2025 Goodyear 400 Predictions at Darlington: Best NASCAR Odds, Prop Bets & Expert Picks Today
After Denny Hamlin's commanding victory at Martinsville, the NASCAR Cup Series shifts gears to Darlington Raceway for Sunday's Goodyear 400. With throwback weekend in full swing, we break down our Goodyear 400 predictions and odds ahead of the green flag at 3 p.m. ET on FS1.
📈 Goodyear 400 betting action
According to BetMGM, Kyle Larson (+500) has the highest ticket percentage (7.3%), followed by Joey Logano (6.3%) and William Byron (6.2%). Larson also has the highest handle percentage (9.24%), with Logano (9.19%) and Denny Hamlin (8.9%) trailing him.
📊 2025 Goodyear 400 odds & favorites at Darlington
Here are the latest Goodyear 400 odds and favorites to win at Darlington via BetMGM ahead of Sunday's race.
🥇 Goodyear 400 betting favorites 🥇
- Kyle Larson, +500 ($10 to win $50)
- William Byron, +500 ($10 to win $50)
- Ryan Blaney, +600 ($10 to win $60)
- Tyler Reddick, +700 ($10 to win $70)
- Denny Hamlin, +800 ($10 to win $80)
- Kyle Busch, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Chase Briscoe, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
- Christopher Bell, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
- Brad Keselowski, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
- Bubba Wallace, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
- Ryan Preece, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
- Josh Berry, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
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🏁 Goodyear 400 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Darlington
Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped, or oblong, 1.3-mile oval. While it technically falls into the broad “intermediate” bucket, it’s far more similar to lower-speed tracks like Homestead or Nashville - ones that punish a driver’s tires - than higher-speed venues like Texas or Charlotte.
The coarse track surface at Darlington rewards drivers who can manage their tires well. It also rewards drivers who can run the high line efficiently. The proximity to the wall with which most drivers must run often scuffs up the passenger side of drivers’ cars, creating the eponymous “Darlington stripe.”
With a great comparator race to use at Homestead just a few weeks ago, we’re going with the dominant driver in that event to win Sunday's race at Darlington.
🏆 Pick to win Goodyear 400: Ryan Blaney (+800 via ESPNBET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Although a $10 bet on Blaney to win will only return $80 at ESPN BET, after what we saw from the No. 12 Ford at Homestead, it’s hard to justify leaving him off the card. Blaney led 124 of 267 laps in that event, and he even got out to a nine-second lead in the first stage of the race. Unfortunately for him, trouble on pit road and a blown engine cost him a shot at the win.
Blaney finished last in both Darlington races last year. He found himself in the wall early, twice, both times thanks to Martin Truex Jr. His best finish here is an unimpressive eighth, and his best finish here in the Xfinity Series is an equally unimpressive third. So why are we leaning so heavily on Homestead?
While Homestead isn’t a one-to-one comparator for Darlington, it’s the speed we saw from Team Penske (and affiliate Wood Brothers Racing) at Las Vegas that moves the needle for me. After years of underperformance on high-speed intermediates, all three of Blaney’s teammates were top seven by average green flag speed. He has the skill to win here and should have the speed, too.
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💎 Best value bet to win Goodyear 400: Alex Bowman (+3500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Our best sportsbooks love to sleep on Bowman. While the pilot of the No. 48 Chevrolet isn’t the best driver on his team - that honor belongs to Kyle Larson (+500) - he deserves much shorter odds. His other teammates, William Byron (+900) and Chase Elliott (+2100), are getting a lot more respect at FanDuel.
Like Blaney, Bowman looked impressive at Homestead. He nearly held on to edge out Larson for the win, leading 43 laps in the process. He and his teammates also looked impressive in Las Vegas, as Bowman led two laps and all four Hendrick drivers scored top-10 results. He also ranked top 10 in average green flag speed in both events.
Bowman’s resume at Darlington isn’t very impressive since joining Hendrick in 2018, scoring a lone top-five result in 12 attempts, but that isn’t without another three top-10s. It’s his run here in May 2020 - in which he led 41 laps, scored top-threes in both stages, and finished second - that makes me believe he can actually win this race. I’ll gladly take a potential $350 return on a $10 bet.
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🎯 Best long shot to win Goodyear 400: Noah Gragson (+10000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Do you believe in miracles? Last year, Chase Briscoe won here in the fall at odds of +4500. In 2022, Erik Jones came in at +8500 in the fall. There is a long history of long shots and underdogs winning here - just look at Regan Smith’s stunning win for Furniture Row Racing in 2011 or Ricky Craven’s razor-thin win in 2003.
Just as Darlington chews up tires, so too does it chew up race cars. The fastest cars in the field often do not finish the race. That often opens up opportunities for guys in underfunded equipment, either by narrowing the field or creating opportunities for a late-race restart, which is why we’re targeting Gragson on Sunday.
Unlike Blaney or Bowman, Gragson has found victory lane here ... just not in the Cup Series yet. Over eight Xfinity Series starts at the Lady in Black, Gragson has two wins, five top-fives, and seven top-10s. He led 40-plus laps in five of those starts. Don’t be surprised if he cashes at +10000 this weekend. That’s a $1,000 return from a $10 bet.
💰 Best Goodyear 400 prop bets & picks at Darlington
We’re targeting some of the aforementioned drivers for our Goodyear 400 prop bets at Darlington. While big-name favorites are usually not great bets on the top-10 markets, as they often have odds far shorter than -150 (60%) in fields of 36 to 40 cars, that isn’t the case for the two drivers we’ll discuss below.
