2025 Daytona 500 Predictions: Our Best Bets & Expert Picks to Win Sunday's NASCAR Opener
The NASCAR season is finally upon us as we offer our 2025 Daytona 500 predictions and expert picks for Sunday's Great American Race at 1:30 p.m. ET (FOX).
Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney are the betting favorites by the latest Daytona 500 odds to win this prestigious race for the first time at Daytona International Speedway (Daytona Beach, Fla.), but we're targeting a former winner with our best bets entering Sunday.
2025 Daytona 500 odds & favorites
Here are the latest Daytona 500 odds and favorites at BetMGM entering Friday's practice. We broke down the full betting lines for this race in our 2025 Daytona 500 odds analysis.
🥇 Daytona 500 betting favorites 🥇
- Kyle Busch, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Ryan Blaney, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Joey Logano, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
- Brad Keselowski, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
- Denny Hamlin, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
- Kyle Larson, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
- William Byron, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
- Chase Elliott, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
- Chris Buescher, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
- Austin Cindric, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
- Bubba Wallace, +2200 ($10 to win $2200)
- Christopher Bell, +2200 ($10 to win $2200)
- Chase Briscoe, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
- Todd Gilliland, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
Daytona 500 predictions, expert picks & best bets to win race
When it comes to betting on the Daytona 500, there are two types of drivers who tend to fare best: the aggressive drivers and the experienced drivers.
Given the unpredictable nature of this track, I'm targeting drivers who excel in drafting and late-race strategy. That's why I'm backing one of the most seasoned (and assertive) competitors in the entire field as I predict Joey Logano will win the Daytona 500:
🏆 Pick to win Daytona 500: Joey Logano (+1400 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Let's be real: this race is going to come down to who gets the best restart in the final few laps fter an inevitable late caution. And I trust Logano, a three-time champion and former Daytona 500 winner, to navigate the pack as well as anyone.
Logano was my pick in my Daytona Duels predictions, and he was running near the front of the pack for nearly all 60 laps before slipping to fifth around the final turn. He'll start 10th on Sunday, and his Team Penske teammates - Austin Cindric (second) and Ryan Blaney (16th) - should prove valuable as drafting partners on Sunday.
That should be enough for Logano, who won this race from the fifth spot back in 2015 and has since finished in the top six in five of his nine tries while wrecking out in three of the other four races. That's the risk betting on an aggressive driver at Daytona, but it's also the reward when he reaches Victory Lane, something most have never done here.
Call me crazy, but I think the reigning Cup Series champion still has something to prove after three months of hearing how he was an illegitimate victor last year - a preposterous claim, by the way, for someone who already had two trophies on his mantle before his gutsy run through last year's postseason. I expect him to be gunning for a win on Sunday.
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💎 Best value bet to win Daytona 500: Austin Cindric (+2500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Speaking of Team Penske, it was just three years that a rookie Cindric won his first career Cup Series race in the Daytona 500. He was running in the top five after Stage 2 each of the last two years, and he posted the second-fastest qualifying time on Wednesday before winning the second Duel on Thursday.
So why is he dealing at such long odds to win again on Sunday? With one of the fastest cars in the field and two reliable teammates in Logano and Blaney - two of the best pack racing drivers in the entire field - I love Cindric's chances of cashing another mispriced line at Caesars, which would turn a winning $10 bet into a $250 profit.
🎯 Best long shot to win Daytona 500: Erik Jones (+5000 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
It would be easy to dismiss Jones' impressive showing in the Daytona Duels, when he held his own for 150 laps and nearly stole the checkered flag with a daring move on the last lap to finish mere inches away from victory. (He would have won, too, if not for an ill-timed caution around Turn 4 that preemptively ended the race.)
Yet the 28-year-old driver has a history of surprising in the opener, finishing third back in 2019 and posting an eighth-place finish last year. Legacy Motor Club has one combined win in 108 races, which is why a $10 wager at bet365 would return a $500 profit, but he has the savvy to find the right line and dance partners on Sunday. Don't count him out.
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Best Daytona 500 prop bets & picks
We'll be offering all of our best Daytona 500 prop bets on Saturday ahead of the final practice, but I've already placed one wager myself that was too good to resist.
💰 Best prop bet for Daytona 500: Team Penske to win (+450 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cindric's win three years ago is the only win for Team Penske since Logano's victory back in 2015. But I love the value on these +450 odds on another trip to Victory Lane.
