Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul Prediction: Expert Pick & Odds for Tonight's Heavyweight Showdown
The wait is finally over: Jake Paul and Mike Tyson will step into the ring tonight at 8 p.m. ET on Netflix as we offer our Tyson vs. Paulprediction for this heavyweight clash in Arlington, Texas.
The younger fighter is a heavy favorite by the latest Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul odds to win this highly anticipated bout, which was originally scheduled for July 20 before Tyson suffered an ulcer flare-up that forced it to be postponed.
Now, we've finally reached the anticipated fight night between these two pugilists, who are 31 years apart in age but will square off in a professional bout sanctioned by the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulations.
While the fight will feature eight two-minute rounds (or less) with each donning 14-ounce gloves, it's still a legitimate heavyweight matchup with Paul dealing as a -210 favorite (67.74% implied win probability) across our best boxing betting sites.
Even though he's the heavy underdog, we expect Tyson to end this fight in a similar fashion to many of his career highlights with our Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul prop bets.
We also examined the other big fight on tonight's card with our Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano prediction.
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul prediction & best bet
(Odds via our best boxing betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Mike Tyson to win (+174 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Mike Tyson by KO/TKO/DQ (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight analysis
Prediction: Mike Tyson to win
Best odds: +174 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 36.5%
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Yes, youth, reach, and (most likely) cardio are all on Paul’s side, but in-ring savvy, technical proficiency, and killer instinct aren’t. That’s enough for me to side with a near-senior citizen.
Indeed, Tyson is undoubtedly the smarter fighter, and having largely faced shopworn MMA fighters and a couple of boxing scrubs, Paul will certainly be a little starstruck, if not terrified of “Iron Mike” - at least for a few rounds.
Paul, 27, has won all but one of his 11 career matchups, most of them opposite MMA veterans. The YouTube sensation most recently shared the ring with UFC alum and bare-knuckle bruiser Mike Perry on the original date he was to face Tyson, ultimately winning by sixth-round TKO.
As for Tyson, the heavyweight luminary enters his first professional fight in nearly 20 years, although he met Roy Jones Jr. in an eight-round exhibition in 2020. The Brooklyn native’s career slate sits at 50-6, with 44 victories coming within the distance.
Even at the ripe old age of 58, Tyson’s physical condition and knack for getting inside are to be commended, and don’t be surprised if he takes advantage of even a nanosecond’s hesitation from Paul, puts him on the back foot, and hits pay dirt with the peek-a-boo-style inside work that made him a terror when Reagan was president.
Granted, Tyson’s age will betray him after only a few rounds, but that will be all he’ll need should Paul show him the respect his resume commands.
Granted, I’ve picked against Paul and been burned before, but until he beats a career pugilist with some respectable (and recent) reps to his name, the YouTuber’s opposition will continue to get the nod.
Besides, the value on Tyson is most compelling, as our best sports betting sites all list the former heavyweight king above +170 as fight night approaches. Many pro fighters are also aligned with this opinion in our Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul expert picks.
FanDuel gets the nod ever so slightly as of early Thursday morning, offering an upset for “Iron Mike” at a tempting +174. That represents an implied win probability of 36.50%, according to our odds converter. Get the best odds via our FanDuel promo code.
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul best bet
Prediction: Tyson by KO/TKO/DQ
Best odds: +250 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 28.6%
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Given the event’s circumstances, parameters, and the track record of both fighters, this matchup should go one of two ways.
Either Tyson will overwhelm Paul early and hand the YouTuber the brutal comeuppance many have been pining for, or Paul will wait for the older Tyson to wear himself out before opening up and finishing the heavyweight legend in the middle rounds.
With Paul boasting seven knockouts in 10 career wins and Tyson 44 in 50, one of these men will be left counting the lights, and I expect that man to be Paul - and early.
Tyson enters the tilt as an underdog, so most every prop line offers solid value, a 45th career stoppage victory included.
While FanDuel leads the pack on a straight-up win for the former heavyweight king, our pick on a Tyson KO/TKO resides with DraftKings at +250 for a $25 profit on a winning $10 bet.
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul odds
Odds via DraftKings.
| Mike Tyson | Method of victory | Jake Paul |
|---|---|---|
| +170 | Win outright | -210 |
| +250 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +140 |
| +1000 | Win by unanimous decision | +280 |
| +800 | Draw | +800 |
DraftKings leads our best sports betting apps of choice for tonight's clash between Paul and Tyson, as its varied prop lines offer slightly superior value than competitors like FanDuel and BetMGM.
Those banking on Tyson to temporarily turn back the clock will have a grand old time choosing from various compelling lines, be it knockdowns or method of victory.
That said, it’s also worth noting the action on Paul is nothing to sneeze at, so if you’re thinking the younger boxer gets his hand raised, you’ll find respectable value on both a straight-up win and an eighth career KO/TKO.
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul tale of the tape
| Tyson | Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| 58 | Age | 27 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 224 | Weight | 225 |
| 71” | Reach | 76” |
| 50-6 | Record | 10-1 |
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight info
- Weight class: Heavyweight
- When: Friday, November 15, 8 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX, US
- How to watch: Netflix
- Favorite: Paul (-210 via DraftKings)
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul promo codes
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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