2025 NASCAR AI Picks at Indianapolis for Today: ChatGPT's Full Predictions for Brickyard 400

After our NASCAR AI predictions cashed another outright ticket last week with Denny Hamlin winning in Dover, we'll look for another win today at 2 p.m. ET (TNT) in the 2025 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

We asked ChatGPT for its NASCAR at Indianapolis predictions based on historical data, betting odds, and statistical trends - including its pick to win, best prop bet, favorite long shot, and results for every driver for today's 39-car field.

Along with our 2025 Brickyard 400 predictions at Indianapolis, here are our AI-powered NASCAR best bets and full AI-simulated finishing order:

🏆 Best bet to win at Indianapolis

🏎️ Chase Briscoe

• Racing team: No. 19 (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
• Starting position: 1st
• Best odds: +850 via DraftKings ($10 to win $85)

✅ Why Chase Briscoe wins at Indianapolis

1. Emotional Momentum at Home
Briscoe is an Indiana native, and he recently stated that winning at Indianapolis would mean more than anything in his career. That emotional motivation can elevate performance at this special crown‑jewel event.

2. Pole Position & Qualifying Mastery
He became the first driver ever to win poles at the Daytona 500, Coca‑Cola 600, and Brickyard 400 in the same season - underscoring his speed and consistency under pressure. Starting from the pole at Indy is significant: five past winners have done so, the most of any starting position (17.8% win rate).

3. Strong JGR Program & Recent Form
Joe Gibbs Racing has five Brickyard wins in its history, behind only Hendrick Motorsports. Briscoe also enters the weekend off back‑to‑back runner‑ups at road/oval setups like Sonoma and Dover, showing he’s hitting his stride.

🔢 AI simulation for Chase Briscoe

• Projected finish: 1st
• Simulated odds to win: 18%
• Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 out of 5 stars)

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🎯 Best prop bet at Indianapolis

🏎️ Ty Gibbs

• Racing team: No. 54 (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
• Starting position: 5th
• Best odds: +300 via bet365 ($10 to win $30)

✅ Why Ty Gibbs finishes top-5 at Indianapolis

1. Excellent Form at High-Speed, Flat Tracks
Indianapolis favors drivers who can manage tire wear and throttle through long green runs - a style Gibbs has begun to master. His 2024 and early 2025 runs at similar tracks (like Pocono and Michigan) were among his best, and he enters Indy with clear upward trajectory.

2. Elite Equipment & Speed
Starting 5th in a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, Gibbs has top-tier horsepower and a team that knows how to win at this track. He’s part of the new generation that’s closing the gap on the veterans - and Indy’s layout benefits younger drivers with road-course precision and oval poise.

3. Low-Risk, High-Reward Betting Value
Gibbs isn’t being priced quite like the elites (Larson, Hamlin, Reddick), but he arguably has a top-6 car this weekend. The value here lies in getting plus odds for what my model views as a 36% probability finish in the top 5 - comfortably within his range based on speed and positioning.

🔢 AI simulation for Ty Gibbs

• Projected finish: 4th
• Simulated odds for top-5: 36%
• Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 out of 5 stars)

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🚀 Best long shot at Indianapolis

🏎️ Carson Hocevar

• Racing team: No. 77 (Spire Motorsports Chevrolet)
• Starting position: 8th
• Best odds: +3000 via Caesars ($10 to win $300)

✅ Why Carson Hocevar can win at Indianapolis

1. Consistently Fast at Flat Tracks with Momentum at Indy
Hocevar has quietly become a real factor on flatter layouts and intermediate ovals. In his limited Cup starts at Indianapolis and similar venues (Gateway, Pocono, even Loudon), he's shown the ability to stay clean and punch above his weight. His 8th-place starting spot this week is not a fluke - his speed in practice and qualifying backs it up.

2. Track Record of Running Clean, Especially on Strategy Days
The Brickyard often turns into a fuel-mileage and track-position chess match. Hocevar and the No. 77 team have outperformed expectations in such races, staying out of trouble and executing clean pit sequences. If attrition hits the mid-pack (as it often does at Indy), Hocevar’s path to victory becomes very real.

3. Chevy Speed & Underdog Confidence
He’s in a Spire Motorsports Chevrolet, which doesn’t carry the name-brand cachet but has had flashes of legitimate speed on these types of tracks - especially when Hocevar is behind the wheel. He’s outperforming the equipment more often than not, and he’s gotten stronger as the season progresses.

🔢 AI simulation for Carson Hocevar

• Projected finish: 29th
• Simulated odds to win: 2%
• Confidence rating: ⭐⭐ (2 out of 5 stars)

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🤖 NASCAR AI projections today

Here is our predicted 2025 Brickyard 400 finishing order and results for every driver based on AI projections. While ChatGPT is a large language model and not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, it can spot trends or insights that NASCAR bettors might overlook.

🏁 Projected finish order at Indianapolis

1. Chase Briscoe (No. 19, Joe Gibbs Racing) 🥇
2. Denny Hamlin (No. 11, Joe Gibbs Racing) 🥈
3. Kyle Larson (No. 5, Hendrick Motorsports) 🥉
4. Ty Gibbs (No. 54, Joe Gibbs Racing)
5. William Byron (No. 24, Hendrick Motorsports)
6. Joey Logano (No. 22, Team Penske)
7. Christopher Bell (No. 20, Joe Gibbs Racing)
8. Kyle Busch (No. 8, Richard Childress Racing)
9. Shane van Gisbergen (No. 88, Trackhouse Racing)
10. Chase Elliott (No. 9, Hendrick Motorsports)
11. A.J. Allmendinger (No. 16, Kaulig Racing)
12. Chris Buescher (No. 17, RFK Racing)
13. Erik Jones (No. 43, Legacy Motor Club)
14. Bubba Wallace (No. 23, 23XI Racing)
15. Noah Gragson (No. 4, Front Row Motorsports)
16. Brad Keselowski (No. 6, RFK Racing)
17. Tyler Reddick (No. 45, 23XI Racing)
18. Alex Bowman (No. 48, Hendrick Motorsports)
19. Austin Cindric (No. 2, Team Penske)
20. Justin Haley (No. 7, Spire Motorsports)
21. Michael McDowell (No. 71, Spire Motorsports)
22. Ty Dillon (No. 10, Kaulig Racing)
23. John Hunter Nemechek (No. 42, Legacy Motor Club)
24. Daniel Suarez (No. 99, Trackhouse Racing)
25. Josh Berry (No. 21, Wood Brothers Racing)
26. Riley Herbst (No. 35, 23XI Racing)
27. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (No. 47, Hyak Motorsports)
28. Ryan Preece (No. 60, RFK Racing)
29. Carson Hocevar (No. 77, Spire Motorsports)
30. Cole Custer (No. 41, Haas Factory Team)
31. Zane Smith (No. 38, Front Row Motorsports)
32. Todd Gilliland (No. 34, Front Row Motorsports)
33. Josh Bilicki (No. 66, Garage 66)
34. Ross Chastain (No. 1, Trackhouse Racing)
35. Austin Dillon (No. 3, Richard Childress Racing)
36. Ryan Blaney (No. 12, Team Penske)
37. Cody Ware (No. 51, Rick Ware Racing)
38. Jesse Love (No. 62, Beard Motorsports)
39. Katherine Legge (No. 78, Live Fast Motorsports)

💰 NASCAR AI picks for Indianapolis

💵 Best NASCAR betting sites

Want to bet on the 2025 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway? Check out the best sports betting sites for NASCAR ahead of today's race:

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