Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul Prop Bets & Predictions: Tonight's Best Picks
Jake Paul and Mike Tyson may be fighting under unusual parameters, but their date at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas tonight has still produced plenty of worthwhile prop betting lines.
The 27-year-old Paul faces a man 31 years his senior in a heavyweight matchup booked for eight two-minute rounds with 14-ounce gloves. Tonight's main card will begin at 8 p.m. ET on Netflix, with the co-main event expected to begin around 11:15 p.m.
We’re looking at tonight's action with our Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul prop bets as a complement to my Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul prediction.
Paul, a former YouTuber star, moves up in weight and enters the matchup with a 10-1 record compiled at the expense of unheralded boxers and various MMA veterans, while the 58-year-old Tyson competes in his first professional bout since 2005 and last shared a ring with Roy Jones Jr. for an eight-round exhibition in November 2020.
The heavyweight legend’s career record sits at 50-6, with 44 career wins coming via stoppage. However, the (much) younger Paul is the consensus favorite by the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul odds across our best boxing betting sites.
We took a look at what the fight game thinks about this event with our Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul expert picks, and we dove into the other big fight on the card with our Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano prediction.
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul prop bets
(Odds via our best boxing betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Winning method: Tyson via KO/TKO/DQ (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Knockdowns: Over 1.5 (+160 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Round betting: Under 5 rounds (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Don't miss my Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano prediction for the co-main event.
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul winning method
Prediction: Tyson by KO/TKO/DQ
Best odds: +250 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 28.6%
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Back when Tyson laced up the gloves with regularity, his preferred method of victory was the knockout, and even at 58, I like his chances of scoring a 45th career stoppage victory against a relative neophyte in Paul.
Not only has Paul faced questionable opposition over his 11 pro contests, he’s also yet to see his chin thoroughly tested. With Tyson boasting the edge in technical proficiency, I expect he’ll be the one to finally assess Paul’s durability - if only for a few rounds.
In short, look for Tyson to briefly revive the dynamo who struck fear in the hearts of men back in the 80s and early 90s, get Paul on the back foot, and put him down with some clever and brutal inside work.
While Tyson has gained a fair bit of ground on the betting lines during fight week, he remains this matchup’s underdog, and you’ll find excellent value on a KO/TKO upset for “Iron Mike” with several of our best sports betting sites. FanDuel and DraftKings lead the way at +250 on a stoppage win for Tyson, and those looking for a greater variety of prop lines will find just that with the latter
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul knockdowns
Prediction: Over 1.5
Best odds: +160 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 38.5%
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Should Tyson turn back the clock, I don’t see it lasting more than a few rounds, and should he fail to put Paul away, the latter will likely be the one earning the stoppage.
Whether he’s outmatched or even a little star-struck, the still-green Paul should hit the canvas at least once courtesy of a man who’s almost as terrifying at 58 as he was in his youth. If Paul impresses us all and withstands Tyson’s early onslaught, his five-inch edge in reach and superior cardio should be enough to get a fading Tyson down for the count, which would put their tilt’s total knockdowns over the 1.5 mark.
Given Paul’s and Tyson’s 70% and 88% knockout rates, respectively, the value on the Over for 1.5 knockdowns is understandably decent, but far from substantial. DraftKings offers +150 for Over 1.5 knockdowns as of early Friday morning, but it’s BetMGM leading the way at +160.
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul round betting
Prediction: Under 5 rounds
Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50.0%
Even if Tyson’s advanced age wasn’t a factor, the Under would still be the way to go for Friday’s date with Paul, as the former has earned nearly 40 career stoppages within five rounds, while five of the latter’s seven career finishes have come within three rounds. Furthermore, Tyson was finished in three of his last four professional bouts many moons ago, and if he doesn’t end Friday’s tilt early, Paul could treat the aging legend to a most cruel fate.
All this to say, the heavyweight pair shouldn’t need long to settle their clash, and Friday’s round props reflect as much.
FanDuel has both the Over and Under on 5.5 rounds at -112, while DraftKings lists the Under on 6.5 rounds at -120. But as with our knockdown prop, BetMGM gets the nod again. The book offers +100 for this matchup to end within five rounds.
Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight info
- Weight class: Heavyweight
- When: Friday, Nov. 15 at 8 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
- How to watch: Netflix
- Favorite: Paul (-190 via BetMGM)
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