Goodyear 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Can Byron Obtain Redemption at Darlington?
Celebrate Mother’s Day and NASCAR Throwback Weekend with our Goodyear 400 picks and predictions.
The NASCAR Cup Series descends on The Palmetto State this weekend for a race at one of the oldest speedways in the country. Darlington Raceway, otherwise known as “The Track Too Tough to Tame” will be adorned with throwback paint schemes on Sunday as NASCAR pays homage to the past during the Goodyear 400.
In last year’s race, William Byron appeared to be well on his way to victory after making a bold move to get past Joey Logano on a late restart. When the caution flew again, Logano returned the favor by sending Byron into the wall and driving off with the victory.
When it comes to handicapping Darlington Raceway, driver skillset is very heavily weighted. Because the track has not been repaved in decades, tire wear is a major factor. The drivers who are best able to take care of their equipment whilst maintaining speed are the ones to back.
Here are our best bets and 2023 Goodyear 400 picks for Sunday’s action at Darlington Raceway (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Goodyear 400 picks
- Outright winner: William Byron (+1000 via BetMGM) ⭐
- Top 3 finish: Martin Truex Jr. (+225 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐⭐
- Group C matchup: Joey Logano (+310 via SuperBook) vs. Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch and Bubba Wallace ⭐⭐⭐
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Goodyear 400 odds
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | SuperBook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +500 | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Denny Hamlin | +600 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +650 ❄️ | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| William Byron | +850 | +850 | +1000 🔥 | +900 |
| Tyler Reddick | +850 | +850 | +900 | +900 |
| Kyle Busch | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 | +1100 🔥 |
| Ross Chastain | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Christopher Bell | +1100 | +1200 🔥 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 | +1200 | +1100 ❄️ | +1200 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1400 | +1300 | +1400 | +1300 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 | +1200 | +1400 | +1100 ❄️ |
| Ryan Blaney | +2200 | +2500 🔥 | +1600 ❄️ | +2200 |
| Brad Keselowski | +3500 | +3500 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +4000 | +4000 | +2500 ❄️ | +4000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +4500 | +3500 ❄️ | +5000 🔥 | +4000 |
Check out our look at the NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds
Goodyear 400 predictions
Outright winner: William Byron (+1000 via BetMGM) ⭐
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After coming oh, so close to winning this race a year ago, Byron will be looking for some redemption on Sunday. The No. 24 team already has two wins under its belt this season. With how well Hendrick Motorsports and Chevrolet as a whole have been running, Byron figures to have a great shot at winning the Goodyear 400.
Darlington got the better of Byron early on in his NASCAR Cup Series career, as it has so many other young drivers in the past. Recently, however, he has shown tremendous improvement at navigating this egg-shaped oval.
Byron has finished fifth, fourth, 13th, and eighth in four of his last five starts here. The worst of those finishes was the same race that he came one lap away from winning before getting sent into the wall which caused a tire to go down last May.
He is only 25 years old, but Byron has proven himself to be more than competent when it comes to taking care of his tires and equipment at high speeds. For betting purposes, the 10-1 price at BetMGM stands alone as the best value in the market.
Top 3 finish: Martin Truex Jr. (+225 via SuperBook) ⭐⭐⭐
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Darlington Raceway was not very kind to Truex last year. That said, history would suggest that his two sub-top-20 results are not the norm at this track. In the eight Cup Series races directly prior to last year, Truex only finished outside of the top-15 once. He came home in the top 10 in five of those starts and won the Goodyear 400 in 2021.
When one narrows the sample size down to the last six Darlington races, Truex has an average finish of 14.0. His average driver rating of 111.7 leads the entire NASCAR Cup Series over that same span. Only three other drivers have an average rating north of 100 in the last six races.
Bettors also must consider the fact that the No. 19 team comes into Sunday’s race with momentum in tow. Truex got his first win in over a full year two weeks ago at Dover Motor Speedway and finished eighth last week at Kansas Speedway.
In addition, SuperBook’s +225 price on a top-3 finish for Truex is made that much more appealing by the fact that DraftKings is listing a +185 return on this same wager.
Group C matchup: Joey Logano (+310 via SuperBook) vs. Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace ⭐⭐⭐
How often does one find a defending race winner buried as a +310 long shot in a group matchup? Well, that is precisely the scenario when it comes to SuperBook’s Group C matchup this week. Despite winning the Goodyear 400 a year ago, Logano is priced as the underdog in a four-man race against Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, and Bubba Wallace.
The pricing on this prop becomes even more absurd when one considers Logano’s strong historical track record at Darlington Raceway. In the last 10 races at “The Lady in Black”, Logano has the second-best average finish (8.7) of any driver. The win from last spring is accompanied by three additional top-5 finishes since September 2018.
As for the other drivers in this group, Blaney and Wallace have traditionally struggled at Darlington. It would require a major turn of events for one of them to emerge victorious in Group C. Busch has a history of running well here, but he enters the weekend with three straight DNFs. The offseason switch to RCR could also play a factor in how well he performs.
While it’s true that the Fords have been struggling mightily this season compared to Chevrolet and Toyota, a demanding track like Darlington can turn season-long trends upside-down in a hurry. The +310 value on Logano is too good to pass up given his strong historical stats here.
Goodyear 400 race info
- Date: Sunday, May 14, 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Darlington Raceway, Darlington, SC
- TV: FS1
- Defending winner: Joey Logano
Goodyear 400 picks made 05/13/23 at 1 p.m. ET
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