2025 Brickyard 400 Predictions at Indianapolis Today: NASCAR Odds, Expert Picks & Best Prop Bets

Our 2025 Brickyard 400 expert predictions for today's race at 2 p.m. ET (TNT) feature five drivers, including a best winner and most viable long-shot pick. 

While William Byron is the betting odds favorite to win the the race at our best sports betting sites, our focus is on Chris Buescher and Austin Cindric. 

📊 2025 Brickyard 400 odds & favorites at Indianapolis

Here are the latest Brickyard 400 odds and favorites at BetMGM for Sunday's race. Odds updated as of Sunday morning (July 27).

🥇 Brickyard 400 betting favorites 🥇

• William Byron, +450 ($10 to win $45), (odds shortened from +1000)
• Kyle Larson, +550 ($10 to win $55), (odds lengthened from +500)
• Denny Hamlin, +650 ($10 to win $65), (odds lengthened from +450)
• Chase Briscoe, +650 ($10 to win $65), (odds shortened from +1200)
• Tyler Reddick, +800 ($10 to win $80), (odds shortened from +1100)
• Ryan Blaney, +1000 ($10 to win $100), (odds lengthened from +625)
• Christopher Bell, +1300 ($10 to win $130), (odds lengthened from +1100)
• Chris Buescher, +1400 ($10 to win $140), (odds shortened from +1600)
• Ty Gibbs, +1400 ($10 to win $140), (odds shortened from +2500)
• Bubba Wallace, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
• Chase Elliott, +1600 ($10 to win $160), (odds lengthened from +900)
• Brad Keselowski, +1800 ($10 to win $180), (odds shortened from +2000)
• Carson Hocevar, +2500 ($10 to win $250), (odds shortened from +3000)
• Joey Logano, +3000 ($10 to win $300), (odds remain unchanged)

Claim our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on the Brickyard 400 or any other market!

🏁 Brickyard 400 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Indianapolis

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a sweeping 2.5-mile oval (or rounded rectangle) with mostly flat corners. The track’s 9.2-degree banking in the corners is mirrored by Turn 2 at Pocono, as is the size (2.5 miles). As a result, there is considerable correlation between the two tracks.

Early-race accidents marred last year’s race at Indianapolis, taking out many competitive cars - including Denny Hamlin, who led in average green-flag speed at Pocono before qualifying second and leading 21 laps early in Indy. Don’t expect as much chaos this year.

With how good the RFK Racing cars looked at Pocono – and all three of their drivers still needing a win – I’m enticed by the team’s long odds this weekend. That's why I predict Chris Buescher or Brad Keselowski will win the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis.

🏆 Pick to win Brickyard 400: Chris Buescher (+1600) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +1600 via Caesars ($10 to win $160)
🔢 Implied probability: 5.88%

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Buescher had a car capable of winning on outright pace at Pocono. He scored a solid fourth-place finish after ranking second in average green-flag speed, which was good for a nice points day and the second-best driver rating (120.4).

The market is not giving the RFK Racing cars enough respect. The only driver with better green-flag speed than Buescher at Pocono is Denny Hamlin, who is trading at +450 to win at Indy. There is a sizeable chunk of drivers between the two, but I would price Buescher closer to the +900 range.

Game theory wise, Buscher is in a tricky position. He can probably get into the playoffs on points, which could lead to some stage-oriented strategy calls that reduce his odds of winning. Still, Buescher has said repeatedly he feels he needs a win to get in, and I like this price too much to ignore.

💎 Best value bet to win Brickyard 400: Brad Keselowski (+2250) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +2250 via Hard Rock Bet ($10 to win $225)
🔢 Implied probability: 4.26%

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If you can’t use Hard Rock Bet, not to worry - Keselowski is +2200 at DraftKings. While the veteran owner-driver wasn’t quite a quick as his teammate at Pocono, he still ranked fourth by average green-flag speed, and he had a shot to win but for an unfortunately timed caution.

Keselowski led the third-most laps at Pocono this year, which helped him score the fifth-best driver rating (104.4). But like Buescher, the books are pricing him like a total long shot, which doesn’t seem fair. Keselowski managed to lead 35 laps here last year and nearly won the race but for an unfortunately timed caution.

Are you starting to see a pattern?

Keselowski and the No. 6 Ford team need a win to get in the playoffs. They had such a slow start to the year that they all know there is no way to the postseason on points alone. Look for Keselowski to make another contrarian strategy call to get out front – and to have the pace to hold onto the lead. Let’s just hope for no more cautions.

🎯 Best long shot to win Brickyard 400: Austin Cindric (+6000) ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +6000 via FanDuel ($10 to win $600)
🔢 Implied probability: 1.64%

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It was a close choice between Cindric and John Hunter Nemechek (+7500 via FanDuel) for this spot, but Cindric gets it due to the off-market number and higher-quality equipment. Cindric is a far shorter +3500 to win this race at DraftKings. Lock in the +6000 to secure a $600 profit on a $10 bet.

The logic for this pick is pretty simple: Cindric had pace and Pocono this year and at Indianapolis last year. He ranked eighth by average green flag speed at Pocono and finished 10th. He finished seventh here last year after working his way up from 38th.

