has still found success as a playmaker, as she's led all players with eight assists in each of the last two games.
That feels like a more effective way for her to contribute on Friday in a must-win spot for Minnesota. That's why I'm fading her scoring total, which is dealing as short as -120 via bet365 with an implied probability of 54.55%.
These -104 odds via FanDuel are a much better value with a winning $10 bet returning $9.62 in profit.
Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%
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Liberty vs. Lynx Game 4 odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -3.5 (-108) | -2.5 (-112) | -3.5 (-105) | -3 (-110) | -3 (-110) |
| Lynx | +3.5 (-112) | +2.5 (-108) | +3.5 (-115) | +3 (-110) | +3 (-110) |
Liberty vs. Lynx Game 4 info
- When: Friday, Oct. 18
- Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Target Center (Minneapolis)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Liberty -3 (-110 via bet365)
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