Penske features three of the best drivers in the field in Logano, Blaney, and Cindric, who all feature odds of +2000 or shorter across our best sportsbooks. Logano and Blaney, in particular, have been two of the sport's best in drafting races over the last few seasons, while Cindric has been the team's most successful at this track in recent years.
These odds imply a mere 18.18% chance that any one of those three take the checkered flag on Sunday. Given how fast Penske cars looked in qualifying, I'll take that any day.
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💡 How to bet on the Daytona 500
The Daytona 500 is not only the most popular race of the year but also the most treacherous, as drivers compete in a spectacle known for its high speeds and big crashes.
That can lead to some unpredictable results as the "big one" takes out multiple competitors seemingly every year. Other drivers can exceed expectations by taking advantage of the pack racing nature of this superspeedway race, riding the momentum from the field before pulling away late.
That's why long shots tend to do so well at this race with three of the last four winners opening with +3300 odds or longer to win the Great American Race. We'd recommend betting smaller amounts and targeting a handful of drivers to avoid staking too much on any one competitor and stay invested through the end of the race.
You also don't need to limit your wagering to before the race. The winner of the Daytona 500 is often determined by a late restart or overtime, which can make live betting even more profitable if you can identify which 5-10 drivers have a shot heading into the final few laps. Don't be afraid to bet on a surprise leader during the race - you never know when the next wreck or caution could flip the field and reset the entire race strategy.
🏆 Past Daytona 500 winners
Here is a look at the last 10 Daytona 500 winners entering Sunday's 67th edition.
| Year | Driver | Team | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 2023 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | JTG Daugherty Racing | Chevrolet |
| 2022 | Austin Cindric | Team Penske | Ford |
| 2021 | Michael McDowell | Front Row Motorsports | Ford |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2019 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2018 | Austin Dillon | Richard Childress Racing | Chevrolet |
| 2017 | Kurt Busch | Stewart-Haas Racing | Ford |
| 2016 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2015 | Joey Logano | Team Penske | Ford |
📈 Daytona 500 trends & history
Here are a few Daytona 500 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race:
🏎️ Chevrolet has won the Daytona 500 more than any other manufacturer (26), leading Ford (17) and Toyota (three) entering Sunday. Hendrick Motorsports' nine wins are tied for the most all time after winning last year's race.
🏎️ The pole-sitter has won nine times at Daytona (13.64%), the best for any starting position. The No. 2 and No. 4 spot have each won seven times (10.61%), while the No. 7 and No. 9 spots have produced five wins apiece (7.58%).
🏎️ Only five reigning NASCAR Cup Series champions have won the Daytona 500 the following year and none since Dale Jarrett (2000).
🏎️ Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers in career wins (three) and laps led (490) in the Daytona 500 - the latter ranking fifth all time in NASCAR history.
🏎️ Each of the last five winners started outside the top 10 in the starting grid, while seven of the last 10 winners started 10th or worse.
📺 How to watch the 2025 Daytona 500
📅 Race date: Sunday, Feb. 16, 2025
🕒 Start time: 1:30 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Daytona International Speedway (Daytona Beach, FL)
📺 TV: FOX | Streaming: FOX Sports App, FuboTV, YouTube TV
❓ Daytona 500 FAQs
Who is favored to win the Daytona 500?
Kyle Busch is the betting favorite to win the Daytona 500 with +1200 odds, which would turn a $10 bet into a $120 profit. Those odds imply a 7.69% chance that Busch wins the Great American Race for the first time in his career.
What are the odds for the Daytona 500?
The latest Daytona 500 odds have Kyle Busch among the favorites to win the race alongside fellow contenders Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin.
What time is the 2025 Daytona 500?
The 2025 Daytona 500 starts at 1:30 p.m. ET (FOX) on Sunday, Feb. 16 from Daytona Beach, Fla. The original start time of 2:30 p.m. ET was pushed up due to weather.
How to watch the 2025 Daytona 500
You can watch the Daytona 500 on FOX or stream it via DIRECTV, Hulu, fuboTV, or YouTube TV.
Who has won the most Daytona 500s?
Richard Petty won the Daytona 500 seven times, which remains the all-time record. Denny Hamlin's three wins are the most by any active driver.
🏁 Best NASCAR betting sites for Daytona 500
Looking to bet on the Daytona 500? Here are our top-rated NASCAR best sports betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of Sunday's race at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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