Getting a Team Penske driver with a win already this year at +6000 is just too kind. Thank you, FanDuel.

💰 Best NASCAR prop bets & picks at Indianapolis

After getting a ton of value on Buescher and Nemechek for Pocono, the same opportunities aren’t presenting themselves at Indianapolis. We’re going to put our money on Alex Bowman to score a top 10 as well as a much longer-shot bet.

🔥 Best prop bet for Brickyard 400: Alex Bowman top 10 (+200) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +200 via Hard Rock Bet ($10 to win $20)
🔢 Implied probability: 33.33%

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What a misprice. Bowman is +135 to +140 to score a top 10 at most sportsbooks. ESPN BET is hanging an off-market +175, but the +200 at Hard Rock Bet is just unforgivable. Bowman, like Buescher, needs to point his way into the playoffs, so top 10s matter a lot more for him than for other drivers.

Bowman showed sufficient pace at Pocono, ranking ninth by average green-flag speed and finishing 11th. He doesn’t have any results to write home about in the Cup Series here at Indianapolis, but his average finish at Pocono (12.3) and pair of 11th-place results suggest that he is a positive regression candidate here at Indy.

We’re getting a Hendrick Motorsports car at +200 odds just to fiinish in the top 10, offering us a chance to triple our money. Let’s lock this in and hope Bowman the Showman can get the most out of his car on Sunday – he has 11 top 10s in 21 races this season.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Brickyard 400: Riley Herbst top 10 (+2000) ⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +2000 via Caesars ($10 to win $200)
🔢 Implied probability: 4.76%

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Herbst is having a terrible, no good, very bad rookie season. He has zero top 10s in 21 starts for the same team that Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick have combined to score 15 top 10s with this season. But with Herbst now at +2000 – implying a mere 4.7% chance - for a top 10, we just have to pounce.

Herbst won at this track in the Xfinity Series just last year, and he did so dominantly. He started second and led 30 of the 100 laps, edging out teammate Cole Custer for the win. He’s a long shot for a reason, but since 10 of 39 drivers have to finish inside the top 10, we’re getting a ton of value versus raw probability (25.6%).

📈 Brickyard 400 trends & Indianapolis Motor Speedway history

Here are a few Brickyard 400 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

🏎️ Big names bring it home. The last 10 winners of the Brickyard 400 all drove for what was a top-tier team at that point – although a few guys, like Kasey Kahne and Ryan Newman, were surprise winners from that big-name team. The last big upset to happen here came in 2011 with Paul Menard taking the checkered flag on a fuel strategy.

🏎️ Starting up front matters. Aside from Kahne’s double-overtime upset in 2017, the last nine winners at the Brickyard started in the first six rows, with three of those winners – Kevin Harvick (2019), Kyle Busch (2016), and Ryan Newman (2013) – starting on the pole.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Indianapolis

We cashed a bunch of plus-money props (including Nemechek for a top 10 at +1000!) at the last flat intermediate in Pocono. Here are my strategy tips for handicapping these types of tracks:

• Watch (and pay attention to) qualifying. Since the NextGen Era began in 2022, Pocono has rewarded drivers who can qualify well. Last year, every driver in the top six started in the top 10. Two years ago, every driver in the top six started in the top 11. In the one Indianapolis race with this car, the top three all started in the top seven; polesitter Tyler Reddick finished second.
• Don’t forget about pit strategy. As a massive 2.5-mile track, it’s easier to take risks on pit road since there is less risk of going a lap down. Strategy has helped guys like Paul Menard and Kasey Kahne score wins here before, and it almost helped Brad Keselowski win here last season.

🏆 Past Indianapolis Motor Speedway winners

Here is a look at the last 10 winners at Indianapolis Motor Speedway entering Sunday's race. From 2021 to 2023, the NASCAR Cup Series raced at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, not the oval, so those races are excluded.

📺 How to watch the 2025 Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis

📅 Race date: Sunday, July 27, 2025
🕒 Start time: 2 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Indianapolis Motor Speedway (Speedway, Ind.)
📺 TV: TNT | Streaming: HBO Max

❓ Brickyard 400 FAQs

Who is favored to win the Brickyard 400?

William Byron (+450) is the favorite to win the 2025 Brickyard 400. A $10 bet would yield a $45 return on this wager with implied probability of 18.2%.

What are the odds for the Brickyard 400?

William Byron (+450), Kyle Larson (+550), and Denny Hamlin (+650) are the three favorites at BetMGM to win the Brickyard 400. 

What time is the 2025 Brickyard 400?

The 2025 Brickyard 400 starts at 2 p.m. ET (TNT) on Sunday, July 27, from Indianapolis.

How to watch the 2025 Brickyard 400

You can watch the Brickyard 400 on TNT or stream it via HBO Max.

Who won the Brickyard 400 last year?

Kyle Larson won last year’s Brickyard 400 after opening at odds of +600 and improving to +550 by raceday.

💵 Best NASCAR betting sites

Want to bet on the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway? Check out the best sports betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the race this weekend:

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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