Liberty vs. Mercury Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds, 8-26
After a surprise home loss on Saturday, the New York Liberty look to get back on track tonight at 10 p.m. ET (NBA TV) when they face the host Phoenix Mercury at Footprint Center, as we offer our best Liberty vs. Mercury prediction and expert picks.
The Liberty are favored by 5.5 points against the Mercury across our best sports betting sites, which also have them priced as the consensus title favorites. New York should be the superior team in the second leg of tonight's NBA TV doubleheader.
I made my Fever vs. Dream prediction for the night's opening matchup.
Liberty vs. Mercury expert picks
WNBA picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting sites.
- Liberty -5.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Breanna Stewart Over 8.5 rebounds (+104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jonquel Jones Over 23.5 pts + reb (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Liberty vs. Mercury prediction
Liberty -5.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Given the level of respect that our best sportsbooks have shown the Liberty recently, I was fully expecting this line to flirt with double digits.
Instead, much to my surprise, New York is laying even fewer points tonight than it was Saturday against the Connecticut Sun - a better team than the Mercury as evidenced by the latest WNBA championship odds.
Yes, the Liberty lost that matchup with the Sun, but they had won eight straight and 21 of their last 23 games before that. And it feels like we're catching a nice discounted price after the weekend defeat.
Which Mercury team shows up tonight?
One of those two losses for the Liberty came on June 18 against the Mercury in a game that featured a WNBA-record 33 made 3-pointers.
Phoenix has struggled to maintain any sort of consistency since then, posting an 8-7 record with a plus-1.1 net rating. New York, on the other hand, owns the WNBA's best record (13-2) and net rating (plus-13.7) since that point with 12 of those 13 wins coming by at least six points.
The Mercury have won consecutive games just once since that win in mid-June, and I wouldn't expect another upset when these teams meet tonight.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.
Best Liberty vs. Mercury player props
Breanna Stewart Over 8.5 rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Stewart isn't the most active rebounder these days, but she's still one of the league's most dominant on the boards when she wants to be.
The two-time MVP grabbed 15 rebounds in Saturday's loss to the Sun, which came four days after she had 12 boards against the Wings. Now she faces a diminutive Mercury lineup that ranks dead last in rebound rate (47.3%).
Here's the real kicker: all of our other best sportsbooks have this wager dealing at -115 odds or shorter, while these outlier +104 odds pay out $10.40 on a $10 bet.
Best odds: +104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.02%
New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $250 in Bonus Bets, if your bet wins. (within 72 hours).
Jonquel Jones Over 23.5 pts + reb ⭐⭐⭐
I'm doubling down on what I feel is the biggest mismatch of tonight's contest, though I'm taking a slightly different approach with Jones.
The former MVP ranks fifth in the WNBA in rebounds per game (9.4), but her rebounding total is dealing at a consensus 9.5 across our best sports betting apps. Instead, I like pairing it with her scoring prop for a combined total she's cleared in three of her last four games.
Jones had exactly 23 combined points and rebounds when these teams last played, and she finished with 27 in the meeting prior. She should be able to reach this mark once again in a favorable matchup.
Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%
Liberty vs. Mercury odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -5.5 (-115) | -6 (-106) | -5.5 (-115) | -6 (-110) | -5.5 (-115) |
| Mercury | +5.5 (-105) | +6 (-114) | +5.5 (-105) | +6 (-110) | +5.5 (-105) |
Liberty vs. Mercury game info
- When: Monday, Aug. 26
- Tip-off: 10 p.m. ET
- Where: Footprint Center (Phoenix)
- How to watch: NBA TV
- Favorite: Liberty -5.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
Liberty-Mercury predictions made Monday at 3:20 p.m. ET.
Here are our best sports betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
