Mercury vs. Sun Picks, Odds & Predictions for WNBA Game Tonight

The Phoenix Mercury are massive favorites heading into tonight's game against the Connecticut Sun. Can they cover thanks to a productive Satou Sabally outing?

Rob Paul

Last Updated: June 18, 2025 4:05 PM EDT • 3 minute read

MERCURY VS SUN PREDICTIONS, PICKS & ODDS FOR WNBA GAME TONIGHT — Pictured: Phoenix Mercury forward Satou Sabally drives against Las Vegas Aces guard Aaliyah Nye. Photo by Candice Ward via Imagn Images

In the ascendency on the WNBA championship odds leaderboard, can the Phoenix Mercury cover the 14.5-point spread when they face the Connecticut Sun tonight at 7 p.m. ET (WNBA League Pass) from Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn.?

Our Mercury vs. Sun predictions expect a productive outing from Satou Sabally, who should be instrumental in another impressive Mercury display.

Mercury vs. Sun predictions

My Mercury vs. Sun best bet: Satou Sabally Over 20.5 points (+100 via BetMGM)

The Mercury's investments this past offseason are paying off in a big way with Phoenix sitting second in the Western Conference at 8-4 in Nate Tibbetts' debut as head coach. There are two obvious reasons why: Sabally and Alyssa Thomas.

With Thomas back at full health after missing five games, the Mercury's offense should be potent against the Sun with the five-time All-Star poised to consistently set up Sabally. The former No. 2 pick is fifth in the league in points per game (20.6) and has gone Over 20.5 in six outings this season, including two of her last three.

Sabally leads the W in usage rate (34.7%), ranks top 10 in PER (23.4), and top 20 in offensive win shares (0.7). Connecticut doesn't have a player on its roster equipped to slow down the two-time All-Star.

The Sun are last in the league in defensive rating (115.1) and allowing the most points per game (88.2), the highest field-goal percentage (47.3%), and the most free-throw attempts (23.1). Sabally's volume should help her hit this Over, with the even-money WNBA odds paying a $10 profit on a $10 winning bet.

Mercury vs. Sun same-game parlay (SGP)

Satou Sabally Over 20.5 points (+100)
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists (-135)
Mercury -14.5 (-110)

+395 via DraftKings

Thomas hasn't missed a beat since returning to the lineup for the Mercury. She continues to remind the league that she's among the best passers in WNBA history, and even at 33 years old, she leads the W in assists per game (9.0).

She's finished with double-digit assists in three straight games, and had the highest assist rate in the league (55%). If Thomas is handing out dimes and Sabally is putting up points, the Mercury should have no problem covering the spread. The Sun have lost six of their last eight games by double digits.

Mercury vs. Sun odds

Mercury vs. Sun live odds

View all WNBA odds

Mercury vs. Sun opening odds

Spread: Mercury -13.5 | Sun +13.5
Moneyline: Mercury -1100 | Sun +700
Over/Under: Over 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 (-110)

Mercury vs. Sun trend

The Mercury have covered as favorites in four of their last five games, including two straight.

How to watch Mercury vs. Sun

Location	Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, Conn.
Date	Wednesday, 6-18-2025
Tipoff	7 p.m. ET
TV	WNBA League Pass

Mercury vs. Sun updated betting insights

Updated betting info via BetMGM.

The Mercury opened at -13.5. That line increased to 14.5 points
The Mercury's moneyline odds have remained at -1100
The total opened at 156.5 and has since increased to 157.5

Mercury vs. Sun latest injuries

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Written by:
Rob Paul

Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.