🔥 Best prop bet for Goodyear 400: Alex Bowman top-10 finish (+140 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
While I think hanging a +3500 for Bowman to win outright is disrespectful, hanging a +140 for him to simply score a top-10 result is laughable. He is a far more appropriate -130 at BetMGM and -120 at DraftKings.
Bowman’s less aggressive driving style doesn’t lend itself to a ton of wins, but it does lend itself to top-10 finishes, which is why these odds are so ridiculous. Bowman has rattled off five top-10 results over the first seven races of 2025, only finishing outside of it at Atlanta, a drafting track, and Martinsville, a flat short track.
Last year, Bowman tallied 17 top-10s - a clip of 47.2%, better than his 41.7% implied odds this week - including a top-10 finish at Homestead and another at Darlington.
Since the debut of the NextGen car in 2022, Bowman has a pair of top-10s at Darlington over five starts. With the No. 48 team seemingly trending up, especially at intermediates that feature lots of tire wear, Bowman’s patience could help him this weekend - especially if this turns into a high-attrition race.
🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Goodyear 400: Noah Gragson top-10 finish (+400 via Hard Rock) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Gragson’s outright odds are quite long, and, unsurprisingly, so are his top-10 odds. But with the market ranging from +260 (27.8%) at DraftKings to +400 (20%) at Hard Rock, the value on the latter line is far too high to pass up.
While neither Gragson nor his teammates posted top-10s at Homestead, Gragson finished 16th while Zane Smith finished 11th. Gragson even paced the team in average green-flag speed, ranking 15th overall.
He may need some help via attrition from the field, but Gragson’s dominance here in the Xfinity Series means he should have shorter odds. In a 38-car field, any driver has raw odds of 26.3% to score a top 10 - 6.3% less than the line at Hard Rock for Gragson.
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📈 Goodyear 400 trends & Darlington Raceway history
Here are a few Goodyear 400 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Darlington Raceway.
🏎️ Unlike many intermediates, long shots can win and have won at Darlington. In recent years, Chase Briscoe (Fall 2024), Erik Jones (Fall 2022), and Regan Smith (2011) stand out as winners who seemingly came out of left field.
🏎️ Don’t ignore qualifying speed. Since the NextGen car debuted in 2022, four of the six winners started from inside the first two rows. The two exceptions, Erik Jones and Kyle Larson, still started at least 18th. The last driver to win here after starting worse than 20th was Regan Smith.
🏎️ Cautions breed cautions. Unlike other intermediates - including Las Vegas (6.5 cautions per race over the last six races) and Homestead (5.3) - Darlington (7.8) features more on-track incidents, which can help longer-shot drivers cash tickets.
💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Darlington
Darlington Raceway is a truly unique venue, which makes it especially fun to bet on, but it compares best to low-speed intermediates. Here are my NASCAR betting strategy tips for Darlington:
- Sweat some long shots! Like a superspeedway, the high-attrition nature of Darlington can create some surprise winners. It’s safe to mix some into your card - just don’t put all your money on them to do so.
- Get some action down before qualifying, and keep an eye out for overreactions (or underreactions). Qualifying and short-run speed has meant much here of late, expect guys who qualify well to see their odds shorten–and if they don’t, take advantage.
🏆 Past Goodyear 400 winners
Here is a look at the last 10 Goodyear 400 winners entering Sunday's race.
| Year | Driver | Team | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2024 | Chase Briscoe | Ford | Stewart-Haas Racing |
| Spring 2024 | Brad Keselowski | Ford | RFK Racing |
| Fall 2023 | Kyle Larson | Chevrolet | Hendrick Motorsports |
| Spring 2023 | William Byron | Chevrolet | Hendrick Motorsports |
| Fall 2022 | Erik Jones | Chevrolet | LEGACY Motor Club |
| Spring 2022 | Joey Logano | Ford | Team Penske |
| Fall 2021 | Denny Hamlin | Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| Spring 2021 | Martin Truex Jr. | Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
| Fall 2020 | Kevin Harvick | Ford | Stewart-Haas Racing |
| Summer 2020 2 | Denny Hamlin | Toyota | Joe Gibbs Racing |
📺 How to watch the 2025 Goodyear 400 at Darlington
📅 Race date: Sunday, April 6, 2025
🕒 Start time: 3 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Darlington Raceway (Darlington, S.C.)
📺 TV: FS1 | Streaming: Fox Sports App
❓ Goodyear 400 FAQs
Who is favored to win the 2025 Goodyear 400?
Kyle Larson is favored to win the Goodyear 400 at odds of +400 (20%) to +500 (16.7%), the latter price returning a $50 return on a $10 bet.
What are the odds for Darlington?
Kyle Larson (+425), Tyler Reddick (+650), Denny Hamlin (+700), and Ryan Blaney (+750) are other favorites at Darlington.
What time is the 2025 Goodyear 400?
The 2025 Goodyear 400 starts at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) on Sunday from Darlington Raceway.
How to watch the 2025 Goodyear 400
You can watch the Goodyear 400 on FS1 or stream it via the FOX Sports App.
Who won the last race at Darlington?
Chase Briscoe won the last race at Darlington win raceday odds of +4500.
🏁 Best NASCAR betting sites for Goodyear 400 at Darlington
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