Men's Olympic Basketball Predictions & Picks: Best Bets to Win Group, Stat Leaders, MVP
We've finally arrived on the doorstep of the 2024 Paris Olympics, and it shouldn't surprise anyone to see which team leads the latest Men's Olympic basketball odds across our best sports betting sites.
Team USA is the overwhelming favorite (-500) to win this summer's tournament, which officially begins Friday and lasts through the gold medal game on Saturday, Aug. 10. The Americans are prominently featured in our men's Olympic basketball predictions and picks, including a long-shot bet to win tournament MVP.
Who is predicted to win the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament?
(Men's Olympic basketball odds from our best sports betting apps as of July 24)
| Country | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| USA | -500 | 83.33% |
| Canada | +1100 | 8.33% |
| France | +1200 | 7.69% |
| Serbia | +1600 | 5.88% |
| Greece | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Germany | +3000 | 3.23% |
| Australia | +4000 | 2.44% |
| Spain | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Brazil | +10000 | 0.99% |
| South Sudan | +25000 | 0.40% |
| Puerto Rico | +30000 | 0.33% |
| Japan | +50000 | 0.20% |
Team USA has been the overwhelming favorite to win the men's basketball tournament in Paris 2024 since before the American roster was even announced.
Those odds have only shortened over time, even with a pair of close finishes in exhibition play, while Canada has emerged as the narrow second choice ahead of tournament host France. Don't forget about Serbia, which features the best player in the world and a wealth of international experience.
Best bet: Canada to medal (-113)
Look, if I had to pick one team to win it all, it's obviously Team USA. But I'm awfully intrigued by the long odds on Canada (+1100) to give its southern neighbo(u)r a run for its money in this tournament.
I'm even more compelled by this wager on the Canadians to medal in this tournament for the first time since 1936. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray leading a roster chock-full of NBA talent, this group poses issues for any non-American team on the perimeter and should find its way onto the podium.
Men's Olympic basketball expert picks
Prediction: France to win Group B (-188)
You have to lay a few extra bucks on this wager, which requires a bet of $18.80 to win $10 with a 65.28% implied probability. But I'm bullish on the tournament hosts making a statement early in this tournament.
It starts on the defensive end with Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama patrolling the paint, an even scarier proposition with the benefit of international rules. Wemby has already evolved into a premier scorer and is primed for the best two weeks of his basketball career.
The only real threat in this group is Germany, whose two best players - Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner - couldn't hit a shot over the final month of the NBA season. With home-court advantage on its side, expect France to roll to victory in the group stage.
Prediction: LeBron James to lead Team USA in assists (+180)
While James is the NBA's all-time leading scorer, he's always been a playmaker at heart. And he's surrounded by the best collection of talent we've ever seen.
The King paced Team USA in assists (3.6 APG) in five exhibition games, and he should have the ball in his hands as much as anyone on the roster in what will likely be his final Olympics. I'd expect Stephen Curry to be much more involved off the ball, providing James with every opportunity to stuff the stat sheet.
Prediction: Anthony Davis to win tournament MVP (+1000)
This is the biggest dart throw of my best bets, but I'm surprised to see The Brow catching such long odds to win MVP of this summer's tournament.
Yes, he's technically a reserve behind Joel Embiid, but Davis averaged more exhibition minutes (17.6) than Embiid (16.6) and is a better fit with Team USA's crunch-time lineup. His smooth offensive game and elite defensive prowess are a perfect fit for international play, which was on full display in exhibition games.
Davis is as short as +790 to lead the U.S. in scoring and favored to pace his team in rebounds and blocks, and he's as short as +600 to win MVP. That makes these +1000 odds - which carry a 9.09% implied probability - that much sweeter.
Past Olympic basketball results, medal history
| Olympics | Gold medal | Silver medal | Bronze medal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo 2020 | USA | France | Australia |
| Rio 2016 | USA | Serbia | Spain |
| London 2012 | USA | Spain | Russia |
| Beijing 2008 | USA | Spain | Argentina |
| Athens 2004 | Argentina | Italy | USA |
| Sydney 2000 | USA | France | Lithuania |
| Atlanta 1996 | USA | Yugoslavia | Lithuania |
| Barcelona 1992 | USA | Croatia | Lithuania |
| Seoul 1988 | Soviet Union | Yugoslavia | USA |
| Los Angeles 1984 | USA | Spain | Yugoslavia |
| Moscow 1980 | Yugoslavia | Italy | Soviet Union |
| Montreal 1976 | USA | Yugoslavia | Soviet Union |
| Munich 1972 | Soviet Union | USA | Cuba |
| Mexico 1968 | USA | Yugoslavia | Soviet Union |
| Tokyo 1964 | USA | Soviet Union | Brazil |
| Rome 1960 | USA | Soviet Union | Brazil |
| Melbourne 1956 | USA | Soviet Union | Uruguay |
| Helsinki 1952 | USA | Soviet Union | Uruguay |
| London 1948 | USA | France | Brazil |
| Berlin 1936 | USA | Canada | Mexico |
Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament FAQs
Who won the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament last time?
Team USA took home the gold medal in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, beating France in an 87-82 final. That win secured the fourth straight gold medal and seventh in the last eight Olympic Games for the Americans, who have won a record 16 gold medals across 20 men's basketball tournaments.
Who is predicted to win the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament?
Team USA is the favorite to win the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament in Paris, France, with odds as short as -650 across our best sportsbooks. Those odds represent an 86.67% chance that the U.S. will repeat as gold medalists.
When is the last time Team USA lost in the Olympics?
While the Americans lost one game in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, they've still captured the gold medal in fourth straight Olympic Games and seven of the last eight. The lone exception came at Athens 2004, when the U.S. settled for the bronze medal.
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