Skip to main content

Mercury vs. Aces Predictions, Picks & WNBA Odds: Las Vegas Begins Title Defense

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: May 14, 2024 5:13 PM EDT • 2 min 53 sec read.

On Tuesday, the Las Vegas Aces welcome the Phoenix Mercury to Michelob ULTRA Arena for the season opener. Our Mercury vs. Aces predictions based on the best WNBA odds will have you ready for the 10 p.m. ET tip off, aired on ESPN2.

The Las Vegas Aces enter the season as the undisputed favorites according to the WNBA championship odds, having clinched consecutive titles. Their pursuit of a historic three-peat begins in the season opener against the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday, airing at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

The Aces are a commanding 13.5-point favorite, across our best sports betting sites. Their dominant performance in the 2023 season, spearheaded by superstar A'ja Wilson and her formidable teammates, has firmly established them as a powerhouse in the league.

Wilson herself enters the season as the front-runner in the preseasonWNBA MVP odds, setting the stage for what promises to be a thrilling showdown on Tuesday night.

To accompany our Fever vs. Sun predictions and Liberty vs. Mystics predictions, here are our best Mercury vs. Aces predictions (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mercury vs. Aces expert picks

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Mercury vs. Aces predictions for Tuesday

Aces -13.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I get that our best sportsbooks can only offer a line so short on the first night of the WNBA season. But I'm rather surprised we aren't seeing a bigger spread between these two.

Last year, the Aces opened the year with a 41-point win over the Seattle Storm and finished the year with the WNBA's best record (34-6) and average scoring margin (plus-12.6) en route to a second straight title.

On the other end are the Mercury, who were outscored by 8.3 points per game and finished with a league-worst 9-31 record. Phoenix should rebound this year, but with Brittney Griner (foot) uncertain to play and the Mercury's depth still a major question, I could see this game getting out of hand by the third quarter.

Best odds: -110 via bet365

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose*

*Deposit required. Mobile app only. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Claim Now
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Aces Over 91.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

If you make only one bet on this season-opening matchup, I'd prefer the spread, but it's hard to ignore this gigantic mismatch on paper.

The Aces paced the league in offensive rating (114.8) last year with three players in the top 11 in scoring. The Mercury, on the other hand, finished dead last in defensive rating (109.9), and that weakness could be exacerbated Tuesday if Griner - one of the league's best defenders when healthy - is out or plays at less than 100%.

This is only a three-star play because of these -118 odds, which represent a 54.13% implied probability with an $8.47 profit on a $10 wager, per our odds converter. That isn't exactly a bargain, but it's still a bet worth making in this matchup.

Best odds: -118 via FanDuel

Bet $5, Win $250 in Bonus Bets

New customers only. Deposit min. $5. Place first bet of $5+ and win $250 in Bonus Bets, if your bet wins. (within 72 hours).

Claim $250
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Mercury vs. Aces info & odds

  • When: Tuesday, May 14
  • Tip-off: 10 p.m. ET
  • Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena (Las Vegas)
  • How to watch: ESPN2
  • Favorite: Aces -13.5 (-110 via bet365)
DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Aces-13.5 (-110)-13.5 (-114)-13.5 (-115)-13.5 (-110)-13.5 (-110)
Mercury+13.5 (-110)+13.5 (-106)+13.5 (-105)+13.5 (-110)+13.5 (-110)

Mercury-Aces predictions made Monday at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Tuesday's WNBA picks

Here are our best sports betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.